Consequences of the 2026 fuel crisis

[old man emu]

Every weekday morning during school term, two diesel-powered buses pass my place to begin their school runs, picking up kids from farms to take to teh schools in town. I don't know how long these pick-up routes are, but I suspect around 100 kms would not be too far wrong. Then in the afternoon they do the run in reverse direction. That's two buses, privately owned on a government contract. There are another three school runs for the local schools. There is also a run of 120 kms total or more to schools in Dubbo. 

 

The fuel mileage rate is no doubt a fixed amount in those contracts, and that amount would have been set at the beginning of the year. How will the bus company continue to operate with fuel prices rising as they are? The obvious thing is that the buses will stop running. That will mean that these kids will not be able to get to school. It is too inefficient for individual families to be driving their kids to and from school each day. I have a neighbour who lives "close" to town at about 25 kms. That's 100 kms per day taking the kids in the morning; coming home , and doing the same in the afternoon.

 

Will this fuel crisis spawn another generatiion of kids who miss out on a decent education, even though they might be home-schooled? Look at the current crop of under-18s whose education was disrtupted by COVID. Look at the social problems we got from that. 

[pmccarthy]

A friend who drives a big school bus found it is often empty or near empty, but the government contract does not allow a smaller bus nor to not run empty if there are no kids.

[old man emu]

Yeah, the buses run on pupil-free days, too.

[old man emu]

Just another consequence: I work in an OP Shop which gets a lot of its income from sales to caravaners. Last year we distributed $40,000 to local organisations. A lot of that money came from caravaners. If the fuel dries up, they won't be coming in to buy, so our ability to support the community will be less.

[old man emu]

Need and MRI? You might have to wait. MRI machines need Helium for their functioning. Guess where a lot of Helium comes from. The global helium supply is currently facing a significant, immediate disruption due to geopolitical conflict, with roughly one-third of global production halted after attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility.

[onetrack]

Helium always was in short supply, this war is war driving home how little the Earth has, by way of Helium reserves. Because Helium is so light and inert, any Helium produced without capture, escapes into Space, and is lost forever.

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

The spot Brent Crude price is still less that the peak post Covid and presumably from the Ukraine war.

 

 

As I understand, the issue is not the capacity to supply as much as the delivery because most of the ME oil comes out of the Persian gulf through Hormuz. So, it isn't even a case of turn around the ships and go another way. I am guessing there are no alternative ports/terminals they can use for transporting non-Iranian ME oil. According to Google. Iran is the 4th largest behind Saudi, UAE and Ira. These three could boost production and send the oil overland to ports/terminals in Saudi if there are any, and ship through the Red Sea., but the Houthis, who are Iranian backed, basically patrol the waters. 

 

The obvious conseuences of this energy crisis is a switch to renewabls and electrification. It may also put pressure on Ukraine as the west may well (as Chump has hinted) start taking on Russian oil - ooh.. wouldn't that bre great for his war chest. 

 

Recession is likely, and as the western governments have largely exhiaseted their reserves and debt ceilings, creating the soft landing as per the Covid/pre-Covd times is unlikely to be sustainable, but it may well hold off a full blown recession. 

 

Chump, though his alienation of his allies, and the growing resentment to the war at home maibkly because oif the inflationary and recessionary impact it will ahve, will put pressure on him to end it soon. He won't want to concede, so he will either find some "pallatble" story, or he will send the ground trrops in, which there are already reports. 

 

I can only see it ramping up at his stage.. Chump will want to end it ASAP and won't back down.  And one conseuence is it will hit a critical point where allies of both sides will need to get involved.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 11:38 AM by Jerry_Atrick

[red750]

The Iranians don't know the meaning of surrender and will fight to the last man.

[randomx]

Anyone else getting the feeling the fuel situation is gonna get a lot worse ?

And now with the latest in the war over the wkend , looks like that's all gonna be getting a lot worse too . Chumps so fulla shit and scatter brain it's mind blowing someone like that is even allowed in the gates over there let alone be the supposed leader of the free world. l seriously reckon the man is insane.

 

How's a lot of the Asia situation fuel wise eh ! Had no idea they were on such thin ground .

Any rate, l've been away last few wks but thinking l might head back earlier now and later this wk.

lt's getting too expensive gallivanting now 🙃 , especially towing , it went up another 20c just over the wkend here , round 325 now prob be higher later in the wk hate to think. Besides, they might start running out no idea but they reckon heaps of smaller towns nsw and vic have already ran out of diesel .

 

 

 

 

 

[old man emu]

The next thing to go will be the food deloivery services from take-away places. Thousands of Indians will be out of work!

 

I was asked to do a couple of jobs in Sydney, but I am considering cancelling them due to the uncertainty of fuel supply. I don't want to be stuck in Sydney out of fuel.

[willedoo]

It will be a big hit to the Grey Nomad economy. The Nomads are parking up at a time when they would normally be starting to get on the move. Also the Easter bookings are way down. Cat and dog boarding kennels have plenty of extra space if you want to book Fido in. They'd normally be booked up this time of year.

[onetrack]

Interestingly, the caravanners are cancelling their trips for mainly two reasons - One, they're scared of being stuck with no fuel - and Two, a lot feel that they shouldn't be "wasting" fuel on unnecessary trips, thus depriving farmers and other critical users of their fuel requirements. The exorbitant pricing doesn't actually seem to bother a lot of people.

[Marty_d]

5 hours ago, old man emu said:

The next thing to go will be the food deloivery services from take-away places. Thousands of Indians will be out of work!

 

I was asked to do a couple of jobs in Sydney, but I am considering cancelling them due to the uncertainty of fuel supply. I don't want to be stuck in Sydney out of fuel.

I'd assume capital cities, especially major ones like Sydney, would be the last to stop getting fuel.

[red750]

It's bin day tomorrow. Interesting to see if they collect.

[facthunter]

Fuel will always be more expensive in remote areas. Lower quantities and higher transport costs. Nev

[Siso]

Maybe the metro area should pay more tax on it. Pay for some of the public transport infrastructure that they have and shoul have access to. Make it high enough and it will also encourage them to use it. Win Win!

[facthunter]

 Where there's lots of People you  NEED and can afford the cost of good Public transport to get across Town.  Tradies etc have to carry their gear long distances which Takes a lot of time in traffic..  Nev

[Siso]

They claim it on their tax

[Litespeed]

1 hour ago, Siso said:

They claim it on their tax

And mining and farmers have long been given a excise free ride on diesel before any tax deductions.

 

Never seen a toll road in the country areas but big cities are full of them.

 

I say the country folk get a very fair deal.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

The problem is the tolls aren't a tax, but a charge from private companies that, admittedly paid for the infrastrucutre - or some of it - and were awarded significant monopolies that provided a very handsome return - much more than if the government borrowed and paid it back Themn aas per the Mt Alexander Road "calming", the government spent tax dollars to fund roadworks to make alternatives to the toll unpallatable. 

 

On another note, on the BBC radio this morning, Albo will be halving fuel duty to help. 

 

More and more people want out of the UK and when they hear this, they want it even more. 

[old man emu]

38 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Albo will be halving fuel duty to help

Twenty-five cents per litre. We have 30 to 40 days' reserve supply of fuel, although reports are that we are getting refills from Asia. The removal of part of the excise won't be much good if there is no fuel to purchase.

 

Regarding public transport: The horse has well and truely bolted since we accepted the idea of suburban sprawl. You need roads to get to public transport hubs and infrastructure to provide parking for vehicles going to thjose hubs.

 

If there  is one thing that public transport illustrates it is the concept of Economy of Scale. Because of urban sprawl, there is not the scale in terms of population to make public transport economical. It does work in the older parts of our cities where popultion centres were developed before the expansion of car ownership, but those centres only house a small portion of an urban area's total population.