COVID-19 Virus.

[Jerry_Atrick]

By that logic, are you saying you would prefer a Brazilian outcome, or US, or UK? Or are you saying people in those populations are somehow much more susceptible to the disease than Australians?

 

Also, are those numbers from the DHHS website or similar? Because, as of today, only 8 days later an increase of 1,303 cases, the number of deaths has increased by 148 which an a marginal basis is fatality rate of a staggering 11%.. (of course, not all those who died would have caught it in the last 8 days). But it is an average of 18.5/day which seems high, so I thought I would check. It was actually hard via google to find the cumulative deaths as at 17th August, but I finally found it here: https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/08/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-17-august-2020.pdf

 

If you look at the top right hand corner, the total COVID deaths in Victoria as at 17th August was 334, some 52 higher than the (mis)infographic.. or 18.4% higher than it claimed.

 

Of course, the numbers may have been restated since the screen scrape or whatever was used to compose the (mis)infographic, however, this is the page I got the PDF from and it was last updated on the 18th August, which is probably the numbers as reported: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-17-august-2020.

 

And that bit at the end stating chances of not dying, I would say looking at it, it is a photoshop or something.. Its font is different, its size proportions are at best unaesthetic and it is statistically meaningless comparing the total population with the chances of dying, because you would have to at least have a comparison to a non-locked down model or compare to a country that has not locked down and has similar geographics, demographics, environment (it is thought that it transmits at different rates in different climatic conditions), and of course population density dispersal. Then, you would have to split it between an upper and lower band of the probability of infection and then model the fatality rates within those bands, particularly more so if the capacity of medical resources will be exceeded, because as has been observe where they haven't been as hard, when areas turn away patients, the fatality rate soars.

 

If anything, as @octave points out, it is the probability of dying from the disease given the current restrictions you are being subjected to.. It would reason that if it were quoted, it would be a crude attempt to promote the government and its efforts because  despite the second outbreak, the government is doing a darned good job compared to most of the rest of the world at containing it.. so it should be continued until the numbers are down and when we can then ease things to being back to where they are with the other states. So it would be saying rather than Draconian Dan or Chairman Dan, it is Savior Dan (or CHO) - that is not necessarily my view, but what whoever authorised it would be trying to purport. Alternatively, it would be to try and stop a panic.

 

I took a look at the link quoted on the (mis)infographic and it is a landing page that does not seem to provide the information anywhere near that format and certainly no (mis)infographic. I clicked on a few links on the page and nothing I clicked on (including the full data report) approximated the type of (mis)infographic (you think they would publish it daily), nor quoted the total population of Victoria. @Subria, if you could provide a link to the actual infographic rather than what looks like a meme, it would clear things up a bit. FWIW, here is the link provided on the (mis)infographic: https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus

 

On another note, in the papers today was the first re-infection case: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53889823

 

And also, let's not forget, just because one doesn't die from the virus, doesn't mean it's not life changing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/19/we-know-too-little-about-covid-19-long-haulers-we-need-a-comprehensive-study.

 

And if course, a week is a long time in politics, and two weeks is an eternity, but this published an eternity ago is the latest I can find on polls about DA.. Of course, the only poll that matters is the one in which everyone can cast a vote: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/12/essential-poll-victorians-overwhelmingly-support-harsh-restrictions-to-curb-covid-second-wave.

 

I only looked that up because when I was on the phone to my mum and expressed a seeming about face of his popularity, she sounded genuinely perplexed, and she could hardly be described a die-hard Labor fan.

 

 

[edits to fix types and correct an auto-correct where I typed google and it was corrected to god - true dinks!]

Edited August 25, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[red750]

A quote from an email I received from the local Liberal state member, advising that the Liberals and Nationals will be voting against the extnsion:

 

"Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the Andrews Labor Government has been extending the State of Emergency in four-week blocks. However, the law states that there is a maximum six-month limit on a declaration of a State of Emergency, which is due to expire on 16 September 2020.
 
The reason why a declaration of a State of Emergency is strictly time limited is clear – because such massive government powers over the lives of Victorians must not be open-ended.
 
State of Emergency powers represent a significant erosion of individual freedom and are intended to operate for only a short period.

.

.

No government should write itself a "blank cheque" for such extraordinary powers over Victorians’ lives and livelihoods. Oversight and accountability are paramount."

[red750]

From a new interactive map supplied by DHHS in which you can select your own postcode to see your covid-19 'score'.Here's mine.

 

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, red750 said:

State of Emergency powers represent a significant erosion of individual freedom and are intended to operate for only a short period.

That is true, and we usually see a State of Emergency declared for things we know are usually short-lived, like bushfire and floods. However, this COVID thing is without precedent in modern times. Who knows when its effects will diminish. It is entirely possible that the State of Emergency legislation will be invoked on 17th September for a further period of up to six months, unless the pandemic eases right off before then.

 

No doubt the Conservatives are playing the Fear card. Next they'll be claiming that Labor want to take away our guns!

[Jerry_Atrick]

I would agree with the SoE being too long.. Anything can happen in 12 months and it would appear that parliament could not perform their role of scrutinising the government apart form inquries that the government consent to. Maybe quarterly or well defined conditions by which the SoE automatically expires should they be met within the 12 month period.

[pmccarthy]

They have to allow for mass psychology. If it is perceived as unreasonable then people will ignore the rules en masse. We are very close to that point, people are fed up with the restrictions, however intended.

[Bruce Tuncks]

On 24/08/2020 at 9:47 AM, octave said:

I gave the example of the man who traveled to the hot in NSW.   He spent a few hours in a pub and passed it on to other patrons https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/crossroads-hotel-covid-19-cluster-linked-to-melbourne-outbreak-20200714-p55c12.html

These patrons who became infected did not know this man and had no reason to suspect that they were at risk. 

That's just the sort of example I want, thanks Octave.  You obviously don't want to drink in a pub with a stranger is the lesson I take from that story.

[red750]

Yahoo news reports that 58 medical staff at Frankston hospital have proved positive and 700 are in isolation.

[Yenn]

We are hearing some funny figures from the media. I listen to the ABC news and this morning they were going on about Covid cases among health care workers in Victoria.

At one stage they said that 80$ of health care workers were infected, then they said that 80% of health care workers were infected at work.

I think the figures are not as the ABC says them, they are just sloppy about how they word their report. Maybe I am wrong and 80% of health care workers have been infected, but I don't think so.

Never believe what you hear and only believe half of what you see.

[Yenn]

I don't know what the death rate per million is in Victoria, but it is far higher in the USA and higher still in Chile, Peru, The UK, Swedan, Italy, Spain and horrendous in Belgium.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Comparing COVID success between areas should be done in like areas, like climates, like population density dispersal, etc. So comparing some of the above will not be a valid comparison.. especially by countries such as the USA and UK as while the cases and deaths are disproportionately high in Victoria compared to the rest of the country, the population is not.. so, for instance, comparing to all of the USA rather than the worst state you would be dividing by the total population of the USA rather than their worst state...

 

However, let's look at the numbers and they tell the story (population and deaths taken from google):

 

 

Country	Total Population	Fatalities	% of Population
Belgium	11,460,000	9,996	0.08723%
Brazil	209,500,000	117,000	0.05585%
Chile	18,730,000	10,958	0.05851%
Italy	60,360,000	35,445	0.05872%
Peru	31,990,000	28,001	0.08753%
Spain	46,940,000	28,924	0.06162%
Sweden	10,230,000	5,814	0.05683%
UK	66,650,000	41,433	0.06217%
USA	328,200,000	178,000	0.05424%
Victoria	6,359,000	438	0.00689%

 

The average percentage of population of all countries (bar the stateof Victoria) is

0.06474%

Clearly, Victoria has,  on average almost 10 times less the percentage of population killed by or with the Virus in the other countries named.. so, no, Victoria does not have anywhere near the highest rate of deaths per million population. As usual, the numbers tell the story.

 

(Jeez, I hope I didn't get the calculations wrong, I have a maths/stats test on Tuesday).

Edited August 26, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

And, even if you took all Victorian deaths as a percentage of the Melbourne population, because no doubt, that is where the majority of deaths would be (I suspect), you get:

 

Melbourne

4,936,000

438

0.00887%

 

So, about 8 times fewer than the average ofthe rest of the locations...

 

[Admin]

Beautiful day here in Melbourne, sun is out, 20 degrees, COVID numbers are down to double digits for the first time in months so what does everyone do...go out shopping, meet friends in the park and have a great time socialising together out in this beautiful day...People just don't get it, they are in a false sense of security so watch the numbers go back into triple digits in a week

[Bruce Tuncks]

I am still waiting for an example story about how a careful person caught the virus. The stories I have found are about how people went to a party or a pub or were in an old-folks nursing home or stuck at work in close proximity to an infected person. I reckon I can avoid all of those things at the moment. Good thing, this being retired huh.

[willedoo]

With the case of the three young women who traveled from Brisbane to Melbourne and back illegally, one of them went to a restaurant in Brisbane while having the virus. Three people sitting at a nearby table caught it from her, most likely just from virus laden aerosol as they were unknown to the infected girl. At the time, Queensland had two active cases, not community linked, and no current community transmission. The restaurant was following a Covid safe plan with hygiene and distancing. I'd say those three people were careful enough given the State's lack of cases at the time and caught it via some other person's stupidity. About the same risk we all take going to a supermarket.

 

One of the three at the other table worked in a nursing home, but luckily, all 100 residents tested negative. The only way to be truly careful is to stay home and never go out. You would also have to get your groceries delivered and then sanitize them while wearing PPE. For sure, high risk behaviour will increase chances of catching it

[Subria]

The stupidity of our draconian Govt knows no bounds as I found out today.

A mate of mine has an auto repair shop 500 k's Nth of Adelaide close to a popular tourist spot, he is flat out with work backing up cause his two mechanics are off sick ( no not the BUll shit Covid either) so I said look into me coming over for a month or so to help out (ex Mot Mech). Here's the rub. I have to get tested first and stay home till I get a neg result, I live solo in a Vict country town where there are NO Covid cases. If I test neg I can travel, I get the result on the day I fly over (own plane) direct to his several hundred acre property with strip. He lives alone. I then arrive have to get tested again  and have to quarantine for 14 days regardless, he has to also if I stay at his property. If clear I work for him. On return reverse the bullshit! Unbelievable! Is it any wonder we live in such a f***ed country!

[Admin]

I have $1,000 waiting to donate to a person who needs help with navigating in their own plane from Lilydale or Sunbury to Queensland 🤣

[Subria]

Scumbury to QLD?....hmmmmm😉😂

Edited August 29, 2020 by Subria

[red750]

Hold onto your hat and watch this 1956 film. Yes, there was a February 29th in 1956, I Googled the calendar. Watch till the end.

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Interesting film.. At first, I thought this may be a bogis production (I am still sceptical), but I can't find anything yet that debunks it...

 

[edit] instead there are a lot of films that apparently have predicted something pandemic-ey in 2020.

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

This is an interesting speech from ScoMo/SFM.. Definitely not trying to brush the drought/bushfires under the carpet... Although, didn't offer what was going to happen with those.. But from a COVID response perspective, I thought quite good.. He has talked the talk.. hopefully he can manage walking the walk...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v670gj5Sx88

[old man emu]

2 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Interesting film.. At first, I thought this may be a bogis production (I am still sceptical), but I can't find anything yet that debunks it...

 

[edit] instead there are a lot of films that apparently have predicted something pandemic-ey in 2020.

 

I'm sceptical, too. If I saw a reference to the clip and it showed a production date in the 1950's with that same voice-over, I'd say, "Wow!"

[Subria]

Very cleverly done to keep the fear & hysteria on the boil!😉

[Old Koreelah]

5 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

This is an interesting speech from ScoMo/SFM.. Definitely not trying to brush the drought/bushfires under the carpet... Although, didn't offer what was going to happen with those.. But from a COVID response perspective, I thought quite good.. He has talked the talk.. hopefully he can manage walking the walk...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v670gj5Sx88

This pandemic has been a godsend for ScoMo; all the incompetence and blatant corruption of his government has been quietly swept aside as he finally sounds Prime Ministerial. I must commend his handling of the emergency, particularly with his National Cabinet.

 

But...we should never forget that he lost precious weeks when he could have PREVENTED the virus getting into this country.

He could have done what Taiwan and Vietnam did: learned from previous epidemics escaping China and rapidly sealed their borders, saving their countries from the mess we are in.

[Admin]

The loss of those weeks was caused by the State Premiers. General health in each State is managed by the State Gov and currently Labour holds the power in the majority of Australian States and Territories. This creates enormous conflict with the Fed Gov who is LNP. What has been clearly evident in this pandemic is how much power the States think they have and exert against the Fed Gov when there is an apposing majority in the States. The Australian people have traditionally voted the opposites between Fed and State in the mind set of balance but in fact it causes conflict to the point that retards Australia's progression.

 

At the beginning of the pandemic the States banged their fists on their chests like neanderthals in fear of losing their perceived power and control against the Fed LNP, and they had the numbers. The Fed LNP tried to maintain harmony and let them have it however due to the continued stuff ups, especially by Daniel Andrews in Vic, we are only now beginning to see the Fed Gov exert their hidden massive constitutional power that they do hold and stuff the attempt to maintain harmonious working relationships with the States for the betterment of Australia and every Australian.

 

So the majority of your States stuffed up the beginning of the pandemic's impacts on Australia and have continued to do so throughout the course of the pandemic,  perhaps and hopefully that will now end.