The climate change debate continues.

[willedoo]

Wind power globally produces less than 0.5% of our energy and is unlikely to become significant. 

 

Where does that figure come from?

 

"As at July 2018, wind power supplied around 33.5% of Australia's renewable electricity or 7.1% of Australia's total electricity, was sourced from wind power.[3

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia#Wind_power

 

One of you is quoting a global figure and the other is quoting a link in reference to the Australian percentage. You're not quite on the same page. Regardless, according to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, the amount of power provided by wind globally is almost six percent.

 

 

[pmccarthy]

Installed capacity globally, versus power actually delivered. I will find references tomorrow.

 

 

[octave]

Installed capacity globally, versus power actually delivered. I will find references tomorrow.

 

Methods of generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation

 

Figures from 2016

 

Coal 38.4%

 

Natural Gas 23.2% 

 

Hydro 16.3%

 

Nuclear Fission 10.4%

 

Oil 3.7%

 

Non Hydro Renewable 8%

 

PM I am not sure why you specifically quote figures for wind power as opposed to all low carbon sources of generation which is more relevant to the conversation

 

2016 World [civil] power generation by source [iEA, 2018] (Percentages of 24.973 TWh)[2

 

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/renewable-in-electricity-production-share.html

 

PM I am not sure why you specifically quote figures for wind power as opposed to all low carbon sources of generation which is more relevant to the conversation.

 

Some other interesting facts are:

 

Iceland 100% of its electricity from renewables mostly hydro and geothermal

 

Norway 97.9%

 

New Zealand 83.1%

 

Specifically wind and solar (excluding hydro and geothermal)

 

Germany 25%

 

Portugal 23.4%

 

Spain 23.3%

 

New Zealand 21.9%

 

UK 21.% 

 

Meanwhile in Australia:

 

In 2019, Australia met its 2020 renewable energy target of 23.5% and 33 terrawatt-hours (TWh).[1] Australia produced 378.7 PJ of overall renewable energy (including renewable electricity) in 2018 which accounted for 6.2% of Australia's total energy use (6,146 PJ).[2] Renewable energy grew by an annual average of 3.2% in the ten years between 2007-2017 and by 5.2% between 2016-2017. This contrasts to growth in coal (-1.9%), oil (1.7%) and gas (2.9%) over the same ten year period.[2] It is estimated that Australia produced 48,279 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of renewable electricity in 2018, which accounted for 21.3% of the total amount of electricity generated in Australia.[3]

 

Specifically wind power.

 

As at July 2018, wind power supplied around 33.5% of Australia's renewable electricity or 7.1% of Australia's total electricity, was sourced from wind power.[3] Nine new wind farms were commissioned in 2018 and as at the end of 2018 24 wind farms with a combined capacity of 5.9 GW were either under construction or financial committed nationally.[3]

 

 

[robinsm]

someone is forgetting the climates and available resources of the quoted countries.   We do not have the major rivers top spare for hydro,  or geothermal.   How does nuclear grab you, based in the out back away from population centres.

 

 

[octave]

someone is forgetting the climates and available resources of the quoted countries.   We do not have the major rivers top spare for hydro,  or geothermal.   How does nuclear grab you, based in the out back away from population centres.

 

 

 

Of course some countries do have natural advantages in terms of hydro or geothermal. Other countries have advantages in terms of other things like Britain when it comes to wind resources. Australia does also have some natural advantages also.

 

I don't have a problem with nuclear per se although nuclear as it stands at the moment is enormously costly and slow to build, it also requires expertise and money from other countries. Have a look at Hinkley Point C for instance. I am optimistic about some of the work Bill Gates is fundinding to develop smaller cheaper safer reactors such as the travelling wave reactors.

 

I believe our future power system will more than likely be very mixed rather than just relying on one source. Eventually something like fusion will probably become viable.

 

 

[pmccarthy]

The contribution of wind power globally is 2% and not the less than 0.5% I quoted, which I find was a few years out of date. The latest figures are from the report BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 68th edition

 

In this review, primary energy comprises commercially-traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.

 

MTOE is million tonnes of oil equivalent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MTOE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

 

 

 

4662.1

 

 

34%

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas

 

 

 

3309.4

 

 

24%

 

 

 

 

Coal

 

 

 

3772.1

 

 

27%

 

 

 

 

Nuclear

 

 

 

611.3

 

 

4%

 

 

 

 

Hydro

 

 

 

948.8

 

 

7%

 

 

 

 

Wind

 

 

 

287.4

 

 

2%

 

 

 

 

Solar

 

 

 

132.3

 

 

1%

 

 

 

 

Other renewables

 

 

 

141.6

 

 

1%

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

13865

 

 

100%

 

 

 

 

 

[octave]

The contribution of wind power globally is 2% and not the less than 0.5% I quoted, which I find was a few years out of date. The latest figures are from the report BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 68th edition

 

In this review, primary energy comprises commercially-traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.

 

MTOE is million tonnes of oil equivalent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MTOE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

 

 

 

4662.1

 

 

34%

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas

 

 

 

3309.4

 

 

24%

 

 

 

 

Coal

 

 

 

3772.1

 

 

27%

 

 

 

 

Nuclear

 

 

 

611.3

 

 

4%

 

 

 

 

Hydro

 

 

 

948.8

 

 

7%

 

 

 

 

Wind

 

 

 

287.4

 

 

2%

 

 

 

 

Solar

 

 

 

132.3

 

 

1%

 

 

 

 

Other renewables

 

 

 

141.6

 

 

1%

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

13865

 

 

100%

 

 

 

 

 

PM can you point me (with alink) to these figures. I am reading that report at the moment and cant immediately find those figures.

 

What I can find is this:

 

"Renewable electricity generation (excluding hydro) is estimated to account for 9.3% of global electricity generation in 2018. This year, renewables contributed with around a third of the of the growth in global power generation in 2017."

 

and

 

At the individual country level these sources are already playing an important role in some countries. As in previous years, Denmark leads, with 69% of power coming from renewables. Among the larger EU economies, the renewables share in power is 32% in Germany and the UK.

 

and:

 

The rapid growth of renewable power generation continued in 2018, with an increase of 14%. In volume terms, the largest increase was in China, accounting by almost 50% of the total increase at a global level. The Statistical Review provides further information in the form of consumption tables for solar, wind, and other renewables, and capacity tables for wind, solar and geothermal power.

 

Renewable power consumption grew by 14% in 2018, providing 9% of the world’s electricity.

 

and 

 

The share of renewable power in global power generation reached nearly 8.4% in 2017, almost doubling in five years from 4.6% in 2012. Renewables accounted for 12% of OECD power generation in 2017, compared to 6% in the non-OECD. While the aggregate shares remain low, for some individual countries renewables now contribute a significant share of power. Countries where renewables contribute more than 20% of the power generated include: Germany, Spain, UK, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, Finland, Ireland and New Zealand.

 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/renewable-energy.html

 

In any case 14% growth is pretty respectable I would say.

 

 

[nomadpete]

The climate change discussion is warming up.......

 

 

[octave]

And the renewable stats for Australia 2017-2018

 

"Renewable sources contributed 49,339 GWh (19%) of total electricity generation in 2018, an increase of 25% compared with 2017.

 

The largest source of renewable generation was hydro (7% of total generation) followed by wind (6%) and solar (5%)."

 

https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-electricity-generation-fuel-type-2017-18-and-2018

 

 

[pmccarthy]

Octave - Page 9 of the report has total world consumption at the bottom by type of energy. It rolls renewables into one item. To split out the renewables you need the table on page 52 which is expressed in terrawatt-hours. So you can proportion that out against the renewables item, from page 9.

 

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf

 

 

[willedoo]

Octave - Page 9 of the report has total world consumption at the bottom by type of energy. It rolls renewables into one item. To split out the renewables you need the table on page 52 which is expressed in terrawatt-hours. So you can proportion that out against the renewables item, from page 9.

 

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf

 

pm, I have to hand it to you - in the face of much adversity on this thread, you give it a good shot. Like a boxer on the ropes.

 

 

[octave]

Octave - Page 9 of the report has total world consumption at the bottom by type of energy. It rolls renewables into one item. To split out the renewables you need the table on page 52 which is expressed in terrawatt-hours. So you can proportion that out against the renewables item, from page 9.

 

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf

 

The figure quoted in the analysis of the report is 4.8%  for wind stated from within the report here, just scroll down to the section on wind power or perhaps even read the whole thing.

 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/renewable-energy.html.html#electricity-generation-from-renewables

 

My problem was with th 0.5% figure and your assertion that it will never be significant. In Australia we are actually doing much better than the global average with a 25% growth (in 2017)  in  renewables which contributed 19% in 2017 (Hydro 7% wind 6% and solar 5%)         Interestingly coal had a decrease of 3% in 2018 but still contributes  60%.

 

In #924 (can't get the quote function to work properly) you said "The world is heavily, heavily dependent on coal and oil and best estimates for a "safe" transition are 30-50 years. If that is your proposal, I agree." 

 

I pretty much agree, this is why we need to push progress so it is closer to 30 rather than 40 years.  

 

 

[octave]

After a rigorous round of debating and fact checking I like to treat myself to posting some positive news. Today, whats happening in Texas USA.

 

Texas proves that booming renewable energy doesn't bring electricity price Armageddon 

 

As climate threat looms, Texas Republicans have a solution: giant wind farm everywhere

 

 

 

[pmccarthy]

The figure quoted in the analysis of the report is 4.8%  for wind stated from within the report here, just scroll down to the section on wind power or perhaps even read the whole thing

 

I think we are at cross purposes between energy and electric power generation. 

 

 

[octave]

I think we are at cross purposes between energy and electric power generation. 

 

Wind power provides 4.8% global power, yes? 

 

 

[pmccarthy]

4.8% of electricity generation but 2% of energy. (Such as fuel for aircraft and vehicles).

 

 

[octave]

4.8% of electricity generation but 2% of energy. (Such as fuel for aircraft and vehicles).

 

I think it is taken as read that wind power does not contribute to powering aircraft.  Also coal does not contribute to powering aircraft.  I would say that wind power does power some road transport though. Just had a great time driving my son's Tesla, the cost to me, nothing. I did offer to pay but it amounted to a couple a beers. Charged at his home, NZ has around 84% renewables and the his electrical retailer only buys for wind and hydro. The cost about less than $4 per 100KM

 

 

[pmccarthy]

But....our economy depends on energy for all sorts of activities.

 

 

[octave]

But....our economy depends on energy for all sorts of activities.

 

 

 

Of course and I am willing to consider that method as long as it applies to the percentage of energy derived from coal in other words add every source of energy including gas, petrol and jet fuel and av gas and diesel and then work out what proportion of that energy was provided by coal.

 

The point is that different scenarios probably make sense when considering the overall picture but in terms of tackling emissions it makes sense to consider each sector and what can be done, For example some tasks are more difficult to tackle such as the airline industry with nothing really on the horizon at the moment.

 

I think it is easy to lose sight of the point being made. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe you were saying that wind power provides a miniscule amount of our overall energy needs this  is unlikely to change. The BP report mentions the yearly percentage growth at around 12-14% worldwide and in Australia a growth rate for all renewables of 25%  between 2017 and 2018 and a decrease for fossil fuels of 3%

 

In Australia in 2017 19% of energy generation was from renewables.

 

The point is renewables are a small but significant percentage of our power generation and they are growing. 

 

 

[pmccarthy]

And my point is that the strident calls for immediate 'de-carbonisation' are pointless posturing. The world is doing what it can, but we are dependent on fossil fuels for 85% of our energy. What would Greta have us do? Fossil fuels all produce carbon dioxide when burned. Why do you pick on coal in particular? I don’t think Greta or the other alarmists single it out. They want all fossil fuels stopped.

 

if we are going to destroy civilisation, and that is what would happen, we need a much stronger reason than any that can be derived from dodgy computer models and dishonest pseudo science. 

 

 

 

[Bruce]

There is likely to be a royal commission into the bushfires. What's the betting Tony Abbot will be given the job? Is he not unemployed at the moment?

 

 

[Bruce]

PMC, coal is pure carbon and it produces more CO2 for energy released than hydrogen-containing hydrocarbons. For example, methane CH4, produces one molecule of CO2 and 2 molecules of H2O .  I reckon you have known this stuff for many years.

 

Maybe the cheapest way to remove carbon from the atmosphere is to char and bury organic matter, this being the exact opposite of coal mining.

 

You are right in that all fossil fuels do release CO2 though. 

 

I like the report that Lithium-sulphur batteries will store 4 times as much as current Lithium batteries, and cheaper too. Gosh, cars and planes too will use them in preference to petroleum. We will run suburbs with them, and charge them up during the day.

 

Right now, the whole thing is in the " too good to be true " category for me.

 

 

[old man emu]

A 5kW solar panel system costs roughly $5000. A four-bedroom house costs about $200 - 250,000 (building only). If you did away with some of the "McMansion" inclusions,  solar panel systems for power and hot water could be included without raising the price of the building too much.

 

Back in 2008 , the estimated costs of building new coal plants have reached $USD3,500 per kW, without financing costs, and are still expected to increase further. This would mean a cost of well over $USD2 billion for a new 600 MW coal plant when financing costs are included. These cost increases have been driven by a worldwide competition for power plant design and construction resources, commodities, equipment and manufacturing capacity. Moreover, there is little reason to expect that this worldwide competition will end anytime in the foreseeable future.

 

At the rate of $USD3,500 per kW, a power station is 3.5 times more costly than a kW produced by a solar panel. Add the the power station's cost per kW, there's the initial and ongoing costs of maintaining a supply system - and we also know the dangers of wire transmission systems going through the bush. For a $2 billion outlay, 400,000 homes could be provided with solar panels. 

 

The only fly in the ointment is that industry and commerce don't have the air space available to produce the amount of electricity they need, so power stations are here to stay.

 

 

[onetrack]

Lithium-Sulphur batteries still have a long way to go, to get to commercial production. There have been many eager statements in the past over new and promising developments in technology, but they have nearly all failed the test of being able to reach commercial production, and reach satisfactory standards of performance in the field, over an extended period of time.

 

 

[facthunter]

To think the world is doing "all it reasonably CAN" is pure BS.. There's NEW possibilities Not despair and end of profit (except for Coal powered  generators eventually)  NEW ones are NOT economic. Old ones are unreliable. .Rockefellers got out of oil ages ago and even the Saudi's are selling out of it.. It's NOT the end of the world at all. Tourism employs about the same as mining does in Australia and mining will be increasingly mechanised and use robots. and off site control. Any extra oil we get should only be used here. 

 

      Foreign companies are the majority and renowned for paying no tax and doing a great deal of environmental damage they will never rectify. REAL costs of using carbon are NOT paid  Yes we are a joke and derided around the world and deserve to be. Per Capita we are second in the world as polluters of Carbon. Pulling your weight and. being fair counts. We all live on the same planet.  and Australia is known for it's standard of living  but HOW it's achieved is also of interest to the rest of the world IF it's done by unpopular and damaging means we will suffer. There's no avoiding it. Nev