Electric Cars - the discussion continues.

[Old Koreelah]

A seriously doubt government bureaucracies could keep up with the rate of change.

Standardization by market attrition seems to have happened in many areas.

RCA plugs, Floppy discs, USB, charging ports, etc. 

If a large manufacturer of EVs were to introduce a quickly-swapped battery pallet system, smaller ones might adopt it. 

Many smaller firms adopt and copy an existing standard to get a foot into the market; a good example is the D-Motor, which uses Jabiru engine mounts.

[Cosmick]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/victorian-plan-to-boost-zero-emission-cars/100108626

[Jerry_Atrick]

It does beggar belief what is wrong with Aussie politics, and, to be honest, the population that keep voting these morons in. Anyone whop believed an electric vehcle couldn't pull a boat or a van is just plain naff... Anyone who wants to tax EVs, and therefore cleaner air, is, well, an embicile (I know it means less petrol tax, but don't the federal government take petrol tax - or does the state also have dibs in - maybe they do as I recall QLD petrol was always cheaper than Vic petrol)...

[spacesailor]

Queensland fuel was subsidized.

When ever l went north l had to pay More than my nsw friend, who had a car registered in Queensland.

But lives here, ( in NSW   )  heaper rego and No annual wof check..

It would Not have passed the NSW fit for the road test at all,

loose steering, bad brakes, no front shocks, ( one broke  ) so took both off.

He didn,t care, just a cheap car that could be dumped and replaced for less than repaired. 

Boat diesel also subsidized  !, for lighting & cooking they said.

BUt if my friend payed for it, showing his Queensland address, we payed the lesser price.

Happy days floating around the Whitsunday lslands, and all the way to Cairns.

spacesailor

 

[onetrack]

Here's the general info on fuel taxes in Australia. There's no State taxes on fuel any more, but you pay GST on fuel.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_Australia

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by onetrack

[Jerry_Atrick]

Then why would the state government want an extra tax on electric vehicles? What revenue are they trying to make up that would be lost under the system?

 

Effin crazy! Must have a relative in the oil business..

[onetrack]

The Govts are worried that a surge in EV's will punch a huge hole in taxation income - as fuel taxes are no longer relevant to road use and road repair, they are now just a huge general revenue tax. 

The original reason for fuel tax was for the total FT income raised, be used to pay for new roads, upgrade existing roads and maintain older roads.

Today, new road building, road upgrades and road maintenance expenditure, are but a small percentage of the fuel excise and fuel GST income.

 

As far back as 1999, the then Minister for Transport, the Hon. John Anderson, was quoted as stating ...

 

"Fuel excise today is a source of general revenue, just like income and other taxes."

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by onetrack

[Jerry_Atrick]

But isn't the loss of revenue at the federal level? If the federal government are playing funny buggers and trying to reduce Vics share of the federal pot, he should call that out. If he needs the money, then he should look at spreading the cost across all vehicles - like a small increase in rego or something. Of course, there are currently more votes in the ICE engine users, but I would wager most ordinary people would think this is a bit short sighted (maybe I am too optimistic of our brethren).

 

In the UK, they are using rego (which does not include 3rd party insurance) and congestion charges to get people our of higher emmissions cars and it is working a treat. If I get a VXR8 (HSV Commodore), I am staring down a first year rego bill of $2245 and then £500/year after that. If I go all electric (or, presumably hydrogen), it is zero, plus there are no congestion or clean air charges.. But even my old Volvo V60, which was at 155gm/km CO2 emissions cost me £155/year. My XC90 costs me £220/year.

 

If I am in the UK whenI am ready to buy my next car, it is going to be electric (or Hydro)

Edited May 2, 2021 by Jerry_Atrick

[onetrack]

Yes, the loss is at Federal Govt level, and I think this move by the Victorian State Govt is a pretty sleazy underhand grab at increasing State revenue, and getting more of the fuel revenue directly.

 

The successive Federal Govts here have had regular navel-gazing attempts at examining fuel taxes, their distribution and their fairness - but the end result has always been the same - don't kill the goose that's laying the golden egg. All that has ever eventuated is fiddling at the edges with the excise and GST on fuel.

 

I reckon an upsurge in EV's will soon make them do something substantial, as far as reworking the fuel taxes go.

[onetrack]

IMO, NZ has the best system, specifically for heavy goods vehicles there - vehicle owners pay on a per-kilometre basis for road use. Only vehicles under 3.5 tonnes there, pay an annual rego fee.

I see no reason why this "pay-as-you-go" system couldn't be introduced into Australia, and extended to all vehicles, regardless of motive power or size.

As other Govts have done, the road fee could be tuned to emissions levels, and thus encourage the uptake of cleaner vehicles.

 

PAYG is a fair system, and directly represents the amount of road use (and therefore road wear and tear) by individuals as well as fleet vehicles, and therefore would greatly assist in working out the amount of road R&M required.

As the current system stands, the fleet owners and high annual km vehicle owners are benefiting over low km road users - because the aannual rego fee is the same for both.

 

The rego fee for the average car here is around $600-$800 annually, and a 2-axle 8/9 tonne truck is about $1300-$1500 annually - and all rego fees are a big burden for low-km road users.

Bigger trucks can run to $5000-$6000 in annual rego fees. As commercial vehicles get older, they tend to get used less, and some jobs don't require high kms annually (i.e. - crane trucks).

The user-pays system could be tailored, so individual roads traffic use is logged and tallied electronically, instead of the current system of using road counters, and trying to gain road use information from them.

 

We already have a major problem as regards a major increase in road train use in AU. But many Australian roads were built in the era where road trains were not in general use, and were largely restricted to specific, remote-location roads, where traffic levels were low.

But nowadays, road trains are in use everywhere (even in the cities, double trailers are common) and the roads need upgrading constantly. Once you get outside the Perth Metro area (about 50kms out), triple road trains are common, and even quad road trains in some areas.

Road train owners are benefiting most from the current system. A per-km fee applicable to the weight and number of wheels or axles would see a major increase in fairness across the system.

 

A truckie mate says there are rumours abounding that older trucks will be hit in the future with massive increases in annual rego, to encourage the uptake of newer and cleaner vehicles.

But that leaves the owners of older, low-km use vehicles in a tough spot, as they cannot justify the purchase of the latest technology, just for irregular or seasonal use. Many farm trucks fall into that category.

[pmccarthy]

There must be a big business in fiddling odometers.

[Jerry_Atrick]

The tech exists today that can centrally log kms driven per vehicle, and the tech also exists to detect when a vehicle has removed it or doesn't have ot affixed. So, the ability to l;evy a per km charge conveniently (i.e. without having to record kms and log them for 5 years; and not worrying about fiddling with odometers). It's not expensive and coudl be rolled out to new cars and retrofitted to existing cars over a period of time.

 

They have been talking about a per mile (we still use miles here) charge in the UK, but this would be on top of rego. The governments at all levels are trying to get people out of their cars and onto bicycles (obviously for some, the physical impediments are too much) despite the weather here not being as amenable as Aus (well, in Aus, the weather  can be pretty hostile to cyclists as well). The idea is to not stop cars, but greatly reduce their usage.

 

London as a couple of companies that rent cars by the hour or so and the local councils are required to give them free parkling spots. The idea is you rent a car (different sizes) for what you need and only when you need it. Of course, as they are private companies and the desire to turn a qick profit overtook the longer term vision, they have only been mildly taken up (in fact, I think now most of the rental sports have been removed). I looked into it, but it was a £50 registration fee per yearm and the hourly rate was roughly twice what a standard hourly rate would be if you rented a car from any of the big rental companies for a day.

 

Second hand cars, especially those over about 5 years old here are so cheap, I decided to buy a car instead..

[Marty_d]

In Tassie at least, probably other states too, there is one way that lower km users can get cheaper rego - the "special interest" vehicle class.

 

Mainly used for classic/vintage cars (but I've seen a few on just "old"), must be 30 years or more.  Allows the user to drive 104 days of the year, and costs $205 a year compared to $550-$700 depending on number of cylinders.

 

Interestingly, there's no mention of EV's in their online fees schedule - as they have 0 cylinders, are they $0 to register?? 

[onetrack]

The Chinese are coming! Tesla will be starting to look like a lame duck, once the Chinese get into their stride.

 

The Chinese have vowed to eliminate IC engines as fast as they can, but have stopped short of setting an exact year when they will do so - unlike the U.K. and Norway.

 

I think the Chinese realise the ambitions of many countries to go all-electric may not be achievable in the short time frames stipulated.

 

I think they're worried there is still a sizeable gap between current EV abilities, and current IC vehicle abilities. However, I personally think they believe the gap could be closed within a decade.

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/2021-byd-ea1-australias-sub-35000-electric-car-revealed/

 

 

[pmccarthy]

The mineral resources to make sufficient EVs may not be available. Or if they are, demand for them may cause international tensions, as did iron before WW2. So the rate of change may be slower than predicted or desired (by some).

[spacesailor]

Marty-d

All vehicles ' that have hydrolic brakes ' have cylinders !.

Also one Big one called the ' Master cylininder '.

spacesailor

[octave]

12 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

The mineral resources to make sufficient EVs may not be available. Or if they are, demand for them may cause international tensions, as did iron before WW2. So the rate of change may be slower than predicted or desired (by some).

 For a bit of an overview of what materials resources we are talking about.  

 

https://www.leadingthecharge.org.nz/do_we_have_enough_rare_earth_metals_for_evs

 

The issue is about batteries not EVs.  Of course EVs require large batteries therefore a large amount of resources but what we are talking about is batteries.  So often I have been on the receiving end of a lecture on just how evil lithium based batteries by someone happily typing away on their battery powered laptop.     

 

Lithium is not rare.  I believe that cobalt is one of the issues.   Tesla batteries (as of 2018) contained 2.9% cobalt.   There are issues around how cobalt is mined. 20% of cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and of this it is estimated that 15% to 30% is mined by problematic "artisanal" small scale mining.   It is crucial that battery manufacturers (EV, mobile phone etc) deal with this situation.   Tesla has already reduced the amount of cobalt in its batteries and has the ambition to totally replace it. (LG batteries contain 20% as of 2018).   

 

It is often erroneously said that EV batteries can not be recycled.  Many companies are already repurposing EV batteries for stationary power systems.   There are several fledgling EV battery recycling companies,  One issue is that recycling will not truly take off until there are enough end of life batteries to provide  enough material to build  viable businesses. 

 

As to the rate of change, I would suggest that change will be over the next 10 or 15 years.   It is simply not possible to change any quicker than this.   The change to EVs is inevitable, whether the electric motors are powered from a battery, hydrogen or some other source.   Electricity is just a better way to turn wheels.

 

I do not believe that everyone owning an EV will solve anything.    I think a large percentage of the population think they want to own a car but what they actually want is to be able to travel wherever they want at the exact time they want and in comfort and privacy.   For this privilege I  pay about $4000 a year (excluding the purchase  cost of the vehicle).   If I could secure comfortable travel when and where I want it for less than $4000 a year then I am in.     

 

The car is extremely inefficient proposition given the time it sits idle.   

 

I do think that we are in danger of becoming a backwater if we don't keep up with modern technology.   

 

On a slightly different rant, this is kind of weird. I have trouble understanding the motive.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-icing-vs-germany-meat-prank-pictures/

 

17 hours ago, onetrack said:

The Chinese are coming! Tesla will be starting to look like a lame duck, once the Chinese get into their stride.

 

 

I wouldn't underestimate Tesla's lead.     I do believe China will be a major force in EVs but I think Tesla still has the advantage for the next few years at least.  Hyundai is also doing impressive things.      I did buy some Tesla shares at a low price and they have done spectacularly well.  I did (and do) my research.    I also own shares in BYD and NIO so not playing favourites.

[spacesailor]

In the 50,s we in the English cities use 'trolly buses '. Used mainly on the old tram rail routs.

But 

They were not battery powered, All the ' light rail ' lines were torn up at great expense.

Then the ' trolly buses ' were dumped.

As they were not deemed ' good enough ' as people movers.

Now those Same spendthrift people are at it again !.

" put back the ' tram rails '  and call the  NEW tram ' Light rail '.

Happening in Parramatta city as l type this.

spacesailor

 

[pmccarthy]

I worked on a cobalt project a decade ago, in North Queensland. It is a big deposit. The company was acquired by Chinese interests and I have not followed what happened since.

[onetrack]

The greatest holdup to any vehicle manufacturing at present (EV or IC) is a lack of semi-conductors. Until the semi-conductor supply shortage is solved, the cobalt problem will be minor.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-semiconductor-shortage-is-here-to-stay-but-it-will-affect-chip-companies-differently-11618678056

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by onetrack

[octave]

The semi conductor shortage whilst being important will pass. Supply chains have been disrupted by covid but this will end.   Not all companies have been as badly affected.  

 

How Did Tesla Avoid the Chip Shortage?

 

 

[Yenn]

To go back to trams rather than trolley buses would be stupid. The trolley bus picked up its electrisity from overhead wires. rather like Qld rail electric trains. The advantage of the trolley bus over the tram, was that the passengers got on and off from the footpath, not as they do in Victoria, where they are still in the middle of the road and traffic has to give way to them as they cross the traffic lane to get to the footpath.

[octave]

It is interesting to see what China is up to regarding public transport.    

 

The City with 16,000 Electric Buses & 22,000 Electric Taxis

[spacesailor]

BUT

Some 0ne must be getting a BIG handout, to have the city disrupted so we can have a ' museum 'type transport system in Australia's major cities ( even with the upbeat name ).

A rose by any other name is still a rose !.

Wil the local motorist get the same 'iron' dust stains on their cars, as is happening in St Kilda Melbourne.

OR 

Is that still a secrete for a later surprise.

spacesailor 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

On 03/05/2021 at 10:05 AM, octave said:

I think a large percentage of the population think they want to own a car but what they actually want is to be able to travel wherever they want at the exact time they want and in comfort and privacy. 

Thatis the nub of it.. And sometimes for good reason. When I was working in Traralgon, my car went in for a service in Melbourne on Satruday but as the garage ran late, it wasn't available until the Tuesday. So, I shelpt from Spencer Street (I think) to Traralgon on the train one morning.. sat next to a dear old lady.. Problem was, she had some flatulence issue and I spent most of my time gasping for air (there didn't seem anywhere one could stand on this train). So, yes, there is good reason for wanting to travel in private comfort.

 

The problem is, without private ownership, models have been tried and have not yet been very successful. I think a bit of it is that it is MY car.. I take the analogy of private flying.. I can rent a PA28 or a myriad of other sorts, but there was always something satisfying about slipping the cover over the fuslage at the end of the evening knowing it was yours and no-one else (except in my case, well respected syndicate members) could bring harm to it..