The End is Nigh!

[Marty_d]

34 minutes ago, facthunter said:

The Instinct to survive is PRIMAL. That Bloke wasn't Vlad Putin was he? Nev

No, I've never worked with poo tin.

Which is good because I don't have to be afraid of windows.

[facthunter]

+ stairs and Poisons and Gaols and hospitals. Nev

[nomadpete]

Speaking of which, our mate Poo hasn't been in the news lately. Could his end be nigh?

[onetrack]

We can only hope.

[facthunter]

The stuff that Pops up in front of Me still features him frequently. Nev

[nomadpete]

2 hours ago, facthunter said:

The stuff that Pops up in front of Me still features him frequently. Nev

Aha!

 

So, google is ono ya!

 

This man is clearly a Roosian commonist spy!

[facthunter]

Google doesn't pop up I have to select it.  SKY does but I only gloss over it to see if it's STILL RUBBISH occasionally. If anything it's getting WORSE. Nev

[nomadpete]

8 hours ago, facthunter said:

Google doesn't pop up I have to select it.

Google doesn't need you to select it. They are quietly scraping your every click, or view.

Thats how they can target you with information that entertains your interests. Or target you with echo chamber reinforcement.

[old man emu]

Getting back to the original theme of this thread, we are facing a total collapse of our global civilisation simply due to the imminent collapse of the financial system. At the moment the global financial system is backed by a sort of promisory note called a Derivative.

 

Jerry will correct me if I am misunderstanding what a derivative is used for. Basically money is loaned on a promise to repay it. The lender holds the record of the promise, but can use it to borrow money from a third party. The third party can then use the second party's promise to borrow from a fourth party. The problem arises if the first borrower fails to pay back the original loan. Then the original lender, who has become a borrower, cannot pay back what was borrowed from the third party, who can't pay back the fourth. The arrangement collapses. It has been estimated that currently the amount of money involved in these promises amounts to 600 trillion dollars - more money than actually exists in the global economy.

 

And who thought up this wonderful financial scheme? Pretty sure you would fing the brilliant minds if you walked along Wall Street.

[nomadpete]

I confess to being completely illiterate when it comes to economics.

 

Are you likening the world economy to a pyramid scam - which, like all pyramid scams, is destined to implode after a few get ridicularly wealthy from it?

 

 

 

[pmccarthy]

1893, the year the banks went broke, that’s how it happened.

[nomadpete]

Well, speaking as a minnow in a big school of fish, I do not see any practical way to protect myself from this particular armaggeddon.

 

If only I was a $billionaire....

 

 

 

 

[old man emu]

5 minutes ago, nomadpete said:

Are you likening the world economy to a pyramid scam

More like a Ponzi Scheme. A Ponzi scheme is a type of fraudulent investment scam that uses funds from new investors to pay returns to earlier investors, rather than generating profits from legitimate business activities. The scheme's collapse is inevitable because it relies on a continuous, unsustainable flow of new money, eventually leading to the system running out of funds.

[nomadpete]

Just now, old man emu said:

More like a Ponzi Scheme.

That's how I view the desire for eternal economic growth. 

 

Sort of borrowing from the future, to pay for the past.

 

But again, I see no way to protect myself from a POSSIBLE collapse of the economy.

 

There are many many possible disasters.

 

Therefore, beyond being aware of it, there is no point losing sleep about it.

[old man emu]

This video explains how the big US banks set up a system whereby they were the ones who produced the money that the Government needs for its functions, and how the banks worked it so the Government was forever in debt to the banks, despite the Government always paying the interest on the loans. It also explains what would happen if the Government paid off the national Debt.

 

It is frightening information.

 

 

[facthunter]

You would be better off NOT reading this stuff. It's only produced to SCARE you. Fear & HATE. Nev

[old man emu]

20 minutes ago, facthunter said:

You would be better off NOT reading this stuff. It's only produced to SCARE you. Fear & HATE. Nev

I think that it is OK to consider what is being said. Isn't the purpose of a warning to generate a degree of fear of what might happen, and suggest that preparations be made for a bad situation? If the bad situation does not eventuate, what is the loss?

 

Here's another video by the same creator. It seems basically factual, or at least not radical. It describes the causes of the cyclical nature of boom and bust.  Just take a look at what is happeneing in the Stock Market. Stock values are rising, but where is the productivity one which the value of those stocks should be based? While the Stock Market values are rising, the rest of the economy is suffering from lessening affordability.

 

 

[onetrack]

There are doom and gloom merchants predicting global financial crashes on a constant basis. Fear sells better than cakes at a CWA stall. I can predict there certainly will be another major financial crash sometime in the (relatively) near-future - as has happened throughout world history. The world seems to muddle through somehow, and economic activity resumes at more restrained levels.

 

A couple of things that concern me is the runaway pricing of property, housing and land in general here. It simply can't continue to rise at the rate it has done for the last 20 or so years, and a lot of people will get hurt when there's a "correction" in the market. 

I believe there's too much easy money available to a lot of people, I think lending needs to be restricted to lower the constant demand for property price increases, which feeds on itself.

 

The second thing that concerns me is the price of gold, and the way many nations are buying gold like it's going out of fashion. It would seem to me that our currencies are worth a lot less than people think they are, if the asset prices such as gold and property values are accelerating at unparalleled rates.

[facthunter]

Rising GOLD price equals loss of faith in the Market. Housing is supply and demand and Lack of a low cost Path as an option for People who don't want to spend their entire life buying a Ticky Tacky Gloriousome BOX in a non-descript dehumanising surburb from HELL, where you are not allowed to do anything interesting. Nev

[facthunter]

The Melbourne weather is "So you don't like our weather? Come back in ten Minutes", OR 4 seasons in one day, SW Tassie is worse. When the going gets TOUGH, the tough get going.

  In Qld, it used to be "Beautiful ONE day, Perfect the Next" Hmm. Oh I DO like to live beside the seaside, but I do wish it would stop washing the House away. Nev

[Marty_d]

The problem with the housing market is that it's been taken over by investors.

There needs to be a fundamental shift in how houses are viewed. They should be a home rather than an investment or part of a superannuation portfolio.

I know supply is the big thing but I do think removing capital gains discounts and negative gearing would do a lot to make it less attractive to investors.

[red750]

Thank God we don't have Home Owners Associations like they do in America where some jumped up busy body can come pounding on your door and insisting you repaint your house because they don't like the colour, or slap you with a fine for having more than their  limit on the number of cars you have. In some areas, if you want to purchase a property, you have to apply to the HOA to see if you meet their conditions. Wrong occupation, work hours, religion, etc. and you are not allowed to buy.

[octave]

Is the end nigh? Possibly, the video would suggest that the end of the cycle may be nigh, but like the metaphorical seasons after winter comes spring so hang in there.

 

I did do a bit of reading about Kondratiev.  The consensus seems to be that his "cycle" is more useful as a metaphor rather than a predictor of timing. An article I read suggests that there is a measure of fitting the timing of events into the theory.  I could be wrong but I am thinking that the video did not mention the 1987 stock market crash.

 

The last part of the video is a little more optimistic in that it suggests how you can survive and thrive during a crash.

The theory itself does suggest an inevitability to these cycles. The best an individual can do is be prepared. 

[facthunter]

"Honest" JOHN Howard started the rush to INVEST in Houses. TOO many Pollies have Multiple houses but IF they are rented they still house People. WE have the BIGGEST HOUSES in the world By and Large but many older ones just get Bulldozed to make way for something more Modern looking and ending Up as A big investment when it's all added UP. Perhaps Over capitalised? Even in 1973 a 12 Sq house was good enough. Not today 2.5 times the size and a 3 car garage cemented drive ways a fancy gate and Lavishly furnished with all NEW furniture and Carpets and aircond. Have to keep up with the Jones's and wouldn't be  seen dead where Shirly and Tom Live. Only Peasants live there. .  Nev

[nomadpete]

19 minutes ago, octave said:

The best an individual can do is be prepared. 

Right on!

 

There are so many possible doomsday scenarios, it is impossible to doomproof oneself against all of them.

 

The reason humans didn't go extinct from any of the many previous doomsdays, was resilience & adaptability.