Albo to the rescue

[Siso]

Who mentioned the libs. I expect a lot from politicians and the last 30 years or so they have been below par. Albo is in power at the moment so he is the one that needs to lead by example. We are also told how good the unemployment figures are at the moment. From the ABS- employed persons (aged 15 and over) during the reference week as employed persons (aged 15 and over) during the reference week as those in paid work for at least one hour, unpaid family workers working one hour or more, or individuals temporarily away from their job or business under specific conditions. What a joke and misleading.

[facthunter]

The Reserve Bank want the Unemployment figure to be Higher.The formula is what it is and not decided by LABOR. Nev

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

The Reserve Bank's charter doesn't say that.

[old man emu]

In the current international financial situation, no political party in a small nation such as ours has any control over the country's economy. If the Prime Minister was Taylor or Hanson or whoever is the leader of the Greens, the situation today would be exactly the same. 

[Jerry_Atrick]

8 hours ago, Siso said:

we won't touch negative gearing or CGT.

I actually did touch CGT, and implied in it was the negative gearing (as it is part of a tax package that was disproportionately creating demand in an asset class against all other asset classes considered for investment). I suggest you read my post. I am prepared to stand behind what I say and provide references accordingly when required  (which I am sure other forumites sometimes loathe the extents I will go to). 

 

It equalises treatment of one investment asset class.. and guess what. although the fundamentals would still include investment residential property in a portfolio for stability and growth, people (investors) are going knee jerk. And also, unlike other investment classes, residential property is for people to live in and build some security, The way it was being treated through preferential tax treatment was to artifically inflate the price denying millions of Aussies who aren't as cash rich as others a chance of financial security. A lot of young (and increasingly older) can't rely on the bank of mum and dad. To me, it is a positive step forward and it is not socialist. In fact the regime was in effect wealth socialism - artificially funnelling asset (or redistributing) to the more wealthy and already secure in society using tax incentives to inflate demand. You;re against socialism, but in a perverted way, it is redistributing the wealth - which is what socialism is about.  

 

It took a lot of balls to do the right thing as the backlash was always going to be huge. That to me, is the definition of leadership and one of the reasons why Albo has earned my respect as a leader. I still think he can do a lot better, but compared to the competition and many of his predecessors of both colours, he is not doing bad. 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

8 hours ago, Siso said:

Make shit up like $275 off power bills, we won't touch negative gearing or CGT. Standby what I said, conman. He isn't the only one.

This is where you should do a little more research before cherry picking. Every PM or political party has broken some promises. I touched on CGT already.. The reality is, as Albo said, something had to be done... It was getting worse and worse for the average Australian and that is not a good place to be.

 

But, as I said, every political party/PM breaks promises.. some will definitely be intentional and some will be responding to conditions. 

 

For the record, I think the CGT promise as a lie and they had every intention of overhauling it. And, yes, while I agree with the outcome, he should have been more upfront about it.. Or maybe less upfront and vague about it. 

 

But, for the record, I looked up the number of broken promises between Albo and SFM. I have not validated these, but as a guide:

[Edit] This is the result of an ABC/RMIT Fact Check..

 

In all honestly, there is not too much to draw from these as there is a big number in progress for the current government - some may fail for valid reasons and some may fail for political reasons. But my point is there is 20% of the SFM promises failed. All leaders/political parties lie or break promises. And quite materially by the looks (not calibrating size/importance of the promise). 

 

You can prattle on targetting the side you don't like and think the sun shines out of the posterior of the side you do like.. That is your prerogative. But don't be surprised if others take a different point of view and come back at you. 

 

8 hours ago, old man emu said:

Be very, very careful. That statement could readily be taken as defamatory. It has been published on this site, so the site could be prosecuted, and maybe taken down.

I wouldn't worry too much about it.. If it isn't already a defence to defamation, a half witted lawyer could probably successfully persuade the court that a statement claiming fact is so devoid of truth that no average person could believe it to be true.

 

(That is not legal advice by the way... )

Edited 19 hours ago by Jerry_Atrick

[willedoo]

16 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Fairly close, those numbers. If you take a net figure of promises kept (kept minus broken) it's 26 to 21 in Morrison's favour, so not much in it. I can remember John Howard copping flak on a lot of broken promises in his first budget after defeating the Keating government. The term core or non core promises was invented around then if my memory is correct.

[Brendan]

22 hours ago, Litespeed said:

If you mean people who like facts not lies, your right.

 

Us "lefties" don't respect people who make shit up to try push their opinion.

I have not made anything up.

The information is out there if you look.

You are nasty today. 

Do comments against albo trigger you lightweight, I mean litespeed.

 

 

 

 

Edited 17 hours ago by Brendan

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

Albanese is a global citizen, he was honored as such the other week somewhere overseas. He has little interest in Australia because he thinks more in global terms and he only sees Australia as a landmass to park millions of immigrants from third world countries, to please his global mates and big note himself ... "look at me, I'm helping the poor of the World"

 

Australia takes a back seat with him and the Labor party. Fabian Albanese wishes for a Global Government. To him, Australia is just small fry in a bigger picture. 

[Jerry_Atrick]

All nice fleeting statements, but can you back it up with hard evidence?

[pmccarthy]

It isn’t that he is a liar, that is in the job description. It is the left wing policies in industrial relations, taxation and welfare that are destroying our economy. Worst PM since Whitlam.

[Brendan]

7 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

All nice fleeting statements, but can you back it up with hard evidence?

Why don't you do some research yourself. 

The fact You think albo is a great pm shows you have your head in the sand.

Edited 6 hours ago by Brendan

[Siso]

14 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

It took a lot of balls to do the right thing as the backlash was always going to be huge. That to me, is the definition of leadership and one of the reasons why Albo has earned my respect as a leader. I still think he can do a lot better, but compared to the competition and many of his predecessors of both colours, he is not doing bad. 

Do you really believe they weren't planning to do anything with this before the election. Like I said I expect a lot out of politicians. Sounds like you are just accepting it. The total promises tracked. That sounds like a way of picking and choosing what promises we will look at. Maybe they got Albo to choose the ones they looked at.

 

This would be a good thing

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8n99727lvo

 

14 hours ago, old man emu said:

In the current international financial situation, no political party in a small nation such as ours has any control over the country's economy. If the Prime Minister was Taylor or Hanson or whoever is the leader of the Greens, the situation today would be exactly the same.

Yep you are right, but the government should not be spending money it doesn't have to. The climate talks they just had in the Philippines for example. None of the major polluters rocked up and it ended up by the Pacific Islanders telling us Australia has to do more. Who didn't know that's what they would say!  What a waste of taxpayers money yet we have young people who need to choose between eating, paying rent or paying bills.

13 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

This is where you should do a little more research before cherry picking. Every PM or political party has broken some promises. I touched on CGT already.. The reality is, as Albo said, something had to be done... It was getting worse and worse for the average Australian and that is not a good place to be.

As I said in my post, we haven't had good politicians for 30 odd years. I also said Albo is the current prime minister so at the moment the buck stops with him. I am pretty sick of politicians from all party's blaming the last governments. FFS who cares, I want to know what they are going to do about it in the future.

 

15 hours ago, facthunter said:

The Reserve Bank want the Unemployment figure to be Higher. The formula is what it is and not decided by LABOR. Nev

N0-one said it was made up by labor but they are currently saying how good it is. Misleading. Again it is not just this party but they are the ones currently in power. Remember they were going to be transparent. Looks like they lied about that as well. If ON does alright at the next election, labor and the coalition only have themselves to blame.

[Jerry_Atrick]

1 hour ago, Siso said:

Do you really believe they weren't planning to do anything with this before the election. Like I said I expect a lot out of politicians. Sounds like you are just accepting it. Sounds like you are just accepting it. The total promises tracked. That sounds like a way of picking and choosing what promises we will look at.

 

15 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

For the record, I think the CGT promise as a lie and they had every intention of overhauling it. And, yes, while I agree with the outcome, he should have been more upfront about it.. Or maybe less upfront and vague about it. 

 

Should answer your question.. My comparison with SFM is tp show he ain't worse (nor better) than the next one. Am I accepting it? In so much as there isn't anyone too much better to lead at the moment, IMHO. It's not great for me to admit it, but, as you say because of a lack of quality political leaders, is a sad state of affairs and cutting one's nose off to spite their face seems counterproductive given the benefit the change has already had. 

 

In terms of picking and choosing promises - I am not sure what you're referring to; all I did was regurgitate stats and I did qualify by saying by itself is not a good comparator. It is meant to be illustrative to Brenden mostly that not only Albo lies. 

 

1 hour ago, Siso said:

As I said in my post, we haven't had good politicians for 30 odd years. I also said Albo is the current prime minister so at the moment the buck stops with him. I am pretty sick of politicians from all party's blaming the last governments. FFS who cares, I want to know what they are going to do about it in the future.

 

I have to admit, I don't quite understand this comment.. Who was referring to the last government. Didn't Albo take action to stabilise (and return to normal levels) the housing market.. for now and in the future? What have I missed. Yep, he did like - well I believe he did.. And yes, he is paying for it politically at the moment. He timed it so (for him) the correction was swift and more people could afford homes and by the time the next election came around they would be thanking him in the ballot box resulting in a notching up of the price so those affected by the price correction could see the upside. I have to admit, he is not the master of political timing and trying it when there were geopolitical tensions that were likely to spill over and result in a global fuel price shock was not the smartest thing to do, politically. 

 

2 hours ago, Brendan said:

Why don't you do some research yourself. 

The fact You think albo is a great pm shows you have your head in the sand.

Is that the best you can do. Let me stoop to your level.. if you think the others are better, then your head is firmly wedged in a place where your torso has to form a semi-circle to get your head to. Quite, tightly wedged, too.. 

 

And part of my job is to research economies and economic performance. 

 

So, here is a graph for you.. It's the 10 year Aussie Federal Government Bond Futures Index:

 

What it is saying is that basically, that 10 year bonds issued by the Federal government are likely to increase in price, meaning a lower yield (interest rate). This is the Standard & Poors index, which is an industry benchmark: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/fixed-income/sp-asx-australian-10-year-treasury-bond-futures-index/#overview

 

In other words, a lot of highly qualified people who are much better than your and I put together at assessing current and likely future economic performance are putting bets on Australia as they think the current government and the RBA are doing a pretty good job managing the finances and economy. These are futures contracts rather than the bonds themselves and they represent an agreement to deliver a certain number of 10 year Aussie bonds for the stated price at the maturity of the futures contract. These are exchange traded and there is a very liquid market in 10 year Aussie bond futures. The markets are effectively saying, at the moment, we think the cost of borrowing for Australia will come down. That will be predicated by good economic management; otherwise, the riskier the loan, the more interest you will pay. 

 

The fixed income market (bonds) is the canary in the coal mine of economic performance- it responds much earlier to economic activity than the stock markets. And the futures market is the early warning system of that canary. At the moment, Australia is looking very good, indeed. Sorry to rain on your parade. Ironically, you may want to bet against the Aussie dollar because as the price rises, the yield drops and investors will look for better returns.. However, the RBA always intervenes to ensure Australia remains competitive in the investor market. 

 

What would happen to the curve if any of the others got in? The reality is I don't know. But, as the election gets closer, we should take a look at the curve against who is the favourites and see what it has to show us.

 

Just remember that.. the people who are risking large sums of their money (for many, their livelihoods) are banking on the Australian government and RBA doing a good job managing the economy. Futures are a zero sum game; you bet the wrong way, and you lose it all; they're not like equities where unless the company goes broke, you can extract some value from each share you hold. 

 

And, it's not the only thing we could use to measure performance, but it is a good first cut. 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

2 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

It isn’t that he is a liar, that is in the job description. It is the left wing policies in industrial relations, taxation and welfare that are destroying our economy. Worst PM since Whitlam.

I agree on industrial relations to an extent; The Fair Work Act is a minefield and extends well beyond what would normally be the employer/employee relationship. 

 

The CGT reform was needed; and I get a lot of people are going to be affected as a result. But the distortion in the property market was palpable, and now asset classes are all treated equally. Of course, real estate is not a liquid asset, and he probably could have used transitional arrangements. But that would probably have had worse political ramifications. 

 

Looking at his performance against the G20 for the period he has been in office and it's a mixed bag; Better on growth; kept peak inflation less than his peers, but inflation is stubborn (probably a facet of an importing heavy nation). Unemployment is significantly lower than his peers:

 

Pre COVID, the LNP did slightly better:

 

But, there were some structural challenges Albo has that they didn't:

• The LNP governed through ultra-low interest rates the whole time. This is very good for economic growth. And so did most of the rest of the world, which means the money globally was flowing more freely. By the time Albo got in, the interest rates were already rising globally, and the brakes were on. 
• The LNP enjoyed a global environment of low inflation. When Albo took office, the cost of living crisis had already started.
• The above graph goes until 2019 (so ex COVID). For the whole time the LNP was in, there was a resources boom that contibuted very nicely to the Aussie economy. It is picking up now, but Albo's government didn't quite have that luxury.. and that was a product of mainly Chinese demand and not the Aussie government. 
• There was no geopolitical issues of note during the LNP period, and of course, none off the fuel shocks we are having now. 

 

I want to be clear.. I think there is a lot of room for a lot of improvement. But to call him our worst PM since Whitlam is a bit of a stretch. 

 

[facthunter]

 

Sco- Mo would be the Worst, since Billy McMahon. No-one Mentions either of them in a good Light.  The high Price of Diesel flows on to everything Transport costs, Tourist destinations, Caravan sales. Makers are going broke in large numbers. Fuel prices are also uncertain and MAY go higher. Trump is not helping, and is in fact Most of the cause. WE could NEVER have stayed at a near zero Interest rate and the Previous Reserve bank Governor did great damage by saying the interest rate would NOT change for 4 years. People bought Houses they could not afford to pay off when interest rates went closer to normal, encouraged by John Howard at the time as the Best investment, one could make. Howard  also bought votes, rather than Pay off debt or build Infrastructure.. It's ALL on the record.  Nev

[Brendan]

3 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

 

 

Should answer your question.. My comparison with SFM is tp show he ain't worse (nor better) than the next one. Am I accepting it? In so much as there isn't anyone too much better to lead at the moment, IMHO. It's not great for me to admit it, but, as you say because of a lack of quality political leaders, is a sad state of affairs and cutting one's nose off to spite their face seems counterproductive given the benefit the change has already had. 

 

In terms of picking and choosing promises - I am not sure what you're referring to; all I did was regurgitate stats and I did qualify by saying by itself is not a good comparator. It is meant to be illustrative to Brenden mostly that not only Albo lies. 

 

I have to admit, I don't quite understand this comment.. Who was referring to the last government. Didn't Albo take action to stabilise (and return to normal levels) the housing market.. for now and in the future? What have I missed. Yep, he did like - well I believe he did.. And yes, he is paying for it politically at the moment. He timed it so (for him) the correction was swift and more people could afford homes and by the time the next election came around they would be thanking him in the ballot box resulting in a notching up of the price so those affected by the price correction could see the upside. I have to admit, he is not the master of political timing and trying it when there were geopolitical tensions that were likely to spill over and result in a global fuel price shock was not the smartest thing to do, politically. 

 

Is that the best you can do. Let me stoop to your level.. if you think the others are better, then your head is firmly wedged in a place where your torso has to form a semi-circle to get your head to. Quite, tightly wedged, too.. 

 

And part of my job is to research economies and economic performance. 

 

So, here is a graph for you.. It's the 10 year Aussie Federal Government Bond Futures Index:

 

What it is saying is that basically, that 10 year bonds issued by the Federal government are likely to increase in price, meaning a lower yield (interest rate). This is the Standard & Poors index, which is an industry benchmark: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/fixed-income/sp-asx-australian-10-year-treasury-bond-futures-index/#overview

 

In other words, a lot of highly qualified people who are much better than your and I put together at assessing current and likely future economic performance are putting bets on Australia as they think the current government and the RBA are doing a pretty good job managing the finances and economy. These are futures contracts rather than the bonds themselves and they represent an agreement to deliver a certain number of 10 year Aussie bonds for the stated price at the maturity of the futures contract. These are exchange traded and there is a very liquid market in 10 year Aussie bond futures. The markets are effectively saying, at the moment, we think the cost of borrowing for Australia will come down. That will be predicated by good economic management; otherwise, the riskier the loan, the more interest you will pay. 

 

The fixed income market (bonds) is the canary in the coal mine of economic performance- it responds much earlier to economic activity than the stock markets. And the futures market is the early warning system of that canary. At the moment, Australia is looking very good, indeed. Sorry to rain on your parade. Ironically, you may want to bet against the Aussie dollar because as the price rises, the yield drops and investors will look for better returns.. However, the RBA always intervenes to ensure Australia remains competitive in the investor market. 

 

What would happen to the curve if any of the others got in? The reality is I don't know. But, as the election gets closer, we should take a look at the curve against who is the favourites and see what it has to show us.

 

Just remember that.. the people who are risking large sums of their money (for many, their livelihoods) are banking on the Australian government and RBA doing a good job managing the economy. Futures are a zero sum game; you bet the wrong way, and you lose it all; they're not like equities where unless the company goes broke, you can extract some value from each share you hold. 

 

And, it's not the only thing we could use to measure performance, but it is a good first cut. 

 

 

Definitely got your head in the sand

[Brendan]

2 hours ago, facthunter said:

 

Sco- Mo would be the Worst, since Billy McMahon. No-one Mentions either of them in a good Light.  The high Price of Diesel flows on to everything Transport costs, Tourist destinations, Caravan sales. Makers are going broke in large numbers. Fuel prices are also uncertain and MAY go higher. Trump is not helping, and is in fact Most of the cause. WE could NEVER have stayed at a near zero Interest rate and the Previous Reserve bank Governor did great damage by saying the interest rate would NOT change for 4 years. People bought Houses they could not afford to pay off when interest rates went closer to normal, encouraged by John Howard at the time as the Best investment, one could make. Howard  also bought votes, rather than Pay off debt or build Infrastructure.. It's ALL on the record.  Nev

This is a typical reply

 Always going back to what previous governments have done. We need to worry about what is going on now and find a way to fix it.

Victoria has a chance to get rid of the socialist left party that has sent us down the drain. Let's hope they kicked out.  I don't know if anyone else will do better but they can't do any worse. 

[facthunter]

Wanna Bet?  They are completely divided against each other with the Libs.  Nev