Sanctions against Russia

[Jerry_Atrick]

I thought the Russians also said they weren't going to invade and the west's reaction was an overreaction... Seems he fooled the west again....

[willedoo]

Going by all the news reports coming in, it's looking like he might be going the full monty. It makes more sense than what he was saying yesterday about only going into the relatively small rebel held area. That just didn't pass the cost vs benefit test. Now it looks like he's copping the cost to go for more benefit. This would have to be his biggest gamble yet. I doubt he would be doing it if he didn't have the long term financial backing and support of China. With what those two countries have going on between them, Russia is not far off being able to give the west the flick economically. Time will tell, but there's a big chance this will backfire on him.

[Marty_d]

There's a huge risk for NATO either way.  If sanctions are all that they're going to do, then the prize of Ukraine will more than make up for them.  Plus then Putin (and any other dictator/president) will know that the West will back down in the face of aggressive military action.

On the other hand, if they intervene, then it's got the potential to go real bad real fast.  Right now I'm kind of glad I don't live anywhere in Europe.

[red750]

Video posted on Tik-Tok and reposted on FB shows a hole blown in the wall of a Kyiv primary school. Some military target!

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes.. though to be honest, I would not take anything on social media on its face value as videos can be edited.

 

I am prepping for the move back to Aus regardless of employment situation. As Marty says, santions will mean jack poo compared to the bihgger prize... and the west will not like to be seen to back down on this one, I fear...

 

 

[willedoo]

Unverified news reports just now say Russian troops are on the outskirts of Kiev. Other reports say Kharkov is under Russian control. Looking very much like the talked about scenario of capturing the capital and installing a puppet government.

[Jerry_Atrick]

If this is the case, then one has to ask why Ukraine did not put up more resistance... They woudl have done it faster than the Taliban did to Kabul.

[Jerry_Atrick]

BoJo has just said...

 

"Socially, diplomatically, economically, and if necessary, militarily, this must end....".

 

If there wasn't the potential of this to escalate to a nuclear war,, I wouldn't be so worried...

 

Unfortunately, BoJo is no Winston or Margaret...

[willedoo]

This plane that went down near Kiev looks like an Antonov An-30 surveillance plane. Ukraine only has three An-30's.

 

 

[red750]

CNN footage show Russian soldiers at a Ukraninian airfield flown in on a group of Russian helicopters.

[red750]

Rusia threatens nuclear retaliation if anyone intervenes.

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/truth-vladimir-putin-threat-nato-forces-ukraine-064530611.html

[old man emu]

I don't get the sense in this goal of Putin's: Putin is not fooling around, he is on a mission to achieve his objectives in Ukraine to turn Ukraine into neutralised buffer zone."

 

Who would be so foolish as to ignore the experiences of Napoleon and Hitler in trying to conquer Russia? Russia has the protection of Marena,  a Slavic goddess and the only one that connects Nav (Slavic version of Hell) to Earth and Nebo (Slavic version of Heaven). When talking about her one must remember that despite being gruesome and sometimes clearly evil, she is the mother goddess of all Slavic people. She rules the winter and that is the time when she lives on Earth.

 

Western European countries have more on their plates than the contemplation of conquering Russia. Although those countries are members of the EU, I doubt if centuries of rivalries have been put aside simply by an economic collaboration. In fact the memory of the first half of the 20th Century would still linger. That only leaves two nations that could invade Russia, the USA and China.  We all consider that the USA would attack from the direction of Europe, but it's only a stone's throw from Alaska to the eastern provinces of Russia in Siberia. Similarly, China would have to cross the vast distances of Siberia. But China is aligned to Russia by a similar political system.

 

So, who does Putin fear so much that he needs a buffer zone? 

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, old man emu said:

So, who does Putin fear so much that he needs a buffer zone? 

In his mind, it's the Americans. Putin sees NATO and a lot of the European countries as being puppets of the Americans. Also on his mind is the fact that what he sees as a US driven NATO has form when it comes to attacking other nations who have not threatened NATO and are outside NATO's defence zone. He knows NATO has a track record of attacking other countries using the excuse of humanitarian intervention, eg: the destruction of Libya and Yugoslavia to name just two.

 

Other factors driving Putin's thinking is simple geography. He compares maps of the early 90's where the Russian Federation had a large buffer zone compred to those of today where a lot of near neighbours are now NATO countries. The recent installation of US/NATO missile bases in Romania and Poland really p*ssed him off. That was magnified when Trump tore up the intermediate range nuclear treaty which previously banned strategic missiles within the range of 500 to 5,500 kilometres. That treaty was the only thing keeping Europe relatively safe from the prospect of nuclear war.

 

Trump said Russia had breached the treaty so he was tearing it up. Russia's missile had a range of about ten or fifteen kilometers short of 500. While Trump might not have liked it, it was technically legal. The Russians offered the US the chance to send inspectors to verify the range of their missile, but the US refused the offer.

 

After Trump abandoned the treaty, the US went on to develop missiles in that range. A cynical person would say they abandoned the treaty so they could arm themselves with them. Who knows. With NATO countries close to Russia's borders, US missiles in that range located close enough to Russia can have a very short flight time. Putin quite rightly sees the potential of US nuclear missiles with a ten to fifteen minute flight time to Moscow as an existential threat to the Russian Federation.

 

The US under Trump also changed their launch 'only if launched against' nuclear policy to one of first strike if an enemy launch is suspected. Until then, Russia had it written in their constitution that they would only launch nuclear missiles if the enemy launched first. So Russia, in response to the US move, also adopted the right to first strike. Since that time, Putin has declared that Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons against conventional attacks if those attacks constitute an existential threat to Russia or it's allies. Trump and the US, as well as Putin, bear some ownership of the deterioration of stability in Europe.

 

Putin, in his way of thinking, has also been getting increasingly exasperated with the US approach to talks and negotiations between the two parties. He sees the US as not being genuine in their desire for talks to succeed. In his view, the US comes to the conference table not with an open mind and a desire for compromise, but rather with a big stick of threats and ultimatums. He's had enough of being talked down to. It looks like after getting snubbed on his recent security guarantee proposals, he's making sure they start to take Russia seriously.

 

Current and recent US administrations have handled the Russia issue badly. The rot started with Obama when he declared Russia to be a spent force not worth worrying about and has continued since. The problem is not the presidents, but rather the people advising them on Russia. The skill level and knowledge of those people is poor. Going back to George W. and beyond to the Cold War period, the US administrations had very good, professional Russia experts on their teams. It could never be said about the amateurs they employ today.

 

Another thing in the mix with Putin is sanctions. This lot are the 101'st tranche of sanctions against them. Since they started, Russia has had to learn to adapt in a sanctioned world and has until this point, thrived economically. American overuse of sanctions has killed the goose that laid the golden egg for the US. They have very little left to throw at Putin without nuclear war. It was always going to come to the point where there are so many sanctions on Russia that Putin has very little left to lose. That's when he thinks he can do what he wants.

 

The US hasn't used their sanctions wisely. They've applied too many, too lightly, too often, and squandered a lot of their sanctioning power. A lot have been applied with so called evidence of wrongdoing not being made public and verified. When questioned about evidence, US authorities always say they can't release the information as it would compromise national security, but trust us, it's true. Case in point is the election interference saga. The frequent, too light and flippant overuse of sanctions has brought Putin to the stage where he thinks the US will just keep applying them no matter what Russia does. So now he doesn't care about sanctions any more. He thinks if he's going to cop sanctions regularly, no matter what, that he might as well go for it and make them all worthwhile.

 

I still think this will backfire on Putin, at least in the long term if not soon.

Edited February 25, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

This is the problem when dealing with a large nuclear power. If Ukraine was being attacked by a similar strength foe, NATO and the US would probably have intervened already. They didn't think twice about intervening to beat the cr*p out of Libya and Yugoslavia on humanitarian grounds. You can't blame US/NATO for not wanting to start a nuclear war, but it's understandable that Ukraine now feels like it's been thrown under the bus by the West.

 

The US played it's part in grooming Ukraine for compliant regime change using the carrot and stick of possible NATO and EU membership, and has now left them holding the can. Here's some of Ukraine President Zelensky's comments on the subject this morning:

“I asked them – are you with us? They answered that they are with us, but they don’t want to take us into the alliance. I’ve asked 27 leaders of Europe, if Ukraine will be in NATO, I’ve asked them directly — all are afraid and did not respond. We were left by ourselves. Who is ready to go to war for us? Honestly, I don’t see anybody. Who is ready to give Ukraine guarantees of NATO membership? Honestly, everybody is afraid. We are not not afraid of Russia, we are not afraid to talk with Russia, talk about everything: security guarantees for our country and a neutral status. But we are not in NATO now – what security guarantees will we have? Which countries will give them?”. He summed it up fairly well.

[old man emu]

6 hours ago, willedoo said:

Putin, in his way of thinking, has also been getting increasingly exasperated with the US approach to talks and negotiations between the two parties. Current and recent US administrations have handled the Russia issue badly. The rot started with Obama when he declared Russia to be a spent force not worth worrying about and has continued since. The problem is not the presidents, but rather the people advising them on Russia.

I suppose that you can't blame Putin for his way of thinking. There are a lot of countries who are exasperated by the attitude of the USA. These countries are sick and tired of hearing that the USA is the greatest country in the world, the Land of the Free, Home of the Brave. One only has to access any form of media to see that the USA isn't that. It's a dangerous place, both from the actions of disappointed populous to those of various arms of government. It's a country that can't curb its racism and misogyny like the rest of the civilised world. It's attitude to unlawful activity makes the Inquisition look like a pleasant discussion over a glass of Rioja

[Bruce Tuncks]

I read that both the us and nato guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for signing away the nukes they had.

If this is true , then Australia is bloody stupid for not building nukes ourselves.

Well that is what I recommend..  thousands of nukes carried by ground-hugging Jabiru drones , with no electronic navigation stuff at all.

We would not need much of an army or nave then huh.

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

Russia signed too....

[willedoo]

38 minutes ago, old man emu said:

I suppose that you can't blame Putin for his way of thinking. There are a lot of countries who are exasperated by the attitude of the USA. These countries are sick and tired of hearing that the USA is the greatest country in the world, the Land of the Free, Home of the Brave. One only has to access any form of media to see that the USA isn't that. It's a dangerous place, both from the actions of disappointed populous to those of various arms of government. It's a country that can't curb its racism and misogyny like the rest of the civilised world. It's attitude to unlawful activity makes the Inquisition look like a pleasant discussion over a glass of Rioja

What Putin has done is inexcusable. But I wonder when the dust settles, will the Americans start asking themselves some questions. Like how did we get to this, could we have done things differently and better, could we have talked to the Russians instead of talking at them.

[old man emu]

13 minutes ago, willedoo said:

But I wonder when the dust settles, will the Americans start asking themselves some questions.

Not on your Nellie. Not until their despicable regime collapses from within their own borders. And then they will blame someone else.

[willedoo]

Russian military have unblocked the North Crimean Canal and the water is flowing again to Crimea. The canal comes off the Dnieper River not far up from it's mouth at the Black Sea. Ukraine dammed the canal in 2014 to cut off water supplies to Crimea. Water has been a big problem for Crimea since that time. The Russian Ministry of Defence is going to destroy the dam completely. The attached screen grab shows the dam not far north of the Crimean border.

 

 

[willedoo]

Russian forces have captured Hostomel airport located in north west Kiev and landed paratroopers. Hostomel is the Antonov Airlines base and the location of Antonov's production plant.

[kgwilson]

If it ends up as a nuclear stoush we are all f@#$d. The UK & US have plenty of nuclear subs with dozens of nuclear missiles, each with several warheads. They could be sneaking through the Baltic as we speak. With Putins threat to use Nukes even if there is a conventional attack by the West the only way out is to let him have Ukraine. Ukraine has around 200,000 regular troops but a far inferior arsenal of troops, equipment and firepower than Russia. Still they can give Putin a bloody nose and images and reports of dead Russian soldiers will bolster opposition to him.

 

Personally I don't think he cares, like other megalomaniac Russian leaders before him especially Stalin. He wants Russia to be restored as a Superpower and the cost doesn't matter.

[Bruce Tuncks]

The russians are apparently finding it hard going to conquer ukraine. I read that some parts have gone back to ukraine, and certainly the Ukranian fighters  are well motivated. Some of the russian troops would have had their parents arrested for anti-putin protests, and that must affect their will to fight hard.

Those Ukranians sure don't like the Russians huh...  I once read that Hitler could have won the war when whole ukranian armies deserted to join the Germans. Instead of welcoming them, Hitler apparently treated them even worse than Stalin.

[Jerry_Atrick]

@Bruce Tuncks - the reports here have been that the Russians have found day 1 very difficult, that resistance has been strong, and interestingly, about 450 Russian soldiers have died, 3 fighter jets shot down, and the welcome of Russian liberators that Putin was expecting... has not quite materialised, even in the Donbass region. A Ukranian MP has taken arms of an AK-47 (how ironinc), and yes, the media here has been echoing the non-receptiveness of Nazi Germany of the Ukranians.

 

 

Quite Frankly, I can't understand why, in this altercation, the US is attracting so much attention. Russia has played a game here to invade Ukraine.. The US, as the main protagonist of Nato has called their bluff.. and somehow, this is the US's poor handling of things that has caused it? Oh, FFS. Let's not forget, it was Russia who amassed an invasion force along the Ukraine border. To use the vernacular of this forum, even Blind Freddy could see.. that they intended to invade.

 

And calling NATO an attacking force is not really accurate..Going into Afghanistan was even conceded by their Arab brothers as justified based on the Al Queda connection and the Taliban.. apparently too extreme for some pretty brutal regimes. In 2011, the Libyan invasion was authorised under UN security council's resolution of the 70's., so again, hardly an act of unilateral aggression. They gave Libya something like 25 years to clean up their act before they finally lost patience (and yes, it is more complicated than that...)

 

Putin claimed all along that Russia had no intention of invading.. Then they stooged a pullback of forces (some here said that put egg on the US/Nato's face).. only to a few days later.... invade. Now they are claiming they had no choice as their security was under threat.. though they not say by whom. To borrow a US phrase.. "Give me a break!". No previous mention of security threats - yes previous mention of Ukraine not joining NATO, which.,. ahem, they weren't (even though a sovereign state should be able to choose). In fact, NATO would have blocked it for the very reason it would have inflamed

 

Sorry, but people who seem to side with Russia, in this case, have egg on their face. I agree with KG.. another megalomaniac .. This one apparently is very happy to use the nuclear option. though, I don't believe it.. My worry is the biological option.

 

 

[facthunter]

Putin has clearly shown his WORD is worth nothing, regardless of the pro's and cons. Nev