Middle East conflict

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, onetrack said:

Can't complain about that service! The crankshaft is big and heavy and weighs 47 kgs, and it cost me US$185 in freight cost, just under AU$260. I acquired the crankshaft for less than half the cost that local suppliers charge, including the airfreight cost. The total cost was AU$950.

That's a bargain onetrack. I had a seat sent from Germany a few years ago, about 34kg, and it cost over 400 USD in freight. On top of that was 800 AUD in charges to get it released from the airport. Customs charges, Border Force charge, Quarantine charges, brokerage and many more , it was a full A4 page listing the fees.

[onetrack]

3 hours ago, randomx said:

Shit eh, you gonna put it in yourself or ?

Yep, engine rebuilding is something I can do with a degree of skill, after having done it for over 60 years. Lifting equipment is necessary when you'e working on bigger diesels. This is a 6cyl Perkins.

 

2 hours ago, willedoo said:

That's a bargain onetrack. I had a seat sent from Germany a few years ago, about 34kg, and it cost over 400 USD in freight. On top of that was 800 AUD in charges to get it released from the airport. Customs charges, Border Force charge, Quarantine charges, brokerage and many more , it was a full A4 page listing the fees.

Yep, that's what I reckoned, too. The local suppliers wanted anywhere between AU$2,200 to AU$2,500 for a crank - this one I bought is made in Germany, too.

[facthunter]

I have NO idea how they could make it for that Price. Is it NOS. Nev

[onetrack]

No, not according to my information. New off the shelf. It may have been forged in Turkey and finished off in Germany - or it just might have been fully manufactured in Turkey, and stamped "Made in Germany", or just sold as "German made".

 

I recently did a deal with another major Czechia parts supplier, they supplied new Perkins aftermarket fuel injectors and claimed they were made in Italy.

When they arrived, I realised they were made in China, as there were no markings on them that identified them as "Made in Italy" (as the Italians always do).

 

The injectors only had a part number stamped on them, and that stamping was identical to the Chinese injectors for sale everywhere.

 

So I got back to them and gave them a good serve for misrepresentation and fraud. They apologised profusely, and said it was due to a website error, and they refunded all my money (including the freight charge), so now I get to try out some Chinese injectors for free.

I'm not overly concerned, because injector nozzles are easy enough to change, if they don't provide satisfactory service. But I prefer European, British or American-made products where possible, the Chinese lie through their teeth about the quality and performance of their products, and it is often highly variable.

 

If the crankshaft ends up being Turkish-forged, I can live with that, I think the Turkish products are superior to Chinese-made stuff.

 

Edited 16 hours ago by onetrack

[onetrack]

All the early news reports kept saying "(the KC-135) went down in Western Iran". Now they're all saying, "went down in Western Iraq". I don't think half the news writers ever passed geography tests.

 

The area where the KC-135 crashed is reportedly near-desert type of country. I fail to understand how the Americans couldn't spot a massive plume of burning fuel from their satellites.

It's been over 12 hrs since it went down, and they still haven't found the wreckage. No parachutes, virtually must mean, no survivors.

 

The other KC-135 landed at Ben Gurion airport after circling for an hour to burn up fuel, with a chunk missing from the top of its vertical stabiliser.

 

[Marty_d]

This is looking like amateur hour.

The US have lost 4 aircraft, not to their enemy, but to friendly fire and a midair collision.

 

[rgmwa]

6 hours ago, randomx said:

So what are peoples thoughts on how long this things going for ?

l've had the feeling it'll drag on and get a lot worse buttttt, who knows.

I think this will go on for weeks and months if not longer. Trump has lost control of the war and despite all the destruction in Iran, the regime is now in the driving seat.
The US knows roughly how much enriched uranium Iran has but not where it is, so that’s a big problem. Khamenei had issued two fatwahs in the past stating that having a nuclear weapon was not compatible with their religious beliefs, so it’s a moot point as to whether Iran would ever have developed a bomb. Iran achieved its goal with the threat alone, which was enough to get the West’s attention. Now however, with a new leader all bets are off. They apparently have enough uranium for between 11 and 16 Hiroshima type weapons, although not the long range delivery systems. That doesn’t really matter because they just have to set off one or two underground to prove the point. Trump could likely have got a deal had he continued negotiating instead of going to war. Contrary to their ambitions the US and Israel have not wiped out all Iran’s  drones and rockets, and they can make more. They don’t have to import them.
They have a couple of thousand sea mines and a fleet of fishing boats and midget submarines that can lay them. They have already attacked the neighbouring countries aiming to get them to pressure the Americans to abandon their bases, which may happen as it’s now clear the bases are putting them at risk rather than being a deterrent.
The US and Israel are also at risk of running short of expensive missiles themselves pretty soon too. In the meantime Russia has stepped in to help the Iranians giving Putin a bargaining chip to use on Trump - “We’ll stop helping Iran if you stop helping Ukraine”.
Iran has successfully bottled up the Strait with severe consequences for world energy supplies and other products such as fertiliser. The US and Israeli attacks on infrastructure and historically important sites is turning the population against the US and Trump in particular. Trump and Hegseth have got most of the US population offside as well.

Trump has no off-ramp here and it’s his nature to just make a bad situation worse by never wanting to be seen to be a loser, but he’s already lost this war. All that remains is to go through the process of losing. 

Edited 13 hours ago by rgmwa

[onetrack]

It will end up another Afghanistan, but with the added kick of causing a major worldwide recession. The Americans have yet to defeat any Islamic nation with a sucessful transition to a "democratic government" with free elections.

 

They usually pull out after inflicting enormous damage, with no successful and thorough regime change, just leaving chaos and instability, as the country turns into individual fiefdoms ruled by warlords.

This article below is pretty much spot on with its analysis, as I see it. The only factors that might make the country collapse totally, is a lack of water, and a lack of medical facilities and supplies.

Tehran was nearly out of water before this war activity by the Americans - nothing will improve that situation, and a lack of water stops most human activity.

 

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602268309

[onetrack]

The KC-135 wreckage has apparently now been found, and the U.S. military are stating there were 6 on board (not 5 as previously advised), and 4 have been confirmed as deceased.

There is no word of any survivors, and I expect the reason is simply because the military still haven't found or identified, the remaining 2 crew members. I fully expect they will eventually be reported as deceased, too.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0dz5ql17vo

[rgmwa]

8 minutes ago, onetrack said:

It will end up another Afghanistan, but with the added kick of causing a major worldwide recession. The Americans have yet to defeat any Islamic nation with a sucessful transition to a "democratic government" with free elections.

 

They usually pull out after inflicting enormous damage, with no successful and thorough regime change, just leaving chaos and instability, as the country turns into individual fiefdoms ruled by warlords.

This article below is pretty much spot on with its analysis, as I see it. The only factors that might make the country collapse totally, is a lack of water, and a lack of medical facilities and supplies.

Tehran was nearly out of water before this war activity by the Americans - nothing will improve that situation, and a lack of water stops most human activity.

 

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602268309

Good article. Let’s hope the US and Israel don’t start hitting Iran’s water supplies and hospitals. I don’t think the US would go that far because Trump couldn’t afford the political consequences, but I wouldn’t put it past Israel.

[Jerry_Atrick]

 

[pmccarthy]

This thread feels like an echo chamber. I think attacking Iran is the best good thing Trump has done. In all wars, the outcome cannot be predicted and you just have to act against evil when it's manifestation becomes unbearable.

[Marty_d]

How exactly did Iran's evil become any different than it has been for the last decade?

[old man emu]

The USA has been screwing up Iran since 1953.  The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has repeatedly intervened in the internal affairs of Iran, from the Mosaddegh coup of 1953 to the present day. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Iran

[kgwilson]

I can't think of a single place the US has gone in to to protect their interests where they have been successful. Korea, Panama, Nicaragua, Chile, Vietnam, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan to name a few. The CIA has been involved in overthrows of democratically elected (mostly socialist) governments causing major problems resulting in chaos & confusion with thousands killed when before the US got involved everything was working except those countries shunned the US.

 

Trump managed to pull off the capture of the Venezuelan leader ostensible to get control of their oil under the guise of stopping the drug trade, but the country is still run by the original regime and their military is intact. We have been pulled in to all the American wars due to treaty obligations. If it isn't in Trumps interest would the US come to our aid in a local conflict? Given his rhetoric, threats to pull out of treaties and threats to others I think the answer is a definitive No.

[randomx]

10 hours ago, onetrack said:

It will end up another Afghanistan, but with the added kick of causing a major worldwide recession. The Americans have yet to defeat any Islamic nation with a sucessful transition to a "democratic government" with free elections.

 

 

 

Yeah , exactly what l was thinking.

Matter a fact the Alphagan Leaders words when the yanks went home, rang n my ears when Rump started this.

He said the Americans have all the fancy weapons, but we have time, 100s of yrs if needed.

Same thing again here l'd say.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[red750]

A slight aside. I was looking up Tehran on Google Maps satellite view when I noticed this interesting scene at the airport. Look at the aircraft storage area in the centre of the image.

 

[rgmwa]

3 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

This thread feels like an echo chamber. I think attacking Iran is the best good thing Trump has done. In all wars, the outcome cannot be predicted and you just have to act against evil when it's manifestation becomes unbearable.

Nobody would like to see Iran’s regime destroyed more than the Iranians themselves, but Trump went into this with no idea of what it would take to eliminate the regime and no thought of the consequences if he got it wrong. The outcome was entirely predictable had he taken the time to think it through. His military advisors, the real ones - not that idiot Hegseth, could have told him (probably did) because they have war gamed this scenario for years.