Jump to content

BREXIT.


Phil Perry

Recommended Posts

Big Russ has been forgotten. Good.

 

Whoppers don't come into it now. they just have to say the opposition is going to ruin you and the country. The electorate gets frightened and votes for another heap of manure.

 

We are getting the politicians we deserve, but it hurts me to see how people can believe anything.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WE are easily fooled and THEY know it and continue to do it. Without crap newspapers it wouldn't work. Democracy is OK. It's just corrupted massively, and feared by tyrants and would be dictators. . INFORM the people and then you can trust them. Propaganda is used where truth would stop them in their tracks. Nev

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Being good with whoppers seems to be a pre-requisite for being a Country's leader these days.

 

I pondered to a farmer mate many decades ago, about why so many pollies were of advanced age. His answer? "It's because you don't learn to lie properly until you're 40!! - so you don't normally get elected until you're that age, at least!".

 

Re Scotland departing the Union - I seem to recall the place only has about 5M population? How do they think they're going to develop and pay for all the institutions they need, as a separate country, with only 5M population??

 

What are they going to do about raising an Air Force, an Army, a Navy?? - will they whip the hat around amongst the Great Unwashed and underemployed of Glasgow, so they can buy a single well-worn Harvard, to form their Air Force?? They live in (drunken, Scottish) dreams.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forget the provision of a military force, if Scotland leaves the Union, how will it maintain its world class universities which have produced some of the finest medicos and research scientists? In recent decades Scotland has enjoyed something of a cultural and economic renaissance, fueled in part by a resurgent financial services sector and the proceeds of North Sea oil and gas.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re Scotland departing the Union - I seem to recall the place only has about 5M population? How do they think they're going to develop and pay for all the institutions they need, as a separate country, with only 5M population??

 

That's a tricky one. Smaller countries exist ok but probably have their institutions historically built over a long period of time. Tourism and fishing maybe. I think the oil is almost run out.

 

What are they going to do about raising an Air Force, an Army, a Navy?? - will they whip the hat around amongst the Great Unwashed and underemployed of Glasgow, so they can buy a single well-worn Harvard, to form their Air Force??

 

That's an easy one, just join NATO. Among NATO members, Iceland has only a Coast Guard, Luxembourg has an airforce of one helicopter, Estonia has four Robinson R44's and one L-39, Latvian airforce consists of five helicopters. As long as they spend their required 2% of GDP on defence, NATO will look after Scotland. They'd be safe as houses with fellow NATO members England and it's American bases right next door.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tourism and fishing maybe

 

 

As I understood it, tourism is already the single biggest money earner for Britain combined. Scotland certainly is worthy of visiting if you're into barren, heather-covered, granite mountain ranges, of which they seem to have plenty.

 

I have to admit, the place is very scenic though, and obviously a lot of other people also find it so. But that tourism potential is only for about 5 mths of the year, the rest of the year, you can't see anything for rain and snow.

 

I was surprised to find a lot of beautiful beaches in Scotland - it's bit of shame you can't swim there, even in Summer, you need a wetsuit against the freezing water.

 

As for fishing, I thought all the North Sea Cod was just about fished out? I wouldn't be relying on oil and gas for income too much in the future, with the EV revolution almost upon us.

 

Even the Saudis have admitted they've seen the end of the Oil Age coming upon them rapidly, and are looking for renewable energy investments.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/18/where-did-all-the-cod-go-fish-chips-north-sea-sustainable-stocks

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

I wonder if it is really going to happen, only 4 days to go. I hear Britain has minted three million Brexit 50 pence coins.

 

It could be true that they are only 50 cents in the dollar.

 

Just wondering when to buy pounds as I am going over there mid year.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 IF Scotland breaks from Britain, it stays with the EU as will Ireland. IF Britain goes with Trump they will be done over big time. Tax IT's and WE will tax Auto's. It's ALREADY started. Britain Has ( Boris) &THE Problem.. Leaving the EU is just the beginning.. No wonder Harry is leaving. Nev

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 How much are you betting or is it just a term of phrase.?  Rhetorical question isn't it. . Our Gov't is part time governing and full time campaigning. Didn't they sack all the Public Servants just before Christmas? Great Xmas present.  There...... Public Servant ….Cop that. It'll teach you for being Unionised, voting Labor  and forget your legal Mary Jane as well, (Canberra Bubblers).. Nev

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Yenn, my view is it is impossible at this stage to predict. Remember, the UK imports way more than it exports to the EU, however, a lot of the supply chains for manufacturers both in the UK and Europe, especially car and aircraft, are vey tightly coupled. The services economy, which is the UK's largest, will be affected but less so. Note, it is doing it tough at the moment. So, it is going to be interesting to see how it pans out. The UK in the shorter term (say 2 years) stands to lose a lot of auto manufacturing; in the longer term it stands to lose a lot of aviatiom manufacturing. By the middle of next year, the currency will fluctuate on the whims of statements made by both sides of the negotiation table in terms of how good or bad free trade talks are going. At the moment, there is jostling about regulatory divergence. The EU rightly is saying the more the UK wants to diverge, the harder it will be to have a free trade agreement.

 

Then, there is the AUD.. The fortunes of that are probably more predictable, so I would base my decision on when to buy based on what you thing the Dingo Dollar is going to be doing. I don't know that much about FX markets to be honest, but what is the Aussie economic outlook.. that will give you a clue and that is probably best to use at this stage..

 

This advice is worth what you are paying me for it..

 

@Nev. Boris is not the problem - it is his stooges of his Cabinet. Also, technically at least, the EU has certain rules or such fiscal conditions have to be met before a country can be admitted. Prior to the Brexit referendum and then the negotiations of the withdrawal agreement, Scotland was told emphatically no concessions will be made (presumably in a feeble attempt to get Scotland to convince England and Wales that leaving the EU is not a great idea and stop the whole thing). No doubt, if Scotland were to leave the Union, the EU would allow circumvention of its rules - it always does.. I have no real skin in the game and as I am not UK born and bred, I feel somewhat objective to the whole thing.. but since I have moved here in the late 90's, my observation was that Europe was always more willing to bend the rules for its noisy continental countries than it was for its island nation member.. but maybe its becaue the UK has a culture of making pointless rules and dogmatically following them whreas certainly its noisy members don't.. and of course, its largest economic member is not to be upset under any circumstances - otherwise the whole thing will go broke. (OK - I have no evidence of the last bit).

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is an interview with Boris Johnson just before the 2015 British elections in which he talks about the EU from his experience as the head of the Daily Telegraph office in Brussels. You get the impression from the things he says that he saw the backroom bull that went on, but was never reported to the British public. Perhaps these experiences make him the best person to lean Britain out of the EU, because he has personal experience of why it is a failure.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I recall an article but bleedin well can't find it where a newly elected UK Greens MEP basically talks of his excitement of being elected and getting on with getting things done at at the end of his first day he was already jaded at how nothing gets done and how low the machinery works. There are (until the end of this week) 28 member states all with their own vested interests and historical powers to the original states to preserve their interests.. What could possibly go awry?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have had sad emails from Striefeneder ( Glasflugel ) and Lemke-Schneider ( LS) about how awful the bureaucracy is in Europe.

 

They need separate licenses, each costing many thousands, for every aspect of their work. For example, being responsible for AD's for gliders sold 50 years ago.

 

As a result, a glider owner here owner needs to pay a yearly fee to get the same old paperwork as they did last year. The last new thing on the Libelle was 20 years ago. What a nasty way to help kill off an industry. This is enforced by our own GFA, not that they have much choice.  Those Brussels bureaucrats are the only beneficiaries.

 

My take is that the only product of bureaucracy is poverty and the poms are well out of it, that is if they are smart enough to de-bureacratise as they leave.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every single thing I purchase from Europe seems to automatically come with massive hidden European taxes and costs included in it. Little wonder my preference is for dealing direct with China.

 

Even Japan is not immune from the EU disease. I once purchased some surplus U.S. military equipment from Okinawa - not realising it had to be shipped back to Japan before it could be shipped to Australia - and that there was a Japanese GST of 10% which had to paid, before the equipment could be trans-shipped to Australia.

 

Then there were another heap of hidden Japanese handling charges and fees, as well. Fortunately, I paid a very low price for the items, so I didn't lose a huge amount of my profit margin.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was working on implementing compliance with European regulations that were so poorly conveived and worded that when we asked the regulators what some of it meant, they basically said do your best to become compliant with the spirit of the reg.

 

When speaking to the regulator and we were going through the disclosure requirenents of certain types of transactions, I suggested they look at teh lanel on their shirt (which here is a mile long) and then asked him if he ever read it. His answer was no.. and he got the point....

 

Some of the regs and taxes/fees are world leading - some of it is self-indulgent carp..  Strike that! A lot of it is.. Of the literally billions the inndustry poured into being compliant with MiFID II, not one year afte rits implemntation, a very big open ended trust went under through imprudence of they type the reg was designed to stamp out - and they were compliant with the rules.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every single thing I purchase from Europe seems to automatically come with massive hidden European taxes and costs included in it. Little wonder my preference is for dealing direct with China.

 

Even Japan is not immune from the EU disease. I once purchased some surplus U.S. military equipment from Okinawa - not realising it had to be shipped back to Japan before it could be shipped to Australia - and that there was a Japanese GST of 10% which had to paid, before the equipment could be trans-shipped to Australia.

 

Then there were another heap of hidden Japanese handling charges and fees, as well. Fortunately, I paid a very low price for the items, so I didn't lose a huge amount of my profit margin.

 

Dealing with Europeans can be a catch sometimes. I've had them try to charge me VAT which doesn't apply to sales outside the EU. It's only chargeable to sales within the union. The sellers weren't doing anything dodgy; they just thought VAT applied to everything sold.

 

One experience of importing a MiG seat from Germany turned out to be a nightmare. Normally it would have cost about $140 USD postage through the German Post to be delivered straight to Australia post with no other fees. He packed it up and took it to the post office and was told the rules had changed so they could only take 20kg, not 30kg as previously. So he put it on DB Schenker air freight which cost an arm and a leg. Instead of being a postal item, it now became a raw import and I was charged almost $900 by our lot to have it released from the Brisbane Airport. Turned out not such a bargain after all.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anti-Brexit people are not afraid to use scare tactics to undermine Britain generating trade links with the USA, and no doubt, other Non-EU countries. Here's a line from an article by America's CNN:  https://www.ccn.com/post-brexit-bromance-between-donald-trump-and-boris-johnson-is-anything-but-guaranteed/

 

Let’s not forget about speculation that the U.S. is flooding British markets with food products that have a lower hygiene standard.

 

Lower hygiene standard? Because of the difference in USDA regulations and EU regulations on how eggs should be processed before the sale, the eggs produced in the UK become so different from US ones that, it would be illegal to sell British eggs in the US and vice verse. 

 

 

 

 

I picked up a jar of chopped garlic at Aldi. It was clearly marked "Product of China" I wonder how high Chinese food hygiene standards are. I's rather have XXXX than Corona.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Hi Folks!

 

A few points to stir the hornets nest...

 

Personally I've been appalled by this Brexit mess over in UK. I think its madness, the Brits have slit their own throats at the bidding of their demagogues.

 

Was reading the other day how their poster boy Mr Farrage used his final EU parliamentary speech to attack and lambast the institution as corrupt and venial. He will now gracefully retire on a lifelong pension from the institution he had decried as corrupt, to be paid by the British Taxpayer as part of the EU severance package. He has defended this pension and his intention to claim it in multiple media interviews.  I find it quite astonishing  that the British public could be so blindly conned by somebody  who clearly had so much to personally gain by Brexit.

 

Mr Boris de Pfeffel comes across as the most unscrupulous and least trustworthy politician in a profession known for such vices.  He has been caught abjectly lying to further his own agenda on multiple occasions in his career and private life.  The guiding  principle of his life seems to have been the pursuit of personal power. Im dumbfounded as to why  the electorate vote for such people?  Have the standards of public life fallen so low? Wouldn't a voter expect even a modicum of trust in their politicians? 

 

I suspect the Brexit campaign has played directly into the hands of a small group of economic brokers who will assume dominant roles  in import and export transactions across a range of commodities and services. I've seen this time and again around the world in countries which operate  outside of frameworks regulating international trade and commerce. And guess who benefits?

 

The next obvious stage the saga will be Scotzit. Five years ago  when the Scottish independence referendum was held I felt the best interests of Scotland lay within the UK ( not that the views of a bushman in the Northern Territory counted for much in that debate!). Now my view has completely changed. The Scots have as much a right to their own referendum and as much respect should be given to the result as Mr Johnson  insisted was given to the  very narrow and ambiguous Brexit referendum.  Of course Scotlands territorial North Sea oil  will be a major sticking point.  Brexit is also going to open huge issues in Northern Ireland and threatens to unravel  all the progress made under successive peace agreements.

 

So the legacy  of Mr Johnson's lust for power may well be the dissolution  of the United Kingdom.  I think this is really sad.

 

I hope he's worth it.

 

Alan

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@NT5224, I wonder exactly what Nigel Farage has to gain by leaving the EU.. I don't know what his personal interests are, but surely, if he simply resigned or stood down at the last MEP election, he could have retired blissfully on his pension even if the UK stayed in the EU.

 

I think the argument to stay in or leave the EU were fought on philosophical and ideological lines rather than any rationality. For example, no one could adequately quantify a simple question - what is the monetary cost to be in the EU verusus the monetary benefit and arrive at a net position. Of course, it is more ocmplicated than that, but once one understands the net cost or surplus, they can then talk about the other non-monetary obligations and rights/benefits.

 

The reality, much more damage to the UK economy has been done by the dithering of the previous PM.. Investment has been virtually on hold as has been any of the value-add employment (yes, less skilled labour market has been buoyant). I have seen not only more skilled positions come to the market, but the rates are up slightly as well..

 

With respect to Brexit playing to a small group of players - I think it is fair to say being in the EU felt like that, too. The CAP being the main exception, although it feels like that was to placate a small set of key agri-players in France and Italy rather than anything for the common good. Almost all political/regulatory developments from Europe were more selfserving of the EU Eurocrats/powerbase than actually for the greaster good. As mentioned earlier, literally billions had been spent by industries to conform to lofty and undecipherable regulations and directives - and there is still differences across the Union that make it not a level playing field.

 

BTW - it has been the EU's own actions, coupled with a sensationalistic press that have brought it upon themselves. Take EASA under Patrick Gordoux - a madman left unaccountable for 10 years despite UK protestations that he was wrecking the private side of GA with his harmonisation of regulating that sector of the industry to the same levels of CAT (RPT). Tjis highlighted how unaccountable the Eurocracy is - of course, until it awoke France who at the first hint of opposition, the EU announced a review - to be le by DGAC. Well, a lot of pilots who pown businesses that sell into or are integrated with business of the EU voted to leave - sometimes there is more than money at stake.

 

What are the downsides to leaving the EU? No doubt, EU imports will become more expensive as even if the government didn't want to tax imports, they will need to in order to pay for some of their promises. There will be job losses in manufacturing over the next 2 - 5 years as EU based companies repatriate their bases.. ALthough, if the £ takes another hit and with the already more flexible labour laws, there may be an incentive to keep them in the UK, so maybe not the job losses feared. The financial industry will be somewhat hit; although if as predicted by the nay-sayers, it would mean that the EU has to positively and blatantly discriminate against British institutions compared to other third country institutions.

 

And although I berate the level and complexity of regulation, there are higher standards for environmental, labour, cosumer and human rights than most other countries - although not all countries in the EU seem to really have to abide by all of them. Take the Eastern states and human rights or areas such as basic democracy (political independence of the judiciary in Poland I think, was one issue). It seems that money talks in all regimes...

 

What are the upsides? Well, we will have to wait and see. Sovereignty (which we already had) does not equal power. And a FTA with Australia won't compensate for a WTO arrangement with the EU. However, there have already been decisions taken that are in the face of current EU regulation, which one could aregue pursue British interests... Flybe has been subsidised to keep its regional routes open (although there is criticism as it may be that it is supporting poor commercial management, however, it is to ensure at least in the short term, people travelling regionally are not disadvantaged). Personally, I think that innovation can be better incubated, althought don't hold one's breath.. And of course, we have an extra c. £320m to £360m per week to play with.. I may go down to the casino tonight... The benefits will greatly depend on the way the conomy is managed privately and publicly.

 

Re BoJo's liar qualities, the words of many American friends of mine... Oh, Please! Are you telling me politicians don't lie for their own purposes? And also are you telling me politicians aren't self-serving oafs in it for their own aspirations of power, but are in it for unequivocal commitment to the masses? His private life is riddled with controversial relationships and probably kids he doesn't know he was.. But, as a politician, he has promised one thing... and delivered it when it looked like Westminster was paralysed - Brexit. That was his whole campaign.. "Get Brexit Done".. When asked what his policy was with respect to any subject, such as, improving the standard of living for destitude and battered women, his response would have been, as it was to everything else now, "This is not a time to talk about that.. People want me to GET BREXIT DONE." He is as polarising as Marmite (can't use vegemite as they don't have the same ad slogan): You love him or hate him... Well, actually.. I don't love or hate BoJo.. But then, I don't love or hate Marmite..

 

My concern is that all of this is happening against a backdrop of rising prejudice throughout the world, but also Europe.. particulalry more blatant popularism anf facism, racial abuse and anti-semetism.. Shades of the 30s are appearing again... and this is worrying...

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...