The climate change debate continues.

[octave]

 

[pmccarthy]

The coal consumption in China in 2024 reached 4,947,281,929 metric tonnes, which is 4% more than in 2023, when consumption volume was 4,756,959,903 tonnes. It has been growing in this country for already 8 years in a row. According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) data, since 1980, the annual consumption volume of coal has increased by 8.03 times. The minimum of China was recorded in 1980, with a value of 615,814,652 tonnes. The maximum coal consumption was in 2024, when it reached 4,947,281,929 tonnes.

[octave]

17 minutes ago, pmccarthy said:

The coal consumption in China in 2024 reached

I always fact check everything anyone writes and I hope people will fact check what I post.   Your figures are correct but with some caveats.  In the following, I have omitted the calculations that validate your figres because as I say, they are correct. I am happy to provide links.

 

What is potentially misleading?

The statistics themselves are not wrong, but they can be misleading if they're presented without context.

1. China is much larger than it was in 1980

Since 1980:

• GDP has grown by roughly 50–60× (in current US dollars).
• Industrial output has exploded.
• Electricity demand has increased enormously.
• Hundreds of millions of people have moved into cities.

An eight-fold increase in coal use is partly a reflection of China's enormous economic expansion.

---

2. Coal is growing, but so are renewables

One of the unusual features of China's energy system is that both statements are true:

• China consumes more coal than ever.
• China is also installing renewable energy faster than the rest of the world combined.

In 2024 alone China added approximately:

• 277 GW of solar
• 79 GW of wind

bringing total new wind and solar additions to 356 GW in a single year. Non-fossil sources accounted for 56% of installed generating capacity, although fossil fuels still produced about 63% of electricity generation because coal plants are used more consistently.

---

3. Coal consumption isn't the same as coal-fired electricity

Coal in China is used for:

• electricity generation
• steel production
• cement
• chemicals
• industrial heat

Someone using these figures to argue that "China is building huge numbers of coal power stations" is oversimplifying. The statistics refer to total coal consumption, not just coal burned for electricity.

---

4. Coal's share of China's energy is slowly falling

Even though the absolute amount of coal keeps increasing, coal is gradually making up a smaller share of China's total energy mix because renewables, nuclear, and natural gas are growing even faster.

---

Overall assessment

I'd rate the statement as:

• ✅ The numerical data are accurate (assuming the EIA dataset is the source).
• ✅ The 4% increase is correct.
• ✅ The eight-fold increase since 1980 is correct.
• ⚠️ It omits important context, namely that China is simultaneously undergoing the world's largest expansion of renewable energy while still increasing coal use to meet rapidly growing electricity and industrial demand.

[facthunter]

Just who is doing better with renewables than CHINA ?The BIG news here is HOW the USA has got it wrong,  and  Smart, Knowledgeable people there KNOW it. but Trump doesn't WANT to know it. Nev

[octave]

By the way, China's emissions have flat-lined for the last 21 months and may actually be falling slightly, although it is a bit early to celebrate.  

 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/

[facthunter]

Perhaps we are not in "Normal" Times.. Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

8 hours ago, nomadpete said:

The words "New Grid" are BS.

Yes,I agree,, It was a contextual comment and I was being a little lazy - on a train with a phone and fat fingers.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Our discussion around climate change has centred on power generation and ICE cars v EVs. 

 

But, it is a muilt-pronged approach required. As the rest of the world clears its heat sink, China is building its up: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/trees-in-chinas-great-green-wall-appear-to-grow-faster-than-natural-forests-study-finds

 

Where fossil or nuclear makes sense, it should be used. The reality with today's technology, there are fewer and fewer places it makes sense. And should the political shift to drive a shift to local storage and distribution, the use of rapidly outdating technologies will make even less sense. 

 

We talk about the economics of doing it, but we rarely talk about the economics of not doing it. And economics is man made, anyway... the real cost (ie. outcomes) of not doing will lead to socio-economic costs far beyond the pure economic cost of doing it. 

 

 

[Marty_d]

1 hour ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Our discussion around climate change has centred on power generation and ICE cars v EVs. 

 

But, it is a muilt-pronged approach required. As the rest of the world clears its heat sink, China is building its up: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/trees-in-chinas-great-green-wall-appear-to-grow-faster-than-natural-forests-study-finds

 

Where fossil or nuclear makes sense, it should be used. The reality with today's technology, there are fewer and fewer places it makes sense. And should the political shift to drive a shift to local storage and distribution, the use of rapidly outdating technologies will make even less sense. 

 

We talk about the economics of doing it, but we rarely talk about the economics of not doing it. And economics is man made, anyway... the real cost (ie. outcomes) of not doing will lead to socio-economic costs far beyond the pure economic cost of doing it. 

 

 

That's exactly the point.

Fossil fuel supporters always bring up the cost of transitioning to renewable as a reason not to do it.

Strangely, they never mention the cost of not doing it 

 

[facthunter]

 NEW Coal fired Power stations not only Pollute, they cost too much and are not flexible. Lots of people die Mining coal. My Grandfather was one of them. Black lung cases still occur and dust goes for Kilometres from Open Cut mines. Subsidence from old mines affects a lot of towns in Australia.. Pollution of rivers, like the MacArthur in the NT is of great concern. We NEED mining BUT clean up your game afterwards..Today the concept of BASELINE Power is used to confuse.  Todey, Peak demand often relates to Airconditioner usage in the afternoon in Private residences.  Not Heavy Industry. Nev

[Siso]

Coal can be flexible as it use to be beforr parasitic intermittent generation came on the seen. If you had enough plants they all didnt have to move much to make a large change on the grid

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Siso

[Siso]

On 03/07/2026 at 2:23 PM, octave said:

 

True but it does have to be quite hot:

 

The Temperature Limits

Standard industrial wind turbines are engineered according to international IEC 61400-1 standards, which dictate a normal operational ambient temperature limit of 40°C and an extreme survival limit of 50°C. [1]

When weather conditions push past these thresholds, turbines protect themselves using a two-stage defense mechanism: [1]

• Thermal Derating (Curtailment): When ambient air temperatures rise between 40°C and 45°C, the turbine's control system automatically throttles or "derates" its power output. By reducing electricity generation, the turbine limits the internal heat produced by electrical resistance. [1, 2, 3]
• Automatic Shutdown: If the ambient temperature crosses the critical maximum limit—usually 45°C to 50°C depending on the specific model—the turbine will initiate a full safety shutdown. [1, 2, 3]

 

Why Extreme Heat Causes Issues

Even though turbines use internal liquid or air cooling systems, they ultimately rely on the outside air to dump that heat. [1, 2]

1. Inefficient Heat Exchange: When the surrounding air is extremely hot, the temperature differential between the turbine's internal components (like the gearbox or generator) and the outside environment shrinks. The cooling loops can no longer dissipate heat effectively. [1, 2, 3]
2. Component Protection: The oil in the gearbox can thin out excessively under extreme heat, reducing lubrication and risking catastrophic mechanical friction. Similarly, generator windings can suffer insulation melting or permanent damage if they overheat. [1, 2, 3, 4]
3. Thin Air Dynamics: Hot air is less dense than cold air. Less dense air provides less aerodynamic lift on the blades, requiring the turbine to work harder (generating more internal heat) just to produce the same amount of electricity.

 

Regional Adaptations

To combat this, manufacturers build specialized "hot climate packages." Turbines bound for desert environments like parts of Australia, the Middle East, or the Southwestern United States feature upgraded, heavy-duty cooling fans, larger liquid-to-air heat exchangers, and altered internal insulation to withstand ambient operational temperatures up to 50°C before shutting down.

 

2. Thermal Derating Over Full Shutdowns

When temperatures do spike above 40°C in parts of South Australia, Victoria, or New South Wales, modern wind farms are engineered to dynamically adapt. [1]

• Rather than shutting down completely, turbines usually undergo thermal derating (throttling back total output by 10% to 20%) to keep internal temperatures safe while continuing to supply power to a stressed grid. [1]
• Because the majority of Australia’s wind assets are located in coastal or elevated southern regions (which rarely sustain ambient temperatures above the 45°C–50°C critical cutoff), full thermal shutdowns are exceptional events.

Unless they have changed in the ladt 4 years. Fot the wtg i worked on the older ones use to be a harx stop at 40 degrees, but often use to stop on hot gen coolant or converter temp. The newer ones would start to derare in the 30s and stop at ambient of 40. They wrre dedigned for europesn summers.

Edited 2 hours ago by Siso

[Jerry_Atrick]

6 minutes ago, Siso said:

Cozl ix flexible ad it use to be befor parasitic intermittent generation came on the seen. If you hsd enough plants they all didnt have to move much to macke a large change on the grid

 

 

Have you ever shut down and then started a coal fired power station?

I am sort of bored answering this.. so will let AI do the talking:

 

I don't see any excellents for coal. The one thing that renewables is poor at, ironically can be moderated by the answer to the last thing on the list. 

 

3 minutes ago, Siso said:

Unless they have changed in the ladt 4 years. Fot the wtg i worked on the older ones use to be a harx stop at 40 degrees, but often use to stop on hot gen coolant or converter temp. The newer ones would start to derare in the 30s and stop at ambient of 40. They wrre dedigned for europesn summers.

The key being the older ones, and the design for European conditions (which under current climate change, at least in the southern half of Europe is fast approaching Aussie type weather anyway). The blades and turbines design can be changed to meet Aussie requirements relatively easily; Coal, not so easy to refine the design any more that it is.. You can add scubbers and makle the boilers a bit more efficient, but I doubt they would advance too far from where they are now. 

 

 

 

 

[Siso]

The newer ones still had a hard stop at 40. The derating started earlier. Blades dont make a difference to coolant temp, maybe the fan at the front can be made to blow more air over the radiators😁

[octave]

10 minutes ago, Siso said:

Unless they have changed in the ladt 4 years. Fot the wtg i worked on the older ones use to be a harx stop at 40 degrees, but often use to stop on hot gen coolant or converter temp. The newer ones would start to derare in the 30s and stop at ambient of 40. They wrre dedigned for europesn summers.

I present what I posted with a high level of confidence that it is correct; however, feel free to present verifiable information to the contrary. I would also be happy to post the detailed links supporting what I posted.

 

13 minutes ago, Siso said:

They wrre dedigned for europesn summers.

It would be surprising if wind turbine manufacturers did not design specifically for different environments. You would expect turbines made for offshore use to be differently designed than those for onshore use or in deserts.

[octave]

8 minutes ago, Siso said:

The newer ones still had a hard stop at 40. The derating started earlier. Blades dont make a difference to coolant temp, maybe the fan at the front can be made to blow more air over the radiators😁

Links?

[octave]

Here is a page from the specs of the Vestas V126-3.3MW 50/60Hz

 

 

https://www.rettetdenbuschberg.at/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/10_V126-3.3-Allgemeine-Spezifikation.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

 

Page 27

Certainly, derating does begin at around 30 degrees but at a little over 40 degrees it is only losing a small amount and does not cut out fully until 45 degrees.

  I would suggest that there would not be too many days exceeding 45 degrees in locations where wind farms are generally built.  

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by octave