Sanctions against Russia

[onetrack]

The story about the Chinese "Yellow Sea YS20" tyres being a poor copy of the Michelin XZL doesn't really have the ring of truth to me.

Nor does the article help with BS statements saying "Whereas a set of 50 tyres of the Michelin XZL type costs about $36,000 on Alibaba, the entire set of the Chinese equivalent is $208."

 

That whole statement is simply not true. Nowhere would you get a full set of 50 military tyres for $208. You might be able to get them for $208 each, if you place an order for 10,000 tyres.

That's the way the Chinese operate, sales based on huge production numbers. They wouldn't even bother replying to you, if you asked for a sale of just 50 tyres.

 

The Chinese make satisfactory tyres, and have done since the 1990's. One of the reasons for this, is they get their technology and their factory designs/plans from Sumitomo, Bridgestone, Firestone, Goodyear - and Michelin - all the big names in the tyre game.

These big, long-established tyre companies usually offer licencing of tyre construction to the Chinese companies, or they enter into Joint Venture operations with Chinese companies.

Secondly - all the big tyre manufacturing facilities are largely automated. They're not the backyard Pakistani repair shops you see on YouTube. These Chinese operations are professional.

I've been around tyres, including some of the biggest earthmover and trucking tyres, for over 50 years. I've bought and used many a Chinese tyre. Their quality is highly satisfactory.

 

I have friends and business associates with triple road trains, hauling all through W.A., into some of the harshest road conditions you could imagine. These bloke use and swear by Chinese tyres.

I can recall one friend who swore by Double Coin truck tyres in the late 1990's, as he regularly hauled 120 tonnes on triple trailers behind his Macks to the North of W.A.

I've got Long March tyres on my little 5 tonne Isuzu (we used to joke and call them "Long Walk"), they're a copy of the Michelin XZY. I've overloaded those tyres in hot conditions, and they've never failed.

 

The story of the Russian military tyre problem is more nuanced than simply "cheap shxx Chinese tyres". There are plenty of tyre manufacturers who are quite prepared to build cheap copies of Michelin tyres - including Belarusian tyre manufacturers such as Belshina. Belshina quality is much more likely to be highly variable than the Chinese tyres, thanks to poor QC.

 

There's also the possibility that the Russian military equipment has "under-specced" their tyres. In other words, the military vehicles have tyres that are too small, or too light a load rating to carry the loads the vehicle is imposing. If the manufacturer determines an all-up vehicle weight, then specs the tyres accordingly - then the Russian soldiers add a pile of extra weight in additional ammo, other items such as de-bogging equipment, that is not standard - then the tyres will end up overloaded.

 

Then there's the old story of age being the enemy of tyres. Tyres get "ozoned" as they sit around in the sun - they absorb ozone from the atmosphere, and this causes rubber degradation, rubber hardening, and cracking. A 20 year old tyre is a dead loss for reliability, it will blow out as soon as you give it some extended speed and loading.

 

In addition, tyres need to be regularly inflated and driven, to stop flat spots developing, and to keep the rubber components pliable and "mixed" (for want of a better word).

A flat spot results in tyre carcass stress, and the oils and plasticisers added to the rubber during its construction start to decompose, or migrate, or pool in spots in the tyre rubber.

Tyres left half flat, and rarely run, as many military tyres are, have a seriously shortened life, compared to tyres that are being operated every day, and kept properly inflated.

 

Add in age to tyres (nearly all tyre manufacturers will not guarantee their tyres after 6 years from the date of manufacture - and that's why the manufacture date is stamped on every single tyre), and you can understand why the Russians are now having tyre problems simply as a result of aged tyres, poorly maintained tyres, and possibly Belshina brand tyres of very average quality.

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

This is an interesting Twitter thread on the Russian tyre problem:

 

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

Edited June 1, 2022 by willedoo

[onetrack]

Here's another interesting article on the problems faced by Russian artillery - the Ukrainians have had plenty of practice, the Russian stuff (and their ammo) is old - and now the Ukrainians are getting some pretty new Western weaponry which will perform better than anything the Russians can produce.

 

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20220528.aspx

[nomadpete]

13 hours ago, onetrack said:

new Western weaponry which will perform better than anything the Russians can produce.

Except for hypersonic missiles.... Has the west started to catch up with them?

[willedoo]

26 minutes ago, nomadpete said:

Except for hypersonic missiles.... Has the west started to catch up with them?

They're trying to catch up. Still a long way to go. Hopefully within the next five years they'll reach parity.

[nomadpete]

Ukraine will be cleared and ready for redevelopment by it's new owners well before that.

[willedoo]

An excerpt from Major General (ret.) Mick Ryan's assessment a coupe of days ago:

 

' We should steel ourselves for what will probably be a long war in Ukraine. The destruction of towns & cities, the deaths of soldiers in their thousands, the unnecessary slaughter of Ukrainian civilians, and wider economic hardship will continue for some time to come.

 

This will demand a rare strategic patience from NATO, Europe and the United States to continue their support to the courageous Ukrainians. And it is all the more reason that every democracy should be providing as much economic, humanitarian and military assistance as possible to ensure the eventual defeat of Russia. Because as horrific a prospect that a long war may be, a Russian victory that would encourage further aggression and military adventures in the future is much, much worse. '

 

At this stage, it looks like the outcome will depend on Western solidarity and support. If the West blinks, Putler wins. This will probably be the last chance to stare him down.

 

 

[facthunter]

The seeds of never ending hate have once again been sown.. Nev

[willedoo]

2 minutes ago, nomadpete said:

Ukraine will be cleared and ready for redevelopment by it's new owners well before that.

I don't know the truth of the situation, but there were some reports that their stocks of hypersonic weapons are limited and that they use Western tech components, making it harder to manufacture new supplies with sanctions in place.

[kgwilson]

The one area where Russia has always had superiority is Rocketry. This includes from before WW2. German development was rapid during WW2 but the Russian technology has always been at least one step ahead though they did gain a lot of German technology during their march Eastwards in 1944. 

[old man emu]

Ukraine has what Britain had in WWII. Dogged determination not to give in, and massive industrial support from an ally which was out of harm's way.  The only problem for Ukraine is that if they got the rout started, prudence would have them stop at their border. They are too small to go charging into Russia, and I think their leaders are well aware of the folly of trying to tackle the vast distances. Besides, all the Ukrainians want is to push the Russian military out of theirs, and get back to living peacefully. 

[Marty_d]

13 hours ago, old man emu said:

Ukraine has what Britain had in WWII. Dogged determination not to give in, and massive industrial support from an ally which was out of harm's way.  The only problem for Ukraine is that if they got the rout started, prudence would have them stop at their border. They are too small to go charging into Russia, and I think their leaders are well aware of the folly of trying to tackle the vast distances. Besides, all the Ukrainians want is to push the Russian military out of theirs, and get back to living peacefully. 

They've also given a commitment not to use US-provided equipment past the Russian border.  Had to laugh when Sergei Lavrov was whinging about the West "extending the conflict" by providing weapons systems to Ukraine.  If Russia wants to shorten the conflict it's very easy - just f*ck off home!

[old man emu]

He's got a right to whinge. Those damned Ukrainians are extending the conflict to their eastern borders, and that eastern border ain't big enough for two, pardner.

[Yenn]

Putin is still winning. He is demolishing cities, murdering civilians and we in the West are sitting on our hands, doing very little. It is rather like WW1 and WW2, where the Yanks didn't join in at the start but waited until the warring sides had tired so that they could come in and win the war for them.

I can't see the Yanks putting so much high tech gear into Ukraine and then if Ukraine cannot prevail letting the Russians get their hands on it.

Britain in 1939 told Hitler that if he attacked Poland, then they would be at war. Biden told Putin that if he attacked Ukraine then the USA would not send troops. We rely on the USA for our safety if we are attacked, I wonder what would happen?

[old man emu]

4 minutes ago, Yenn said:

We rely on the USA for our safety if we are attacked, I wonder what would happen?

Ask a Ukrainian.

[willedoo]

7 minutes ago, Yenn said:

I can't see the Yanks putting so much high tech gear into Ukraine and then if Ukraine cannot prevail letting the Russians get their hands on it.

On the reverse side, the Ukrainians have captured a couple of electronic warfare systems in working order. They would be worth a look at, but probably not much different from U.S. versions.

[Marty_d]

We have one thing very few other countries have - we don't share a land border with anyone.

 

Makes it very hard for anyone to roll in tanks, artillery, missile launchers and troops when you have a 5,000km supply line with vulnerable ships to get here.

[willedoo]

This is a shot down Russian Orlan-10 UAV, showing a plastic water bottle used as a long range tank:

 

[Marty_d]

That's just some bloke down the model airfield who's crashed his R/C plane!

[onetrack]

Well, you have to give the Russians some credit for improvising! - even if it does show their much-vaunted military is struggling to provide even the basic requirements. I think someone already mentioned the fact that the Russian military is still very much rooted in the Soviet era - "the Govt will provide everything you need!" - except for that time, when you really, really need it.

[willedoo]

I've seen video of them dropping grenades from crowd funded commercial drones. It looks like the grenade is suspended under the drone in a polystyrene cup. Best guess is that the cup fractures on impact, releasing the grenade lever.

[willedoo]

This is a long read, but an interesting assessment of the problems in the Russian force structure, authored by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee. It sounds like there's been some creative accounting with troop numbers, resulting in lots of vehicles and not enough infantry.

 

One point made in the article is that motorised rifle battalions commonly only had enough personnel to operate the vehicles, and very few numbers able to dismount and operate as infantry troops in support. All due to reduced numbers making up units.

 

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

[kgwilson]

9 hours ago, Yenn said:

Putin is still winning. He is demolishing cities, murdering civilians and we in the West are sitting on our hands, doing very little. It is rather like WW1 and WW2, where the Yanks didn't join in at the start but waited until the warring sides had tired so that they could come in and win the war for them.

I can't see the Yanks putting so much high tech gear into Ukraine and then if Ukraine cannot prevail letting the Russians get their hands on it.

Britain in 1939 told Hitler that if he attacked Poland, then they would be at war. Biden told Putin that if he attacked Ukraine then the USA would not send troops. We rely on the USA for our safety if we are attacked, I wonder what would happen?

The US will only do what the US wants to do so no matter who is getting invaded or attacked if it is not in the interests of the US regardless of treaties and alliances it will always please itself. The US is at war with itself and has been for a very long time. There is till a lot of support for the confederates, slavery & republicans are obsessed with the second amendment.

[Jerry_Atrick]

 

 

[spacesailor]

Not so much cost !

  IF the western world comes to help rebuild their homeland. 

If Russia wins it will be left to rot.

spacesailor