Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

Williedoo, that businessman would have a hard job convincing me that his money was honestly earned. In the meantime, I would have russian POW's enjoying his mansions and yachts and chefs. So they could see how the other half lived.

I think he's genuine and fairly well respected around the world. He was too young to be one of the oligarchs created during the 1990's. He started out doing a bit of currency trading when he was still at uni, then went on to start up a bank. After that, he started buying up run down businesses in the commodities field, conglomerating them and turning them into blue chip portfolios. He's quite a significant philanthropist as well and spends a lot of money on social and charitable programs . It's also been said that workers in his coal mines were receiving four times the salary than neighbouring mines. All the good written about him has come from Western sources and not from Russian state media.

 

The ironic thing is, Italy has impounded his yacht because of an EU sanctions list, and as an EU member, they are probably bound to do so. Three years ago, Italy awarded him with their Order of the Star of Italy for his work in encouraging economic cooperation between the two countries. He has publicly spoken out against the war in Ukraine. I don't know a great lot about him, but he seems to be one of the good guys. I think it's more of a case where the EU has put a blanket ban on any Russian with wealth.

[willedoo]

Putin's misadventure seems to be bogging down. NATO has estimated up to 15,000 Russian troops lost. Add to that, around 25% of the field Generals and a swag of Colonels have been killed, as well as the Navy deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian Navy is claiming to have destroyed a large Russian landing ship. Other reports have said that the Ukrainian Army has launched a counter offensive around Kiev and are moving toward cutting the Russians off from their supply lines. Other reports are that the Russians are digging in defensive positions near Kiev.

 

It's looking like logistics will burst Putler's balloon. Supply lines for the Russians are easy in the south, but in the north, it looks like they're running out of everything. I've been keeping an eye on the facebook posts of a Kharkov journalist I have a very obscure, aviation related association with. Not long ago, he was in the basement with his family and other families, bunkered down and under siege. His last facebook post was yesterday, and was a lengthy story about Kharkov domestic politics and funding for local theaters. A pile of theater workers and actors had just held a street protest with placards giving the local governor a bit of stick.

 

Two days before, his post had photos of him and his wife out and about and enjoying a street coffee for the first time since the siege began. All that tells me that the Russians bogged down on the outskirts of the city have run out of ammunition. It seems like the artillery has gone silent for a while. I think if Putler's military commanders can't keep up supply to a city almost on the Russian border, then they have Buckley's chance of subduing any significant part of Ukraine.

 

With a month gone by in the war, it's getting to be more of a humiliation for Putin as each day passes. The question is, will it drive him to do something stupider than what he's done already, or will they bump him off and do the world a favour.

Edited March 24, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

[willedoo]

There's been a lot of media reports and speculation that points to cracks appearing in the Kremlin. It appears that Putin is becoming increasingly paranoid and isolated, with all the hallmarks of a dictator struggling to hold onto power. The question is, who has the power to overthrow him. There's talk of a purge in the top ranks and unverified reports that the FSB commander in charge of the unit gathering intelligence on Ukraine is under house arrest. Also the possibility of other top officials in the same boat.

 

Defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, Putin's top supporter, hasn't been seen in public or heard from since 11th. March. He normally has a busy media profile, but has been missing for two weeks. As Defence Minister, he holds the rank of General of the Army and has overall responsibility for managing the war effort. Even though he has a flash uniform and is the highest ranking Army officer, he has no prior military experience. He's been a career politician and bureaucrat, having formally been Governor of Moscow Region and Emergency Services Minister. Compared to our system, it would be like giving Potato Head a shiny uniform and making him the commander of the ADF.

 

Other stories abound that Putin is furious about completely wrong security data assessments on Ukraine. It's looking like the security services and army generals have been telling him what he wants to hear, and not what he needs to know. One thing the war has done is to show the world that Russia has very limited capacity to wage conventional war. They have the gear and the troop numbers that all look good at the annual Victory Day parade, but now we're seeing the truth: incompetence and corruption at the top end of the military command and of the security services. It's looking like they don't have a command structure that can win this war. If the head is rotten, the body is not much use. The supposed second best army in the world is looking like the second best in Ukraine instead.

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

In today's news, good indications that Kiev will survive. In a defence briefing, the first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff has admitted victory. It looks like they are scaling back to concentrate on the Donbass region in the East. He said it's mostly mission accomplished in the North around Kiev. I guess if the mission was to destroy your own economy and lose a big portion of your military, then he would be right. Sounds like a case of fabricating victory from the jaws of defeat.

 

 

[onetrack]

Yep - Mission Accomplished, all the inhabitants subdued, and peace will reign in the subjugated country for years to come. Now, where have I heard that before? 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

Russian Navy losses so far are one landing ship totally destroyed and two damaged. The three ships were docked at Berdyansk in the Azov Sea. In the photo you can see the Saratov burning while the Caesar Kunikov and the Novocherkassk make a run for it, both trailing smoke. The three ships are all around the 4,000 tonne mark. I don't know how many missiles were fired, but unlucky for the Ukrainians that they couldn't destroy all three. Originally, they were bunched up fairly close together at the dock.

 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by willedoo

[facthunter]

ALL going to plan, they say.. Nev

[Marty_d]

If it means Poo Tin can save a bit of face, who cares.  The world knows it's just one more lie.  Now they'll hunker down in the Donbass and the Ukrainians, who know what's really going on, will do guerilla warfare on 'em for the next 20 years.  But Europe, seeing the danger posed by Russia, will toughen up defenses along the border countries.

 

All he's done is set the western world against him and weaken Russia's position in the world.  Nice one, you bare-chested horse-f*cking retard.

[Jerry_Atrick]

While China has yet to officially denounce the war,  at least one Chinese company, that is state backed, has paused dealing with Russia: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/

 

In addition, China is at least creating a perception that it is seeking to enforce some western sanctions, but there is still some skepticism: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-25/china-damps-u-s-concern-on-sanctions-by-drilling-into-details

 

 

[willedoo]

Ukraine has reported another Russian General has been killed. That would bring the number of regular Generals killed to six, or seven if you counted the Chechen General who was leading the Chechen units of the National Guard. Either way, it equates to one third of the Russian Generals in Ukraine killed.

[facthunter]

Putin has shown the World how his troops perform, even when they had overwhelming superiority. . Nev

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, facthunter said:

Putin has shown the World how his troops perform, even when they had overwhelming superiority. . Nev

It looks like poorly trained, badly led soldiers not really knowing what to do. The command structure of their military as a whole must have a lot of decay. There's reports that their airborne force is no longer combat capable, probably due to losses. Ukraine seems to have the right idea of cutting off the head.

 

A U.S. defence official has said the Russians have used up 50% of their precision-guided missile stocks, and that the failure rate of those launched is 20 to 60%. If they run out of them, dumb bombs won't be much use as using them will expose Russian planes to Ukrainian SAM's. If Putin doesn't stop this idiocy soon, he won't have much of a fighting force left. His big swinging d*ck idea has almost destroyed their economy and made their conventional forces a laughing stock. I just hope that if he goes for the big red button, they just quietly disappear him. It's ironic that the man who spent 20 years building the country up is the one who is now tearing it down.

[onetrack]

There's another Russian General that has apparently been killed by his own troops!  According to a claim by an unnamed "Western security and intelligence official" ....

 

"The commander of Russia's 37th Motor Rifle Brigade had been killed by his own troops, 'as a consequence of the scale of losses that had been taken by his brigade'.

'We believe he was killed by his own troops deliberately,' the official said, noting he was 'run over'. He added it was a further sign of 'morale challenges that Russian forces are having'.  

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-brigade-commander-killed-by-his-own-forces/

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by onetrack
added link ...

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

There's another Russian General that has apparently been killed by his own troops!  According to a claim by an unnamed "Western security and intelligence official" ....

 

"The commander of Russia's 37th Motor Rifle Brigade had been killed by his own troops, 'as a consequence of the scale of losses that had been taken by his brigade'.

'We believe he was killed by his own troops deliberately,' the official said, noting he was 'run over'. He added it was a further sign of 'morale challenges that Russian forces are having'.  

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-brigade-commander-killed-by-his-own-forces/

 

He was a Colonel, not a General apparently. There's been a big tally of Colonels killed as well. I wonder how big their Motor Rifle Brigades are.

 

Russian  officer ranks are similar to ours. Except they have three Lieutenant ranks instead of two, and no Brigadier. Instead, above Colonel, they have Major General, Lt. General, Colonel General, then General. Same number I suppose when you consider that our Brigadiers were once Brigadier Generals, making four General ranks.

Edited March 27, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

The Roos made it out. Screen grab of a video on Twitter; 8 kangaroos and wallabies evacuated from a wildlife park in Kharkov.

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

And they're sending the emus in:

[old man emu]

23 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

And they're sending the emus in:

The black chooks are gunna kick Putin's dunny down!

[willedoo]

There has been a fair bit of commentary about about corruption in the Russian military contributing to their relative lack of success in Ukraine. If true, it looks like nearly everyone has been skimming and stealing parts and equipment to make a quick Ruble. There are unverified reports that a Colonel commanding a storage base for mothballed armour and vehicles has killed himself. The story goes that the Army has been trying to bring equipment out of storage to replace losses in Ukraine. The reported problem is that not much of it is able to be restored due to stolen and missing parts, and lack of maintenance. High tech electronics have been stripped out for the valuable metals contained, and there have been cases of tanks and vehicles missing engines.

 

It's becoming more apparent by the day that underlings have provided Putin with the Emperor's new clothes. If he survives this, there no doubt will be big purges in the military, bureaucracy, security service and political spheres. Unless they get to him first and solve the problem.

[willedoo]

Looking at the way the Russian Army is functioning, it's hard to separate incompetence and corruption. They seem to have morphed into the one thing.

 

I read an interesting Twitter thread which shed a bit more light on the Russian's failure to take Kiev, particularly in relation to stalled convoys parked up on roads for extended periods. A lot has been written about shortages of fuel and food for the convoys, but not much about the tyre problem. The author of the thread is a former DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV vehicle exercise program at the manufacturing contractor point.

 

It appears that a lot of the wheeled vehicles sent to Ukraine had spent long periods parked up without exercising the tyres and central tire air inflation system. As we all know, tyres parked up in the one place for extended periods deteriorate, become brittle and are subject to failure. The Russian Army has a lot of gear, but doesn't have the funding for all of it to be in regular use, so a lot of it sits idle for months and military vehicles need to be moved and exercised at least monthly. Even exercising the central tire air inflation system will exercise the tyre sidewalls.

 

From an operational point of view, Putin's trucks and wheeled vehicles have neglected, faulty tyres. They may hold with high tyre pressure on a hard surfaced road, but are failing in an off road situation where lower pressures are required. Putin also picked the Spring thaw, mud season to invade. Not such a problem in the south east which is drier, harder country, but a big problem in the softer, northern areas around Kiev. With the snow melt turning to mud, the only way the Russian heavy wheeled vehicles can go off road is to drop tyre pressures which causes sidewall failure. If they leave the pressure up to save the tyre, they are getting bogged.

 

This has been restricting them to hard surfaced roads, which effectively makes the Russian attack front three vehicles wide. It makes it easy for the Ukrainians with tank busting weapons to stop a column coming toward them head on. The Ukrainians would have had a Turkey shoot if they had an effective, working air force.

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by willedoo

[onetrack]

I've seen plenty of surplus U.S. military equipment up for auction with absolutely and completely buggered tyres on them, despite the machines having done little work - only 200-300 hrs sometimes. The tyres had been let go flat, and it was obvious no-one was ever detailed to keep them aired up.

Most of the U.S. equipment was 20 to 30 years old. It was in good order otherwise.

I don't think the Russians would be alone in having military equipment failures due to degraded components such as rubber items, caused by laying around with minimal use, for 20 or more years.

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

On the subject of tank busters, the cost of warfare these days is staggering. I was reading that since the start of the war, Ukraine has received 5,000 Javelin anti tank guided missiles from various countries. At a cost of around 80,000 USD each, I figure that at 400 million dollars.

 

I don't know if it's accurate, but I read an estimated cost of 2 billion per day for Russia to wage the war. Either way, if the Ukrainians hold out, Russia will run out of money and equipment very soon. That might be why Putler is diverting troops down from Kharkov region in the north and from western areas to try to encircle Ukrainian troops on the frontline of the breakaway provinces. His last shot in the locker might be to try to secure the Donbass provinces and the Azov coast, so at least he gets something in return for his idiocy.

[onetrack]

I was having a think this morning (dangerous, I know), when I was in the new and secondhand tyre shop over the road from my workshop, getting some Bobcat and truck tyres dismounted.

I was looking around at their tyre stocks, when the blokes were busting their gut working on the tyres and rims (better them, than me!) - and it gradually dawned on me, just how much of our tyre supply today, comes from China.

 

China has slowly and surely taken over the No. 1 position in the world for tyre production - and they produce every type of tyre ever made, from wheelbarrow tyres, right through to mining truck tyres.

Of course, this has all been helped by the major tyre producers such as Bridgestone, Sumitomo, Firestone, Goodyear - and even Michelin - rushing to supply China with the technology and equipment needed to produce tyres. A large part of new tyre production is automated, although there is still a lot of labour required.

 

Regardless, China has the new tyre production industry sewn up. If push ever came to shove, and China got really nasty, I don't know what things would end up looking like - but I can pretty well guarantee it won't be a pretty sight, and our ability to react to any threat will return to the bad days of 1942, when the Japs controlled the worlds rubber output, and we were scrambling to save every scrap of rubber we could find, even to the extent of raiding rubbish tips for old tyres.

 

We no longer make a single tyre of any kind in Australia, and I personally believe this is very poor strategic planning that will more than likely come back to bite us.

[nomadpete]

One T, you are right. And that is the very reason for my general avoidance of thinking. Every tim I think, the path leads to depressing conclusions.

Our western culture is so shortsighted that we have made ourselves vulnerable to any one of a multitude of unpleasant outcomes. We cannot count on our government to plan for our future.(no matter which political flavor is in power). Small wonder that the doomsday prepper industry is growing.

 

Not only tyres. Many. Many essentials.

 

Fortunately I like wine. It is one of the very few things that we make here, and china's sanctions has made it ever more available to me.

[Marty_d]

Talk about finding the positives.  Well done Peter.