Electric Cars - the discussion continues.

[facthunter]

Give them a bit more time. It's not as if there are no other problems needing addressing urgently.. Nev

[kgwilson]

Janus Electric had a prototype in 2020 & said they would begin operations in late 2021 between Sydney & Brisbane with Coffs Harbour being a major battery swap centre. The cost of conversion is about the same as a diesel overhaul and the trucks grill opens like a clamshell, the battery is quickly disconnected, removed by a forklift & a fully charged one put in all in under 4 minutes.

[octave]

According to Oil left in the world reserves/current consumption gives us 47 years of oil left.   Note this is at todays consumption and does not allow for the fact that each year there are more cars on the road.   Many countries have announced bans on the sale of NEW IC vehicles by around 2035.   The fact is that the change to EVs will not be complete for many many years. My car is 15 years old and going strong.    

 

Whilst 47 years of oil supply (based on todays usage) may seem like a long time, it is important to realize that as oil become more difficult to find it will also become more expensive.  Oil is necessary for producing chemicals etc.

 

47 years is not really a long time in human history, our children and grandchildren will certainly have to deal with these issues if we do not.   Whatever happens oil will run out.  We cant really adopt the attitude that we can wait until oil begins to run out and then have a cataclysmic change in the way we transport ourselves and the goods we rely on.  

 

Given the most favourable conditions the transition away from IC vehicles will take many decades and this is why we have to start now.    Those who seek to stop or slow down the transition are not doing society any favours. 

 

We should be working to make the transition as smooth and as cheap as possible.

 

 

[spacesailor]

This ' cataclysmic ' event, Will happen. 

A lot later !, if Bureaucracy loosen,s it,s strangle hold on what we drive.

I C engines can run on lots of different fuels !.

But are not allowed by THEM ,! That decree what the public can Have .

Has that GREEN fuel, that we thought was in the pipeline, been squashed by THEM , ( again  ).

No  ' bio  ' diesel fuel in Sydney .

I always look to see if available,  use chip fat diesel! , & cop a fine.

spacesailor

[octave]

As far as I can see the shift away from  IC powered vehicle in a legal sense is by the banning of the sales of NEW IC sales (around 2035. I suspect that any prescribing of the fuel used to drive a car will be determined by what comes out of the tailpipe.    

 

I suspect that as we approach 2035 there will be people who cling to petrol/deiseal engines whether it be driving a classic car or even just reluctance to move with the times.   These folks will be paying a premium to use old fashioned fuels.  

 

 

[onetrack]

Janus is on the right track with swappable batteries. In the same way that you'd never ever drag your LPG BBQ bottle around again, looking to refill it - and BBQ gas bottle swaps are pretty much the gas industry standard - so should all EV's have swappable batteries. No waiting around for a recharge, just slot the replacement battery in, and off you go. No longer wait than filling a tank with dino juice.

 

The problems with recharging at public recharge points will soon rear their ugly head, as hundreds of EV drivers queue up to hook onto an inadequate number of chargers.

You only have to see the vast numbers of petrol and diesel vehicles lining up to fill up at places such as Costco - who have fast refuelling down to a fine art - to understand that no amount of public charging infrastructure will ever cope, when everyone is driving an EV that has a fixed battery.

[octave]

For the most part EV owners prefer to charge at home.     As for public facilities with fast charging we are talking of 25 minute charge times. 

 

 I think one of the problems is the lack of imagination. We tend to believe that the only model of public charging is based on the current service station model.   Electricity is very widely distributed. In the city at least every street has street lights. (In Germany)  New technology turns any street lamp into a charging station 

 

On my daily bike ride I pass a Wool buyers and brokers where there are usually at least 3 EVs plugged into the businesses charger. 

 

 Many shopping car parks now have some chargers that you can plug into whilst you shop.     For a business this represents an opportunity.  If you are travelling in an EV you will most likely choose the motel that has charging facilities or choose to have lunch in the café or restaurant that can offer charging.

 

Here is a charging centre in Germany This Is The Craziest Electric Vehicle Charging Station In The World!

 

I can see the battery swap method working in some circumstances however there are drawbacks.  We would need to standardize all EVs to accommodate 1 particular battery style or at least minimize the number of different battery packs.  I can see this being more useful for commercial vehicle such as trucks.

 

When I eventually go EV I intend to mostly  use my excess solar (about 14000km worth per year).    Due to my particular lifestyle I should be able to mostly charge slowly which is good for battery life.  If I were to do a battery swap my concern would be how to swapped battery has been treated. 

 

On a long trip I would be happy to stop for 15-25 minutes (Tesla Level 3 supercharger).  It seems to be not much much longer than filling a car with fuel and going inside to pay. 

 

I suspect battery swap has its place but I think most EV drivers for most of their driving will simply plug in when they get home and set the charge for the cheapest tariff and drive to work the next day with a full battery.

 

 

[onetrack]

The Chinese are getting into battery swaps for EV's, so look out for some major changes to the charging regime. The advantage of battery swap technology is that it will be possible to purchase an EV with no battery, and only rent batteries and power as needed.

That has the potential to bring EV's down to the average persons purchasing power, very quickly - otherwise, we will all be waiting 2 or 3 decades for EV's to become affordable.

 

https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/tech-explained-ev-battery-swapping

[octave]

Battery leasing is already I thing with the Renault Zoe Should you buy or lease a battery for your electric car?     Whether the battery is leased or owned I think I would rather use my excess solar rather than pay a KWh price for someone else's electricity.  Whether you are leasing a battery or paying for it up front the one thing we can be certain of is the you will have to pay for it one way or the other.

 

Of course there is no argument here, these things are not mutually exclusive.  Whether I buy or lease a battery for an EV I am still going to charge it the cheapest and most convenient way.

[octave]

This is an interesting video on battery swapping in the US and demonstrates to pros and cons   Can EV Battery Swapping Take Off In The U.S.?

 

This company uses its own battery units although it can work with some manufacturers packs.    I think it may be an issue for some EVs.  Consider the new Tesla 4680 battery cells.  I don't think many would want to do away with this innovation.  Also the battery pack has now become a structural element of the car. Chucking a different battery pack in would not be possible.  Tesla did flirt with battery swapping back in 2013 but abandoned the idea. 

 

I see battery swaps as you wait as been suitable for some vehicles and owners.  Battery leasing does make sense in many cases (depending on km per year)   Paying for the battery over the life of the vehicle may suit many people.

 

[onetrack]

Tesla did not even remotely or seriously consider the battery-swap design, as Musk was dead against the idea from the word go, and refused to even entertain any major research money being spent on it.

His lip-service to the idea was to ask for a few Tesla owners to try it out - and of course, few did.

Musk is providing Superchargers for long distance travel in Teslas for free, but this idea is not supportable for the long term, it's an aberration designed to promote Tesla design, essentially a subsidy to make the Teslas look better than they do, for long distance travel.

Musk and Tesla will soon be seriously challenged by a lot of new EV entrants, and numbers of Musks ideas won't hold up for the long term.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/326869/elon-musk-comments-on-failed-tesla-battery-swap/

 

[octave]

2 hours ago, onetrack said:

Tesla did not even remotely or seriously consider the battery-swap design, as Musk was dead against the idea from the word go, and refused to even entertain any major research money being spent on it.

His lip-service to the idea was to ask for a few Tesla owners to try it out - and of course, few did.

 

I wouldn't say that Musk was dead against battery swap in the past.  I would agree that Tesla has little interest in battery swap now but this was not the case back in 2013-2914.

 

I am sure that battery swap will be useful for some drivers and some vehicles but it does rather hold back innovation if batteries must be standardized between manufacturers.  Battery swap capability would seem to rule out Structural batteries which make the vehicle lighter and increase range.  

 

For the average daily drive it is far cheaper and more convenient to plug in at home.  A battery swap may only take 5 minutes but plugging in a car at home only takes 30 seconds and is much cheaper.

 

As charging times have improved the benefit of a 5 minute battery change is not quite so attractive given the 15 minutes required at a supercharger.    

 

Superchargers can now recharge up to 200 miles of range in just 15 minutes, depending on the rate of charge. These DC charging speeds range from 90 kW to 250 kW, depending on which Supercharger pile you’re at.

While 250 kW is the current limit for Superchargers, Tesla has shared plans to increase DCFC charge speeds upwards to 300 kW."

 

 

 

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/videos/battery-swap-event

 

Tesla Unveils Automated 90-Second Battery Swap, But at What Cost?

 

STRUCTURAL BATTERIES: THE CARS OF THE FUTURE ARE GLUED

 

 

 

"Back in 2013, Tesla demonstrated a battery swap system on its Model S, changing out the battery in the same time it takes to fuel up an Audi sedan. It seemed like the next big innovation had arrived.

But then, the idea slowly faded away, as if nothing ever happened."

 

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by octave

[octave]

This is a great explanation of the disadvantages of battery swap.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyLU_jT-2v8

 

One of the downsides that I never considered is that we have at this time a limited supply of batteries.   Battery swap means that you need at the very least twice the number of batteries or to look at it another way, you can only make half the number of cars. 

 

 

[pmccarthy]

The limited number of batteries will become an overwhelming obstacle. We do not have enough minerals worldwide or access to them to make the batteries. Tell them they're dreaming,

[octave]

1 hour ago, pmccarthy said:

The limited number of batteries will become an overwhelming obstacle. We do not have enough minerals worldwide or access to them to make the batteries. Tell them they're dreaming,

 

A important factor here will be recycling.   

[red750]

I don't know if this is still the case, but earlier, the recharging plugs were not universal, so one make of car may not be recharged at a recharge station for another make.

[octave]

5 minutes ago, red750 said:

I don't know if this is still the case, but earlier, the recharging plugs were not universal, so one make of car may not be recharged at a recharge station for another make.

 

I think this used to be a problem however like other areas of electronics standards now apply.  In the EU type 2 plugs have been mandated.    Most cars these days are type 2 (Mennekes) connectors.    For older vehicles with type 1 or CHAdeMO  there are adapters.

[facthunter]

ICE  has been going for 140 years and is still being further developed but the fuels are finite and the demand will create further inequity, wars and unrest. There's enough sun, wind thermal and tides for everyone but we don't have forever to get our act together..IF you poo in your nest you can't continue to live in it.. Nev

[onetrack]

But the problem with home charging is that not everyone is home every night - particularly when you're travelling some distance.

So the need is there for charging stations (and charge capacity) to cover all those vehicles that are not home every night.

I fail to understand how Musk thinks he's going to be able to provide 250kW to 300kW charge speeds, via hundreds of thousands of charge stations needed - all required at night, when power generation levels are low with renewable energy, and at a time when there is also massive demand on the power network, for home power requirements.

[facthunter]

The Oil companies know how to CHARGE.

   Storage is the answer Your back up supply has to be quickly available. This BASELOAD Taylor talks of is BS. Grid electricity has to be synchronous or it collapses. Maybe the BIG grid is too expensive. Cost, storm repair and transmission losses? ALL  this can be determined and taken into account.. Nev

[octave]

9 minutes ago, onetrack said:

But the problem with home charging is that not everyone is home every night - particularly when you're travelling some distance.

Then you would charge during the day.   I would charge during the day from my rooftop solar.   Can you think of any reason why I would opt for battery swap over my own power system?  Others may charge at work or at the local shopping centre.  My nearest charging facility is at the local sports oval, I regularly see cars charging whilst the owner jogs around the oval or kicks a ball around with their kids.

 

16 minutes ago, onetrack said:

So the need is there for charging stations (and charge capacity) to cover all those vehicles that are not home every night.

 

Indeed there is and this is happening. Did you watch the video about the absolutely massive charging centre in Germany?

 

18 minutes ago, onetrack said:

I fail to understand how Musk thinks he's going to be able to provide 250kW to 300kW charge speeds, via hundreds of thousands of charge stations needed - all required at night, when power generation levels are low with renewable energy, and at a time when there is also massive demand on the power network, for home power requirements.

I don't quite understand why you specify at night.  Overnight charging is more in the realm of slow charging, granny lead or perhaps 7Kw chargers.    Super charging is more for the public charging network.  Charging at home at night has benefits for the grid.   I believe in grid management it is referred to as "filling  the bathtub" this refers to the graph of power usage which dips hugely overnight when people are in bed.  EVs charging in this low usage period helps the grids efficiency.  The technology is also developing for vehicle to grid and there are some systems up and running I believe.    Whether a car charges at home or at a public charger or swaps a battery the charging still happens.

 

Especially in Australia the uptake of rooftop solar has been remarkable.   There is so much solar power available that the grid on occasions can not deal with it, so then we have "curtailing"   Feed in Tariffs are now quite low. For me it makes sense to use what I am generating rather than to sell it at a low price.  Last year I exported 2.5MWh back to the grid for about 6 cents a KWh.  Putting this into my car would make more sense than paying for public charging except when absolutely necessary.

 

Of course I have the luxury of being retired and do not have to drive far most days.   

 

My son owns a Tesla and day to day plugs it in at home.   This vehicle has a longer range than some vehicles so he does not plug it in every night.   For longer road trips he uses the Tesla super charger network.  When he picked up his vehicle it was imported into Auckland and he lives in Wellington. he flew to Auckland to pick up the vehicle and drove home with one stop for lunch at a cafe which had plenty of chargers.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not totally anti battery swap, I just think it will be mainly useful for fleet vehicles and trucks. Outside of that my prediction is it will be a niche market.

 

I see many problems to overcome.

 

!)  Although the actual swap may only take 5 minutes this does rely on being able to drive straight in and not having to wait in a queue of other vehicles. To be fair and balanced this is also a problem for public chargers. Whilst it may only take 20-25 minutes to charge you may still have to wait for a charger to become free.   I am not sure how much a battery swap facility costs to build but I am betting you could build many chargers for the same price and on the same land footprint.

 

2) I believe wide spread battery swapping will rely on more standardization.  I have already talked about Teslas new 4680 battery packs that not only provide the power but are a structural part of the car.  This is much like the wings of plane are really just wing shaped fuel tanks.     My question would be should we give up this and future innovations merely to save 15 minutes at the charger.

 

3)    The current fleet of EVs as far as I know were not built with this in mind.  The business model of a swapping station would rely on future EVs being suitable for quick battery swaps.

 

4) EV adoption could be faster if battery production could keep pace.   This is improving and I know that Tesla is vertically integrating and investing in mining.     My question would be for each 100 EVs on the road how many batteries must be built?

The example of swapping gas bottles is not quite the same because gas bottles are all the same (other than capacities.)   Actually back in the day I used to go through loads of 9Kg cylinders of gas.   I seem to remember paying $30 to swap or $19 to get it filled. I opted for refilling rather than swapping.  One of the problems with gas cylinder swap is when the attendant hands you a cylinder that is just about to go out of date and you dont notice and then next time they wont swap it.

 

5)  I am curious about how the model works.  I understand that a company in the US is working on their own batteries that can be adapted for the many different EVs on the road.   Although I see this as having downsides  (not necessarily using the original chemistry that the car was built with or different battery types such as cylinders cells or pouches or blade batteries) I do believe that the only way it can work is either with one battery that can be adapted to many models or perhaps an easier solution would be to have vehicle specific swap stations.

 

6) Storage of spare  batteries would seem to be problematic.   In videos and pictures of these swapping stations they all appear neat and compact but a station that may perhaps do 20 swaps a day is going to need to store at least this number of spare batteries and that is assuming that each of these 20 batteries suits each of the 20 EVs.   Then of course unless these batteries are charged on site you have transport to consider.

 

It is actually not particularly a point of contention.   If battery swap companies pop up people will decide whether to use them or not and the market will decide.   Personally I think they will work for fleets and trucks and perhaps there will be a niche market but  I doubt it will mainstream unless these downsides can be fixed.

 

For me it would not be logical to pay when I can provide almost free electricity.   I don't want innovation to slow down.  Building batteries into cars as structural components brings cost savings and reduces weight.

 

There are of course some upsides to battery swapping.

 

 

[red750]

Worse than parking meters.

 

[octave]

20 minutes ago, red750 said:

Worse than parking meters.

 

 

This might meet with your approval, pop up chargers in London

 

The World’s First Residential ‘Pop Up’ On-Street Electric Vehicle Charging Points

 

On my daily bike ride I often take a short cut past the Shell refinery in Geelong.   It is ugly, noisy and not only does it stink, you can actually taste it.  Every innovation brings good and bad with it. The car brought traffic lights paved roads amongst many other things but did get rid of quite a lot of horse sh1t in the street.

 

[red750]

They are very interesting. I wonder, will cars not charging take the spot when the post is retracted? Will there be queues at public charging points waiting for a vacancy?. What if they run flat while waiting?  

[octave]

36 minutes ago, red750 said:

What if they run flat while waiting?

 

The good thing about an EV is that when you are not moving you are effectively not using power (other than the usual ancillary power usage.)    I found this out when i was driving my sons EV in Wellington.  We were driving back to my sons house from the city and there had been a big accident.  We were stuck in bumper to bumper traffic. All around us cars idling and popping the car into gear or drive to edge forward a few metres.   An EV is probably the best car to have to wait in.   

 

40 minutes ago, red750 said:

I wonder, will cars not charging take the spot when the post is retracted?

 

This could be a problem although I believe that these chargers will be numerous.    Eventually most street parks will have some kind of charging      There is a problem with people, sometimes accidently and sometimes on purpose parking in an EV charging park.   There is even a name for it, it is called ICeing.   

There is also a practice which I think mainly occurs in the US called " rolling coal"

 

Rolling coal is the practice of modifying a diesel engine to emit large amounts of black or grey sooty exhaust fumes—diesel fuel that has not undergone complete combustion. A predominantly North American based phenomenon, rolling coal is sometimes used as a form of anti-environmentalism.^[1] Such modifications may include the intentional removal of the particulate filter.^[2] Practitioners often additionally modify their vehicles by installing smoke switches, large exhausts,^[3] and smoke stacks. Modifications to a vehicle to enable rolling coal may cost from US$200 to US$5,000.^[4][5]

'Rolling coal' protest drivers facing fines, criticism

 

There are plenty of videos of these vehicles overtaking EVs (especially Teslas) and bikes and turning on the smoke.   

 

54 minutes ago, red750 said:

Will there be queues at public charging points waiting for a vacancy?

Probably at times but this is why we need to accelerate the building of infrastructure as we did when we built highways and freeways for cars.   Back in the early days of of the motor car petrol was purchased at the pharmacist  (or in the US the Drugstore).  It was not particularly quick or convenient.  I guess there were many people who thought this internal combustion thing was rubbish Afterall you can put your horse in a paddock and it will refuel itself.

 

The average EV driver mostly charges at home because it is cheaper and easier.   I am not saying there are no issues and I understand that at this point in time EVs may not suit everyone.