Is our 2 party system just a con?

[willedoo]

Yes, I think they are far better off on their own. As a party they could end up being neither here nor there. Some of them of a similar persuasion could be loosely alligned but I doubt a party would work. 

[old man emu]

Isn't a politcal party an alliance of like-minded persons?

[willedoo]

It is, but it's a very tight and strict alliance normally. Stray from the party line and you get the boot is how a lot of them operate.

[facthunter]

Party's develop Policies. If the Independents do that, they are NOT Independent. It's not a Name . it's a description.

[Marty_d]

There's a financial component too I believe. Labor made changes around electoral funding which benefits parties over independents.

One commentator said they could form a party called "the Independents" and allow conscience votes on every issue.

[willedoo]

This article gives a variety of figures from four polls released this week, Redbridge, YouGov, Fox & Hedgehog and Morgan. The Fox & Hedgehog poll found if a Teal-style party ran it would have 6% support coming mostly at Labor's expense and having no effect on the combined Coalition and One Nation figures.

 

https://theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-to-first-on-primary-votes-in-two-new-polls-284165

[Siso]

On 01/06/2026 at 8:52 AM, facthunter said:

Where is THERE exactly?  People can PROMISE anything. 

We have seen that recently with the budget. As if they weren"t thinking about negative gearing before the election. Lying pieces of .....  the only reason ON is getting any teaction is because of the poor performance of the major partys. It is amazing how people get stuck into other people without acually thinking they may be wrong themselves.

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

The major party's bipartisan immigration policy is on the rocks, thanks to One Nation. The Liberals are now calling for a reduction in immigrant numbers, trying to take the wind out of O.N.'s sails. No one trusts the Liberal any longer, they're just about finished. And Labor is in the same boat, floating rudderless in a One Nation sea.

[willedoo]

It's funny hearing some journalists referring to the government's 94 seat majority. That's their number of seats in the house; their majority is 19 seats.

[willedoo]

I'd never heard of David Farley before he ran for One Nation in the Farrer byelection. I read in a news article that he's an ex managing director and CEO of AACo. It was a fair while ago, he served in that role from 2009 to 2013. For those that dont't know the company, Australian Agricultural Company is Australia's biggest cattle and beef producer. been around since 1824.

[onetrack]

Farley seems like a reasonable sort of individual with a realistic outlook, that is less hardline than Paulines approach. I'm surprised he's thrown his hat in with ON.

Perhaps he'll be the sure hand on the tiller of ON and bring some stability to the Party. Or perhaps he won't last long, and there'll be a falling out, and he'll be booted from ON.

[willedoo]

22 hours ago, onetrack said:

Perhaps he'll be the sure hand on the tiller of ON and bring some stability to the Party. Or perhaps he won't last long, and there'll be a falling out, and he'll be booted from ON.

I think it will be one or the other. If they are going to get anywhere they'll need more like him.

[facthunter]

He has already stated HE won't be Bound by Her Policies If the electorate feels differently.  Instability is what PHON faces if the Past is any Indication. Putting together Policies that can be scrutinised. So far she's getting a dead easy Run, and is well ahead of Herself when there's Only One Legitimately elected Person in the Lower house at this stage. Mutiny and Scrutiny threaten. Maybe she can be overturned from within.  I'm prepared to bet NO Labor Person will jump ship.  The Nats and Libs are LOST. Nev

[willedoo]

It's no news to anyone that One Nation has led the last three major voting intention polls taken. But I wonder how many people who have expressed a dislike of our preferential system and support for a first past the post system are starting to have a rethink now that One Nation is polling at number one on primary vote intention.

 

There's arguments for and against both systems. The way I see it, with a first past the post system you could end up with a government elected on a fairly small percentage if we had a few strong parties instead of the traditional two major party dominance. That might be our immediate future, ie: an end to the two party status quo. The preferential system can have a lot more unpredictable outcomes, that's for sure.

 

I was reading some of the views of Dr. Shaun Ratcliff, principal of Accent Research regarding preferences. He was saying based on current polling, what happened in Farrer could replicate around the country at the next election. Here's a quote from him: "In seat after seat, the Coalition is predicted to fall to third place in seats it has traditionally held, either on primary votes or it is pushed to third by Labor on Greens preferences, with Labor then losing to One Nation – usually on Coalition preferences”. That would mean One Nation defeating Labor candidates with the unintentional help of the Greens. This is my interpretation of that if I'm correct - in a four cornered contest between Liberal, Labor, One Nation and Greens, the Greens get knocked out first and Labor gets most of their preferences, pushing the Liberals to third place. It's then a contest between Labor and One Nation, and if One Nation polls well on the primaries, they pick up the Liberal preferences to top Labor.

 

I think either way, it would be Labor with Green preferences against either One nation with Liberal preferences or Liberal with One Nation preferences. Dr. Ratcliff said the effect can magnify a small change in primary vote into a large difference in outcome. He said: “A Coalition primary vote that was just a few points higher would win considerably more seats,”. Round about now, Albo might be checking his wardrobe to see if he's still got those brown cord pants. He'd certainly be hoping for a big turnaround in the next six months or time will be running out to do it. I think the government knows that momentum will be their enemy if they don't stop it, and stop it soon.

[willedoo]

I don't think I'd like to make a prediction on what will happen in almost two years time. People lost a lot of faith in opinion polls when they got it completely wrong in the Shorten lost election. The party faithful at party election HQ were popping the champagne before the polls were closed, and an hour later they looked shell shocked. The thing is, that election was all about the two major parties and now something else entirely is happening. I don't live in a political monoculture as far as friends and people in general that I know. I've got close friends that vote Green and close friends who are paid up One Nation party members, so from one end of the spectrum to the other. But for the last few months it seems like everywhere I go I'm hearing stuff that looks good for One Nation and bad for Labor.

 

The only prediction that I'd be game to make is that the coalition will preference One Nation, which is not good for Labor. In the past, the coalition has preferenced away from One Nation to try to extinct them as conservative competition. It's too late to do that now and if they did they'd just lose more base and wouldn't have enough support in the centre to survive.

[pmccarthy]

Nobody is just shocked anymore, they are always shell shocked. Which is a different thing entirely.