Electric Cars - the discussion continues.

[kgwilson]

1 minute ago, Old Koreelah said:

Those worried about disposing of old EV batteries should relax. They’ll still have lots of life left and will be snapped up by consumers to install in their homes, where they can soak up surplus daytime energy ready to sell at high prices on the spot market.

Tesla built battery recycling plants into their manufacturing process but to date have not recycled any of their batteries other than damaged ones as those from old Teslas are being repurposed in buildings.

[octave]

29 minutes ago, onetrack said:

During the night, the electrical load on power stations is low - but they're still running - so perhaps the EV's being recharged overnight will get their energy from this normally wasted power plant operation output.

 

I saw an interview on the Fully Charged Show.  This interview was in the control centre for the British grid.  The interviewer asked if the British grid could support EV adoption and the answer was yes for the foreseeable future. The controller mentioned how demand drops of at night.  The consumption graph forms a big dip which he referred to as the bath. He said the holly grail is to be able to fill the bath, in other words use that available power rather than curtailing generation. 

 

I was reading a study from the University of Sydney that stated this:  We show that the current Australian national grid can support HE and LE BEVs at 5–10% penetration for uncontrolled charging, and around 60–70% for controlled charging. Controlled charging also reduces electricity cost by up to around 4–6%."

 

This is with the grid as it is at the moment.   The grid tends to follow demand.   

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2022 by octave

[Marty_d]

Use your EV with your house solar and battery.  If you put on enough panels that you get more power than you need, then you charge your battery during the day while your EV is out, then charge the EV from the battery at night.  

[spacesailor]

But at night while you park your EV to charge it , ( after work ). & turn on your massive TV . for the news , start cooking ,electric stove , then go and have a long shower . electric hot-water. air conditioner ,

THEN 9 o-clock into bed . it Will be a while for the battery to get it,s charge back ,

From our Coal fired grid system.

spacesailor

 

[Marty_d]

9 minutes ago, spacesailor said:

it Will be a while for the battery to get it,s charge back ,

From our Coal fired grid system.

spacesailor

 

Spacey, the whole point is that your solar panels charge the battery during the day while you're not using much power.  Then the battery powers everything at night.  No coal needed.  (None in Tassie's grid in any case!)

[spacesailor]

SO how to charge a battery bank.

IN THE DARK.

I came across this problem with my silly backyard solar-bank system.

I use it in the evening & leave those POOR battery,s flat until the SUN comes up.

Whats the life of battery,s when flattened to 10 volts daily.

spacesailor

[onetrack]

Marty, you haven't explained how householders are going to be able to buy a house battery AND an EV?

 

With house batteries costing $15,000-$20,000 and EV's running around $45,000 to $206,000, it's looking like a changeover to an all-electric, self-sustaining household, is a pretty expensive deal.

[Jerry_Atrick]

with the price of electricity and petrol/diesel, they will pay for themselves in 6 months

[nomadpete]

Onetrack, please revise downward your costings.

I see ads on TV for house battery, solar panels and inverter, for $17k, installed. And few people will be buying $200k cars.

 

Yes, it is still a big investment, but must be amortised over the operational life of these items.

 

Although still early days, prices of new systems are coming down and the old fuels/gas/electricity are going up.  it looks like the overall daily cost won't break the bank for many people, when spread over years of operation.

[nomadpete]

PS

The national average power bill last year is $1700 PA. (W.A  and Canbrerra were over $2000).

Which, makes a possible break even point for a $17000 battery system, of ten years. So for any homebuyer expecting to live for more than ten years, it is a great bargain.

(Oversimplified, but you get my drift)

[pmccarthy]

Because the supply of minerals is limited, the price of electric batteries and cars will go up faster than any savings in energy costs.

[octave]

20 minutes ago, pmccarthy said:

Because the supply of minerals is limited, the price of electric batteries and cars will go up faster than any savings in energy costs.

 

Oil is a finite resource and as it dwindles it will become more expensive.     At least the minerals used in  EVs, PCs  phones and in numerous other products can be recycled but petrol can only be consumed once.   I don't think anyone is predicting that the price of petrol will not continue to rise.    If you are correct that the price of batteries will go up faster than the savings then EVs should start disappearing at some point.

Edited November 19, 2022 by octave

[nomadpete]

Regarding the "how will we ever recharge all those electric cars??" Hysteria.

 

Last year (2021) Australia had 17,000 MW of installed rooftop solar. To get an idea of that, Qld's biggest single generator power station, Kogan Ck, produces a max 700MW.

 

So, we are already heading towards having home made solar energy available without having to build massive coal fired power stations to charge elevtric cars. The way, I see it, city dwellers will jump at buying an electric car as their second car to run kids to school and do shopping, etc. The average Australian only averages about 60k per day, so they will seldom need a full recharge anyway, so will recharge for free from the rooftop.

 

[octave]

It is important that we don't think a transition to EVs will be all rainbows and unicorns. It is important to be hard headed and rational.    There is a lot of FUD around https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt#Definition    I find when I am discussing this issue with people I often get a sense that they basically just don't want anything to change.    They will often cycle through the same list of doubts or present scenarios that are not common such as I wont be able to tow my 40ft caravan through the outback only stopping twice for 2 minutes to refuel.  (my ford focus wouldn't do this either.)   

 

In reality those who promote the idea that EVs are useless or not the way of the future are just railing against the inevitable.   This definitely does not mean I think everyone must immediately go out and buy an EV.    At this point in time EVs do not suit everyone and in any case we cant ensure that kind of supply in a short time.

 

The market is a powerful influencer.   If the doubters are correct then EV sales will dwindle perhaps being something only bought by enthusiasts.

 

Here is a couple of interesting articles about Hertz rental cars in the US.

 

Hertz says Tesla fleet of rental EVs are 50 pct cheaper to maintain than fossil fuel cars

 

GM, Hertz make deal to deploy up to 175,000 EVs

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

[kgwilson]

That is definitely the biggest problem. Overcoming the fear of the present comfort zone we have all become used to. Anyone who has doubts will pick up on an issue that supports their fears and shout it from the rooftops. The term "Cherry picking" comes to mind. 

 

It is true than the infrastructure does not yet exist or it is inadequate. Range anxiety and charging times seem to be the biggest fears of all. These are being addressed right now as I have already pointed out with some EVs pipping the 1000km mark and 0 - 80% charge in 10 minutes or less.

 

I will not be buying an EV until my current ICE car bought new in 2012 dies. As the price of petrol/diesel increases and the EV availability increases along with range and charging time and price decreases the change may be quicker than I originally anticipated.

 

Whenever I get the opportunity I ask owners of EVs what they think and especially would they ditch the EV for a ICE car. The biggest whinge is initial price, the next that if they'd waited a bit they would have a lot more EV for the same money or the same for less. Not one person I have spoken to would go back to ICE citing better comfort, features, quietness, reliability, lack of maintenance requirements and especially power when needed. Hardly anyone mentioned environmental reasons. That may just be considered given. Most had some range anxiety when they first got their EV but they no longer have this problem and plan trips. Charging doesn't seem to be an issue with most owners even those with old very slow charging vehicles with small batteries. Commuting is a breeze and they plug the car in at night. About 1/2 those I've spoken to have had fast chargers installed at home. Some still have large ICE vehicles for long trips, holidays and towing boats & caravans etc but have plans to replace these long term with one of the new batch of Utes and trucks beginning to hit the market when they become available.

 

In the city environment one of the best features I like is you only consume a small amount of power to run the aircon, radio etc when sitting in city traffic while everyone around you is churning through fuel and pumping enormous amounts of CO & CO2 and other noxious gases into the atmosphere.

[octave]

I have now had time to read the Carbuzz article and I find a few things interesting.

 

Firstly lets look at the alarming headline.   In the original Bloomberg article headline is "Electric Truck Stops Will Need as Much Power as a Small Town" But in numerous rehashes of this article it is subtilty different.  "Tesla Semis Will Need More Electricity Than A Small Town To Charge"  It is a small difference but I think the Carbuzz headline is designed to make the reader think that a tesla semi requires this power rather than a recharge station charging many semis.

 

The sub heading in the original article is "Tesla rolls out its Semi next month, adding pressure on the trucking industry to go green. But grid upgrades must start now if the new era is to last."    This is an entirely reasonable statement.     The Carbuzz sub heading is " In the case of the Tesla Semi, it takes a village. Literally. "     So far they have not made it clear that that original statement applies to a truck charging facility where many trucks are charging simultaneously.

 

"Researchers have discovered that your typical highway charging station will need about as much power as a local pro sports stadium."

 

I am all for rigorous research, can I click on a link to read the original study? No link is provided.

 

I took the time to go to the website of the National Grid group and they seem quite supportive of the move to EVs    The article says (quite rightly in my view)   "We need to start making these investments now," Franey said. "We can't just wait for it to happen because the market is going to outpace the infrastructure."

 

 The article then says: 

Bloomberg Law (BL) insists that the amount of electricity consumed isn't a concern at all - so long as it's made cleanly. With cheap wind and solar power abound, only roughly 15% more demand would be added to global electricity consumption by 2040. Even if we stop making new gas-powered cars and trucks by 2030, something BL argues is highly optimistic. We're inclined to agree.

The challenge is best illustrated with an analogy. A fire hydrant can dump thousands of gallons of water out in minutes. This is the world's supply of electricity for EVs. A fire hose can push out hundreds of gallons of water in minutes. This is the world's charging infrastructure. Simply put, we need a bigger hose for further electrification to make sense.

 

Yep, that seems reasonable.  The mass electrification of our infrastructure will need enough generation and we will also need to improve the grid.  Conversely we will probably not need so many refineries or oil imports.  Just to digress briefly,  on my daily bike ride I ride on a road that goes between 2 sections of the Geelong refinery.    Inside the refinery grounds is a rather large electricity substation which is usually loudly buzzing away.     I have tried to find out how much electricity is required to refine one gallon of petrol.  The figures are extremely hard to find and estimates vary from a lot to a little.   I did find myself on the website of a business that provides technology to refineries.   It was promising that some new equipment that would save refineries energy.   It claimed it could save of around 40 TWh, I am not sure if this is at one refinery or across the whole industry and ocer what time period, either way it sounds like a lot.

 

The article says "In its findings, National Grid studied the fueling behaviors of 71 highway gas stops across highway corridors in both New York and Massachusetts. Those behaviors were then applied to its projections for EV adoption to get a rough idea of what peak electrical demand will look like."

 

Studying existing fueling behaviors' is interesting however we just have to accept that new technologies drive changes in behavior.     

 

I think the village or stadium analogies are a predication based on the idea that 50 EV semis may roll into the same charging facility and attempt to charge at the same time.  I wonder how many semis the average petrol station or roadhouse can refuel simultaneously.   By the way one of my pet hates is measuring quantities in football fields, villages or sports stadiums  In the US Tesla has been installing a network of Megawatt chargers for its Semi.    

 

The first deliveries of the Tesla semi are scheduled for Dec 1 the first customer being Pepsi.    Whilst as with the introduction of any new technology into a business there may be teething problems, I would expect that numbers have been crunched and the case for these vehicles proven in theory.  Time will tell whether the promised efficiencies and saving are achieved  But this is part of my point the market will decide.    People who are so sure it wont work will either be shown to be right or wrong.   

[octave]

54 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

In the city environment one of the best features I like is you only consume a small amount of power to run the aircon, radio etc when sitting in city traffic while everyone around you is churning through fuel and pumping enormous amounts of CO & CO2 and other noxious gases into the atmosphere

That reminds me of when we were visiting my son in NZ.  We went out to Zealandia (an open zoo sort of).   It was a a reasonably hot day and we had done heaps of walking up and down steep terrain.   When we started heading back to the Tesla my son got out his phone and turned on the air-conditioner.  By the time we reached the car it was lovely and cool inside.    On another occasion my wife and I borrowed his EV and found ourselves stuck in a traffic jam advancing a couple of metres at a time.  All around us were cars idling away, in gear, advance a little, out of gear to the sound of their throbbing engines.  Certainly less annoying in an EV 

[facthunter]

I don't think one can be comfortable with the current position as we IMPORT virtually ALL of our hydrocarbon fuels and we've had shortages before. We will never import wind or solar and Pump hydro can be on call as well as batteries etc. We just have to cut the BS and get organised. Outback isolated solar done properly could power mini cities at rock bottom cost, Grids COST and can fail. Nev

[spacesailor]

When you added up the cost of going ' green  ', you seem to have missed the ' solar panel ' installation cost.

About $ 8,000 without a subsidy. 

spacesailor

[Jerry_Atrick]

The reason why fossil fuels are so cheap in comparison is they don't have to pay the clean up costs of their pollution. This is also true of solar, but there is a lot less to clean up.

[onetrack]

Re the truck movements - trucks do tend to move all at once. Shipping movements are carried out on reasonably steady schedules. For East-West-East trucking in Australia, all the trucks bound for Perth leave Melbourne on a Friday night, so they can get into Perth Monday morning to unload.

 

Once unloaded, they generally all head off at similar times on Tuesdays so they can be in Melbourne to unload Thursday afternoon or Friday morning - and then load up Friday so they can head out again.

 

You can camp on the Eyre Hwy on the Nullarbor, or in Western South Australia, and 250-300 trucks will zoom past you during the night, all heading West or East. Many trucks time their arrival at a favourite roadhouses at mealtimes, so they don't miss out, because the kitchen is shut.

 

Another thing is, many long-distance truckies prefer to drive at night, because of reduced traffic density. I still think swappable batteries is going to be the way for electric trucks to go.

 

Edited November 20, 2022 by onetrack

[octave]

Good to see that whilst we discuss whether whether change is possible others are innovating.  

 

Volvo delivers first electric trucks with fossil-free steel

[onetrack]

Reading this article would put anyone off buying a Tesla - new or used - for good .....

 

I'd heard about the huge number of build quality issues with Teslas - but when you read of the actual problems from a first-hand account, it puts a whole new light on the company and their products.

 

Read the 11 replies - they're not actually replies, it's just the original poster continuing the story.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by onetrack

[Jerry_Atrick]

I have heard build quality issues with early Teslas, especially when they were having factory issues as well.. But I know a few people who have them - and they seem to like them.

 

 

[nomadpete]

A millennial Leyland P76 in the making?

 

Great car if you get a good one.