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BREXIT.


Phil Perry
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  • 4 weeks later...

So Boris won the election, Labour got trounced. What will happen with Brexit? Where is Scotland going?

 

I hope they get something sorted out soon because my wife and I are going to the UK and France in June.

 

What I really need is for the pound to fall from it's present high value, so I can buy at a better rate, I haven't looked at the Euro yet.

 

 

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I would guess that Brtain leaves the EU by Jan 31 on the current deal, although Northen Ireland (or at least the DUP) would feel somewhat betrayed and I think BJ is happy to sacrifice Northern Ireland from the union to achieve his aim.

 

Scotland are going to be submitting the case for independence and I think that BJ is right to reject it; they had a vote a few years ago and decided to stay. When you stay in a country, you stay through thick and thin. But, I think it is the constitution is overhauled and treat the UK as a country with individual states (i.e. they federate) rather than the half-baked union it is today.

 

Britain will enter a transition period, which, apart from a bit more paperwork for people movement (for some reason Brits will have to get a foreign driver permit to drive in the EU, but on my Victorian licence, I won't need one). I hope the UK stays with the EASA, but for some reason, the European Court of Justice is seen as the fount of all evil, so it may not happen (also, why they included Euratom withdrawl perplexes me - just shows how bonkas Theresa May really is).

 

Yenn - I would imagine that the £ will strengthen a little - Economic stagnation has been mainly about the uncertainty of what is happening; Once that is over and businesses can plan, then the wheels start spinning again. However, there are serious headwind risks and I will see a lot of volatility in the £. As Britain enters a transition period, it starts to messy process of trade talks. Already messrs Macron and Merkel are talking tough.. and as the markets perceive the likelihood of a good trade deal or otherwise materialising, the £ will shift accordingly. And if the withdrawal agreement negotiations, even with BJ are anything to go by, it will be a rollecoaster still. Even when Britain exits the EU, Brexit will really have just started. I would imagine the £ will hold or climb slightly.. on a day by day basis you will get fluctuation, esp on and around withdrawal date, but I think as the challenges and cracks appear in the negotiation of the trade agreement, it will be a rocky ride for the £.

 

If you have time in your schedule, let me know - would be good to meet up..

 

 

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Somerset, that's not too far from Wales and Bristol area.

 

I reckon a lot of Scots would want to go it alone, and what fun that would be. A hard border to England would not be in the Scots best interest, it would be what is going to happen between Northern Ireland and Eire, I suppose.

 

What if the Welsh wanted to tag along?

 

 

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The political difference between Wales and Scotland is that Wales has been as much a part of Britain since 1282, when the death of Llywelyn ap Gruffudd led to the conquest of the Principality of Wales by King Edward I of England. Wales became part of the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707 and then the United Kingdom in 1801. Scotland was an independent nation until,again in 1707  Scotland entered into a political union with the Kingdom of England on 1 May 1707 to create the new Kingdom of Great Britain.

 

So Scotland is part of Great Britain by political decision, and can leave if it is the will of he people. Wales is part of Great Britain by ancient conquest and, like Yorkshire, Essex or Devon, can't just declare itself independent.

 

 

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Scotland was a political unions - no doubt. In fact, as I recall, it was James II of Scotland that was invited to be the King of England and Wales as James I that led to the Union. So, it effect. it was a reverse po;itical union. And while it was a political union, that doesn't autmoatically grant a policital cessation.

 

Firstly, it has been some 300 years of union and the passage of time alone itself would lead one to thinl this has passed from a mere political union to one of the people. The concept that Saxony could in a political referndum break away from Germany, or in a later political union, that of Australia in 1901 that say QLD could break away from Australia is absurd..

 

Secondly, In both cases, there was a separately constituted federal government overseeing matters deemed relevant to the federation while the original state/province governments oversaw matters local to their original boundaries. In Australia, of course, the cultures are very closely knitted, less so in the four states of Germany; Certainly in Germany the culture between the states has been morphing, they are distinct.

 

Unlike Australia or Germany, the UK did not officially federate. The English preoccupation with pragmatism (i.e. least disruption and cost) meant they thought, hey, let's run the union form Westminster (after all the Scottish King will now be based in London). As they have never federated properly, this has been perceived by the Scots as the English running them. It's understandable as no doubt, Aussies feel like Canberra runs them. The problem is, with little demarcation of federated and provincial matters, and with them all being decided in Westminster, guess what - they feel like Britain (England and Wales) feels like towards the EU. While this may have been more or less percception than reality is arguable on many counts, but no doubt, Margaret Thatcher cemented that perception into reality with her policies which seemed to cast misery on the Scots as she seemed to have perpetuated to today.  It should be remembered that the UK has had its fair share of Scottish Prime Ministers, but they are seen as largely symbolic. This actually gives credence to the poitical union being able to be broken up because each state of the union sees itself as a separate country.. What the UK must do if it wants to stop this nonsense that each of the countries is a separate country is to properly federate.

 

Which brings me to a third point - it is more than a union; The United Kingom is a country - there is a different legal system between the regions almost in the same way there is a different legal system between the states in Australia. There is one currency, one body of constitutional law (there is no constitution) that can extend and withdraw devolved powers. There is one currency (yes, thre is a Scottish Pound and the English Pound which are collectively the Pound Sterling). It is the United Kingdom that sign up to international treaties, not individual regions, etc. In fact, the United Kingom meets the UN definition of a nation state; neither England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland do.

 

In the last referendum, Nicola Sturgeon herself stated this was to be a once in a generation referendum; of course Brexit is not what most Scots want and defintely a material issue. However, at the end of the day, they signed up to stay in the union and one has to go through thick and thin; they knew they were the minority; they knew Brexit was an issue then and they still signed up. Als at the end of the day, Brexit is the exit from a tightly coupled treaty where sovereignty was never succeeded; through a sovereign process, powers wree transferred and through a sovereign process, those powers are being reclaimed - to the extent through another soveriegn process they will deem what powers they are willing to transfer/share for a subsequent trade deal. However, Scotland gave up their sovereignty in its entirety to join the United Kingdom - to forge a new soveriegnty. In other words, they lost their sovereignty and though that they no longer have the political power to take it back... It is not conquest that determines whether or not a politcal process such as Brexit can be taken; it is the loss of sovereignty - whether it was achieved politically, through conquest or some other means.

 

I don't think too many English care if Scotland separates anyway.. The bulk of the North Sea oil revenue has been taken.. The local Scottish economy is in tatters under Sturgeon's leadership; they would have to establish a central bank, a currency, a military, and education system, etc. The EU may let them in on humanitarian grounds otherwsie they will have to go through the membership process which will take at least 5 years.

 

However, I think if they referendum is refused or if the referendum is run and lost (not entirely unlikely), then real constitutional reform has to take place; which will take a long, long tim.

 

 

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Cynic!

 

You're just jealous of Queensland's magnificent infrastructure, all paid for by mining royalties collected by our far sighted state government, who plough it all back into critical infrastructure for the benefit of the common folk.

 

Tasmania could have had superhighways, high speed rail and even cheaper electricity, if only they opened up for foreign investors to build wood pulp mills, and clear old growth forests. Sadly, there isn't much coal or oil, otherwise you'd all be rich!

 

 

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Somerset, that's not too far from Wales and Bristol area.

 

I reckon a lot of Scots would want to go it alone, and what fun that would be. A hard border to England would not be in the Scots best interest, it would be what is going to happen between Northern Ireland and Eire, I suppose.

 

What if the Welsh wanted to tag along?

 

I am about 1 hour from Bristol...

 

Lot of Scots want to go alone... A lot of Scots want to stay.. They can't make their minds up..

 

I think the Welsh are a net drain on the purse... Have been working out how to cast them away since 1283 ?

 

Nah.. I like the Welsh.. Saves us convcit colony types from being at the bottom of the barrel ?

 

 

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I once asked a mate who still has a bit of a scottish accent why they didn't vote to leave the UK. His reply was that they were all on the dole, and that the english paid the dole.

 

Well he is a bit blunt, but it made sense to me. But to be honest, I have actually seen on telly that they are not all on the dole. There are some who are in the army and they play bagpipes at the tattoo. 

 

 

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I think you will find nomadpetes comment about the wonderful Qld infrastructure very tongue in cheek. I have lived half a century in Qld and am sure that must be the case . Given a few years we may catch up with Victoria, but only if Victoria stands still.

 

Jerry you are about an hour from Bristol, going on my experience of traffic flow there you must be an outer suburb. Definitely nowhere near Bath.

 

My brother in law lives near the M4 bridge over to Wales, Alveston or something like that and sister in law at LLanfapley, that's in the dreaded Wales.

 

I decided last time I was in the UK that Bristol is the worst place to drive, not too bad on a quiet weekend, but work day traffic and the lousy road signage makes it hell for a country bumpkin. Even worse than Brisbane on a wet night.

 

 

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IF

 

Scotland leaves England, will they take THEIR Union-Jack with them ?. (King James of Scotland had it made).

 

Will the Scots in uniform be taken to Europe. ( European taking  all armed forces ).

 

THEN England can walk into Scotland & reconquer the place. (No opposition ). LoL

 

The Jokes on them.

 

The same for Northan Island

 

spacesailor

 

 

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My point was, that in spite of all the glorified so called 'foreign investment' in all the mining/CSG, the Qld government has not been able to gain enough money from infamous mining industry, to spend very much at all on infrastructure for the common good.

 

The roads are terrible, the trains are narrow gauge (trams, really), the water supply is inadequate for the population, the electricity generation is all coal/CSG powered, the hospitals are a joke and the education system is barely adequate to meet the lowest of redneck standards.

 

 

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Ah, but they've produced some outstanding pollies.  George Christensen.  Pauline Hanson.  Clive Palmer.  Bob Katter.  Joh Bjelke-Petersen.

 

Whilst living in Melbourne since 1970.. ., Wifey and I often holidayed in QLD. . .  I recall seeing a bloke in Brisbane wearing a tee shirt which had a curious message on the front AND theback said

 

"Flo has one. . . . Joh IS one"

 

Can't imagine what that meant. . . .

 

 

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