Consequences of the 2026 fuel crisis

[Jerry_Atrick]

And the rail network is not that bad.. It isn't a European system, though.

 

My point is there's enough public transport, even at the outer to allow a hybrid approach. Car to the nearest decent publoc transport connection and then from there, to where you need to go. 

 

One problem - more for those of us who are older is there is no dunny on the metropolitan trains with longer routes.. 

 

Don't forget, around the state, v/Line max fares are $10.50 each way.. Although buses hsave to be used on some routes. 

Edited Monday at 12:26 PM by Jerry_Atrick

[Siso]

No tolls in SA yet. We also have the o-bahn which is pretty good the few times I have used it. Buses use it to get int the city quickly and then can just drive on normal roads to other destinations. I believe it was expensive to build but been in use for 40 years this year. 

[randomx]

Lucky buggers, tolls everywhere in Melb and Sydneys even worse.

l really like a lot of the way they seem to do things in SA.

[facthunter]

Much smaller town but too hot in summer.  Biggest Solar Uptake rate in  Australia. They are generally a bit more Politically savvy than Most other Places in Australia. Nev

[Siso]

2 hours ago, randomx said:

Lucky buggers, tolls everywhere in Melb and Sydneys even worse.

l really like a lot of the way they seem to do things in SA.

Good in the city, not much happens out in the bush. the Algal bloom wasn't an issue until it hit the metro area.

[Siso]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

Much smaller town but too hot in summer.  Biggest Solar Uptake rate in  Australia. They are generally a bit more Politically savvy than Most other Places in Australia. Nev

And the dearest electricity, always has been but the gaps not getting any smaller because of the "cheapest form of energy" should be comparable to the other states if its so good.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Reality is there is good and bad, or more accuratley, positives and drawbacks wherever one lives and whomever is governing. 

 

The electricitt prices would probably be more expensive is SA as the generation mix is only one part of the equationl, and it is not that different to QLD and NSW. 

 

Yes, renewables have led to short term increases, and this is in part to the privatised ownership (note, the SEC in Vic is rolloing out renewables and it is one of the cheapest states in Aus for electrcity - and the SEC is government owned. 

 

There are other factors that are unique to SA:

• Market structure - lack of competition makes the depp discounts available in other states not really a thing in SA
• Economies of scale - or lack thereof.. Large area and sparse population..  It justs cost more per person to be on the grid. That has to be paid for. 
• Gas sets the prices in SA as it is the backup generator. More storage will fix that in the long term, but you can thak the Howard government for silly gas prices Aussies pay for their own gas compared to what others pay for it.. and every subsequent government for not fixing it. I think this is the unintended consequence of going renewables in SA. 
• Not great interconnection with other states - means SA can't import cheaper electricity at congested/peal times. 
• Still centralised infrastructure - SA has plenty of sun and wind and using a more decentralisded renewable generation strategy probably would have reduced the problems with fluctuation.
• SA is still in the RoI phase of the investment, when prices are typically higher to recoup some of the cost and pay back some of the capital borrowing.

As we know, investments in technology have an initially higher cost than then reduces over time. Some of your costs in SA are what they are unless a) the population grows wildly, b) investments are made to introduce competition, and/or c) there is a move away gtom gas or the gas fired stations are required less (i.e. increase in renewables - or nuclear - or, indeed, coal). The latter two really are not required as there are differing forms of the former, and increased storage will help smooth thhe load. 

 

Of course, you could also state-ise national electricity generation, too, in such a way the people are put before profits. 

 

[randomx]

1 hour ago, Siso said:

And the dearest electricity, always has been but the gaps not getting any smaller because of the "cheapest form of energy" should be comparable to the other states if its so good.

 

But wouldn't everyone be on Roof top solar ? l am in Vic and n a much cooler spot than Adelaide and haven't paid a bill in yrs, never will again . 

Mind you, l built mine myself, no tie in rubbish wouldn't trust them far as l could kickem.

But just heard today actually the govs put out fully paid for solar now well, didn't catch it all but from what l heard. Don't need it or l would've checked t out for sure.

l got a free HW of the vic gov few yrs back, nice score.

 

 

 

 

[randomx]

1 hour ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

es, renewables have led to short term increases, and this is in part to the privatised ownership (note, the SEC in Vic is rolloing out renewables and it is one of the cheapest states in Aus for electrcity - and the SEC is government owned. 

 

 

Yeah last l was paying a bill, about 3yrs ago , mine was bugger all anyway, Vic, and l got my free hw system.

l dunno, back then everyone was moaning about their bills and telling me crazy numbers but mine was nothin.

Mind you l only had one 50yr old window AC that still did a great job and seemed to cost nothing to to run, they prob had Reverse cycles in every room monster washing machines running every 5 mins and every light in the house on , dk. 

Mine was with Origan - think that's how you spell it was with them 8yrs my bill hardly changed in 8yrs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 08:24 AM by randomx

[Siso]

13 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Reality is there is good and bad, or more accuratley, positives and drawbacks wherever one lives and whomever is governing. 

 

The electricitt prices would probably be more expensive is SA as the generation mix is only one part of the equationl, and it is not that different to QLD and NSW. 

 

Yes, renewables have led to short term increases, and this is in part to the privatised ownership (note, the SEC in Vic is rolloing out renewables and it is one of the cheapest states in Aus for electrcity - and the SEC is government owned. 

 

There are other factors that are unique to SA:

• Market structure - lack of competition makes the depp discounts available in other states not really a thing in SA
• Economies of scale - or lack thereof.. Large area and sparse population..  It justs cost more per person to be on the grid. That has to be paid for. 
• Gas sets the prices in SA as it is the backup generator. More storage will fix that in the long term, but you can thak the Howard government for silly gas prices Aussies pay for their own gas compared to what others pay for it.. and every subsequent government for not fixing it. I think this is the unintended consequence of going renewables in SA. 
• Not great interconnection with other states - means SA can't import cheaper electricity at congested/peal times. 
• Still centralised infrastructure - SA has plenty of sun and wind and using a more decentralisded renewable generation strategy probably would have reduced the problems with fluctuation.
• SA is still in the RoI phase of the investment, when prices are typically higher to recoup some of the cost and pay back some of the capital borrowing.

As we know, investments in technology have an initially higher cost than then reduces over time. Some of your costs in SA are what they are unless a) the population grows wildly, b) investments are made to introduce competition, and/or c) there is a move away gtom gas or the gas fired stations are required less (i.e. increase in renewables - or nuclear - or, indeed, coal). The latter two really are not required as there are differing forms of the former, and increased storage will help smooth thhe load. 

 

Of course, you could also state-ise national electricity generation, too, in such a way the people are put before profits. 

 

Why is the gap not closing if intermittents are cheaper. Intermittents are parasitic as they only run intermittently so the gas etc needs to up it price to cover maintenance and profits. batterys also bid in about the same price as some of the gas. as more intermittents are built the price will rise as they all want to make the same money but there is only so many days that have wind and these days everyone will by trying to get production, but the grid can only handle so much so they will be constrained and the price/MW will rise(didn't explain that very well, basically underutilised plant is expensive. Think aeroplanes)) and we will still need gas/batterys when its not windy. The interconnector into SA could nearly handle SA whole grid most days and is about 1/4 of the record demand. Intermittents don't lead to cheaper electricity delivered to the consumer. See Germany and Denmark and they do have large interconnectors although Sweden want to back off because it is raising the price in southern Sweden

[randomx]

They make all that bs wayyyyy over kill in Aus.

All a house needs here is it's own independent roof top solar, that's all mine is. Yeah l could juice it up a touch more for wintery days , sometimes l need a bit more but l only put a very small system on mine. l don't care though people are spoilt rotten babies these days.

lt does you good to think about your power sometimes and balance out your usage if you have to.

They could be running every school most offices, a lot of small industry and businesses and many many other things on roof top solar we've got plenty of sun even through winter mostly.

The way mine works is it'll get me by with 3 or 4 days of solid cloud and if it's sunny of the 4th or 5th day boom- she'll be full power again by 2 or 3 in the arvo.

But it's only gone 3 or 4 days with zero sun once or twice anyway.

 

 

[old man emu]

Well. This thread has drifed away from its original concept. Let's forget about electricity and start looking at things the fuel crisis will cause in teh next month of so.

 

There is talk of rationing. Indonesia has already introduced a 50 litre per day limit.This uncertainty about fuel availability stikes hard. I am about to cancel some work I have been asked to do in Sydney because I am not certain of getting the fuel there to get back home.

 

Farmers are wondering if there will be fuel to put in this year's crop. All the rain in the world is of no use if you can't operate your machinery. Add to that is uncertainty about fertilizer availability.

[Jerry_Atrick]

1 hour ago, Siso said:

Why is the gap not closing if intermittents are cheaper. Intermittents are parasitic as they only run intermittently so the gas etc needs to up it price to cover maintenance and profits. batterys also bid in about the same price as some of the gas. as more intermittents are built the price will rise as they all want to make the same money but there is only so many days that have wind and these days everyone will by trying to get production, but the grid can only handle so much so they will be constrained and the price/MW will rise(didn't explain that very well, basically underutilised plant is expensive. Think aeroplanes)) and we will still need gas/batterys when its not windy. The interconnector into SA could nearly handle SA whole grid most days and is about 1/4 of the record demand. Intermittents don't lead to cheaper electricity delivered to the consumer. See Germany and Denmark and they do have large interconnectors although Sweden want to back off because it is raising the price in southern Sweden

The wholesale price in SA is 30% cheaper in last quarter of 2025 compared to 2024 thanks to renewables. It's theater structural factors that are keeping the price high: https://cleantechnica.com/2026/02/17/electricity-prices-decreased-in-south-australia-because-of-clean-renewables/

 

This is consistent with other reports. And guess what? With fossil, electricity prices are likely to be higher..

 

Oh, and the regulator is getting SA a nominal price reduction: https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/power-prices-to-all-for-millions-in-nsw-qld-and-sa-as-new-default-electricity-offer-revealed/news-story/52dd8a808108d63e36ca6859a6117898

[Siso]

I've said it before, who cares about wholesale except politicians and people that want to mislead the public! What is delivered to the consumer is what matters to most people. SA only has intermittents, renewables include traditional hydro which is a baseload generator if handled corretly. SA has none of this

[facthunter]

Cost of transmission is high in  SA Large area , storm damage. Not a lot of people. Large scale BATTERIES by Musk on the Basis of Not work No Pay for.  Each battery installed Helps everyone. Nev

[red750]

Don't post willy - nilly on any old subject in a dedicated thread. It's easy enough to start another thread.

[onetrack]

The simple consequences of our addiction to fossil fuels is that there is going to be; a major recession, high inflation, high interest rates, increased unemployment, increased poverty levels, and many business bankruptcies.

It happened between 1980 and 1984 as a result of the oil price going ballistic after the Fundamentalists takeover of Iran, and nothing has been learned in the intervening 40 years.

I am already seeing many "gas-guzzler" cars for sale on the streets, and I'm seeing numerous "luxury 4WD" models being transported on dealer plates from the city to the country, where the wealthier farming clientele are obviously picking up trade-in bargains, as city owners downsize or trade in on EV's.

 

Edited 7 hours ago by onetrack

[pmccarthy]

My daughter is looking for a big Yank ute. I told her to wait a couple of months and people will be giving them away.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Unless she goes for one of the big EV ones made in China 😉

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

6 hours ago, Siso said:

I've said it before, who cares about wholesale except politicians and people that want to mislead the public! What is delivered to the consumer is what matters to most people. SA only has intermittents, renewables include traditional hydro which is a baseload generator if handled corretly. SA has none of this

Hmmm.. Let me ssee. there are structural issues with the SA electricity market, and if the wholesale price was more, but on fossil fuels, everything would be cheaper. Is that your argument? OK.. Fine.. I get it. 

 

The use of gas is inermittent as well.. as it is the back up when sun and wind stop - which is pretty much a rarity in SA. Approx 75% on average of SA electricity is renewable generated, but go back to fossil fuels - especially coal, and thanks to recent geopolical events (i.e. wars), you may find yourself paying a hell of a lot more than you are now:

(Spot price of coal - and guess what, there are no local supply guarantees - same as gas). 

 

Yeah - the power stations will have futures contracts to hedge the price - but that only lasts a short while - and they still have to buy futures contractos tor the future - and guess what - the futures prices have been rising 

 

 

But hey, it would all be cheaper under coal.. and other fossil prices..  Here's ICE Newcastle Coal Dec 26 Futues Price:

It dipped slightly yesterday, but those forward hedges are looking more and more expensive. You're locked into higher prices for longer. 

 

But, yeah, it will be cheaper..  

 

I am sure with fossil fuels, SA would be getting free electricity during the afternoon from June 26... 

 

 

But, yeah, let's stay with fossils because it will be cheaper. 

 

Oh.. and more and more people don't even pay bills now because of solar and storage.

 

But yeah.. oh you get it. If you don't by now, enjoy forever higher prices.

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Jerry_Atrick

[Siso]

Where has adding lots of intermittents to a plus GW grid made power cheaper to the consumer?? certainly not SA, Germany, UK or Denmark. SA should be closing the gap between the states if intermittents are cheaper to the consumer. I haven't paid a bill for years either because of my solar and high feed in tarriff and I will probably get a battery soon, but im not trying to run a high energy use business, employing a heap of workers. yes I am a hypocrite, having said that I was in the intermittents industry at the time and thought why may be able to do net 0 and actually still have affordable power to run industry. No such thing as free electricity, just bad grid.  management. Being in the gas peaker industry,  we don't run as often, mostly when we do we only run at maximum price.

Edited 2 hours ago by Siso

[facthunter]

Response to changing Power demand it the Name of the Game today.  Prices for Nuclear and Coal NEW are out there in the Market and build time and costs are high. When you ask for People willing to build such expensive things you Offer a figure which is realistic or you Have to doit with Gov't Money Which Dutton wanted to do and is the Main reason why He is not around as a Politician today. (Thank Dog).  Nev