Electric car thread

[facthunter]

What's your take on it then?  Nev

[octave]

I would agree that it would be impossible to be 100% renewable tomorrow.   The history of renewables has been that when it was 5% the naysayers would claim that this was the limit and the grid would become unstable.  Every year, the percentage of renewables grows.  I believe it is now almost 40%.   This, of course, is not evenly spread. Tasmania, for example, is 100% renewable (mainly hydro). There are several countries that are at or extremely near 100%, so it is possible. Of course, many of these countries have natural assets that make it easier.

 

The naysayers often have a point, but that point was valid several years ago.  It reminds me of folks who criticise EVs for only having a minuscule range or for taking 8 hours to charge.  These are valid arguments if it were 2005.  The old arguments often don't get updated as technology inevitably improves.

 

In 1990, we built a house and designed and installed a simple solar system.  Our house ran on 12 volts, although later we added an inverter.   It was expensive and a little bit like camping. As the years went by, technology improved and became cheaper.   In our house, now we are connected to the grid; however, we generate about twice what we use.   The next step will be a battery.  This does not mean we could be free of the grid again because there is a seasonal aspect to the power we generate.  This may change as battery tech continues to advance.

 

In this country, there is a huge potential for renewables. Whilst it is not always sunny everywhere, it is usually sunny somewhere and likewise wind.   With modern HVDC and uHDC transmission and improved storage technologies, renewables become more and more viable.  

 

Where we are at the moment, with around 40% being renewables, means the EV you charge off the grid is 40% (on average) free from fossil fuels. I can only see this as a good thing.  Next year, it might be 45% free of fossil fuels.   

 

[onetrack]

The amazing thing to me is the supply of Chinese EV's and the way they keep dropping the prices. I'm not sure how much further the price cuts can go.

 

The mind-numbing part is, China's EV production capability is only running at 50% of what they could actually produce, if they were running at full production capacity!

 

https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/byd-pushes-chinese-electric-car-brands-to-the-brink-of-oblivion latest-round-of-price-cuts

[old man emu]

I think that it is a good idea if the number of different manufacturers was reduced, but with no adverse effect on production. My reason for thinking this is that if there are too many little manufacturers, the customer will run into problems getting parts or servicing. How can a mechanic be efficient if the mechanic has to be trained on a number of different vehicles. I know that now there is digital examination of vehicle faults to say what part needs attention, but the same type of part might be located in different places in differnt vehicles. It's not just a problem for EVs. The same thing can happen with any vehicle where there are many makes of vehicle.

[onetrack]

The word is, within a few short years, there will only be 5 to 7 Chinese EV manufacturers left - out of a current, approximately 100 Chinese EV manufacturers.

 

In 2019, there were 500 Chinese EV manufacturers! The majority of the current 100 EV manufacturers will go bankrupt, but some will be merged with the larger Chinese EV brands.

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:28 PM by onetrack

[Siso]

My take is if we try to go as fast as we are with a transition, power is going to get really expensive. More people are going to make big decisions whether they eat or keep warm at night. Blue scope steel CEO has commented on the power prices in Australia. There goes more jobs for people to make that decision. By all means transition away to a more green grid but for crying out load, do it sustainably. A 1.5% of global emissions, what we do here is going to make no difference, especially with China and India's emissions still rising. You can't blame them as they are developing their economy's like every other first world country has. As we know China are installing a lot of renewables and nuclear and are seriously developing new nuclear. Looks like a heap of solar tripped off first after a transformer blew in spain. https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2025/06/18june-ree-report-spanishblackout/

By the way, I like electric cars a lot and would own one if I was a bit closer to Adelaide. If I was within 80km of the city it would be a no brainer. Just on them as charging stations increase, a lot of work is going to be needed with suppling them. If you have a 10 place 100KW station, That is a MW of demand which means a large cable to feed it and possibly a transformer. I realise the power output of the charger can be dialed down as load increases but are people going to accept that when they thought there car would be charged in half an hour , it is actually going to take 2.

 

[old man emu]

19 minutes ago, Siso said:

If you have a 10 place 100KW station, That is a MW of demand

Therein lies the problem. Just look at the average petrol station. There are usually at least four pumps for a small station, and many more for teh larger ones. Therefore more vehicles can be refueled per hour with liquid fuel than can be recharged with electricity. Does the future of EVs rely on the development of exteremely rapid means of charging?

[octave]

3 minutes ago, old man emu said:

Therein lies the problem. Just look at the average petrol station. There are usually at least four pumps for a small station, and many more for teh larger ones. Therefore more vehicles can be refueled per hour with liquid fuel than can be recharged with electricity. Does the future of EVs rely on the development of exteremely rapid means of charging?

You do have to factor in the different ways people refuel EVs.    My son only uses a public charger when on a road trip, perhaps once or twice a year.   It makes no sense to pay 60 cents a kWh at a public charging station when he can do it at home for 5 cents a kWh.  If we are talking time to refuel, the EV only requires you to put the plug in when you get home from work.

 

 

 

[octave]

Just skimming through a report from Energy Networks Australia suggests that prices went up in 2024due to high gas prices. 

 

"Electricity residential prices (real $2023) are forecast to increase significantly by 2024 due to volatility in international gas prices. » While prices are forecast to stabilise by 2030 there will be slightly higher network prices due to higher input costs. » Prices rise again between 2030 and 2040 associated with firming the system to enable the transition to renewable generation. » Energy sales from electrical vehicles will help reduce network prices by FY2050, helping to bring down energy prices through improved utilisation. However, this will be offset by the need for transmission investment to connect renewable zones."

 

Of course, changing the way we generate and distribute power will have some up-front costs but sticking with the old does not seem to be a viable option.

 

I note that Bluescope is quite active in renewable projects for it's own operations.

 

I disagree with the notion that we are rushing at breakneck speed towards renewables.  In 2013 14.76% of power was from renewables and in 2024 it was a little under 40%

 

Yes Australia does only produce a small amount of the total CO2 however if you added the emissions from all of the countries that produce under 2% it is a meaningful contribution.  Also do we want to be a backwater that relies on old technology?

 

Whilst China is a huge polluter it is also adopting renewables at a fast rate. It is like turning around a super tanker, but it is happening.

 

 

[Siso]

We are rushing, 82% by 2030. We need to remember the first 30% is extremely easy.  Just throw it on the grid, still enough inertia to compensate for it, all the other generators just need to wind back a little to accommodate it. Now we are getting up a bit it is going to get a lot harder, a lot more expensive. We need storage syn cons, transmission. There is a lot more that happens to get electricity to the consumer than you would think. It is a very finely balanced machine with lots of components. Bluescope is also asking for a hand out from the government to help. 

Tasmania is importing 447MW at the moment(https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem), so to say they are 100%renewable is a bit misleading. Same as the ACT saying they are 100% renewable when they get/buy some of that from Hornesdale in SA while being next to all the thermal generation in NSW. SA than goes to say it is 70 something %  renewables, double dipping the same energy. You are right about the other country's. If they all tried to clean up their grids in a steady sustainable way, we all would make quite a contribution, but it doesn't seem to be happening. We are cutting of our noses to spite our faces. Like I said, transition by all means, but do it so the poorer in the community don't suffer. The battery subsidy is a direct tax on the people that can't afford batterys and the way industry is happening we are going to have more people unemployed and those of us that can afford it are going to pay more tax to help them.

[octave]

I agree that it does get more difficult.  We have picked the low-hanging fruit.    On the other side, there is innovation.   The grid used to be a one-way street; however, now the grid is much more complex. I take from the grid and give back to the grid.   Coming innovations, such as vehicle-to-grid, will be important. 

 

Net zero is not just about generating electricity; it also covers carbon removed by natural methods and things such as carbon capture and storage.  I view the net-zero target as aspirational. (I would like to lose 10kg by the end of the year, but 7kg would still be good.)   If renewables truly are going to double the price of electricity or cause regular blackouts, the public will not tolerate it, and it will be modified.

 

Technology continues to advance.  When we built our solar power house in 1990, the most efficient and cost-effective light was quartz halogen bulbs 20w each or 30w (12 volts), where we needed more light.  My present LED lights are super efficient compared to the older technologies.  I remember paying $595 per 60-watt solar panel; now you can get about 400 watts for about $200.

 

My present solar system (grid-connected) did receive subsidies.  Yes, this did come from the taxpayer; however, I am not the sole beneficiary of this.  A good example is during hot weather.  My solar is powering my aircon and some else's. In other words, during times when a lot is asked of the grid, I am contributing to the grid. The same goes for batteries. 

 

I would suggest that if a new coal-powered power station were to be built, it would require substantial subsidies from the taxpayer.

 

 

 

[old man emu]

4 hours ago, octave said:

You do have to factor in the different ways people refuel EVs.

Here is the split between urban and rural. I agree that a city-dweller can recharge overnight at home, and probably would hardly ever need to use a public charging station. However, once one is travelling a long way from home, then one has to use public chargers. Siso has indiocated that for a 10 place 100KW station you need to be able to supply a MW of demand which means a large cable to feed it and possibly a transformer. Grid access in rural areas could not accomodate that load and still keep the local town supplied. Therefore a charging station in a rural location might not be able to support more than four outlets.

[pmccarthy]

The extremely fast charges now being talked about, in 5 minutes, require 1 MW per vehicle. So, a ten-car station would require 10 MW. This is simply impossible. The half hour charge is probably the best we will see.

[octave]

Sure, at the moment, the grid could not support universal EV ownership.    But are you saying that the grid has reached its ultimate capacity?   Once upon a time, travel in remote areas in petrol cars was difficult.  We are comparing a mature petrol distribution system with a developing charging network.  Elsewhere in this forum, people have expressed an opinion that Australia should get back into manufacturing.  We could say we don't have the power or grid to support lots of factories.  This would be short-sighted.   You build the grid you need.   I don't believe there is any scenario where the number of EVs on the road increases massively in a short time.  

 

If you drive around the outskirts of most large cities, you will see vast estates being built.  All of these houses require electricity.  The grid has to grow to meet demand, and it will.  As far as EV adoption goes we are way behind many other countries.  This means the experiment is being done for us. Are other countries' grids with greater EV adoption collapsing?

 

If enough people are driving long distances in the country and the facilities are insufficient, isn't this then a business opportunity?

 

 

 

[octave]

5 minutes ago, pmccarthy said:

So, a ten-car station would require 10 MW. This is simply impossible.

Is it impossible to build a factory that has large power requirements in a country town?

Some countries have a high EV uptake.  Is Norway's grid collapsing?  Are there enormous queues to charge?    Certainly, Norway is not a vast country, although it is quite hilly and cold, which doesn't help.

 

The premise that we don't have enough power rests on the idea that things never change.

 

 

 

[Siso]

It seems the governments all over the world are pushing for universal EV use almost immediately. This is what I am saying. By all means do a transition but we need to do it at a pace that is not going to cause the country to go broke and cause undue hardship for its citizens. There is all this pressure(82% 2030, 100% 2050) which is costing a lot of money and making it hard for people to maintain an acceptable way of life. By the way, there is no way we will be at 82% in less than 5 years.

[octave]

1 minute ago, Siso said:

It seems the governments all over the world are pushing for universal EV use almost immediately

I cant think of any country that is pushing for immediate EV adoption. Most countries have targets for 2030 to 2035, and this only applies to

the sale of new vehicles. 

[octave]

2 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

in 5 minutes, require 1 MW per vehicle. So, a ten-car station would require 10 MW.

How do you arrive at that figure?

 

EV charger efficiency typically ranges from 85% to 95% for Level 2 charging, and slightly lower for DC fast charging. This means that for every 100 kWh drawn from the grid, 85-95 kWh are effectively stored in the vehicle's battery. The efficiency can vary based on the charger type, age, and maintenance. 

 

Elaboration:

• Charging Efficiency:

  This refers to how effectively electricity from the grid is converted into energy stored in the vehicle's battery. 

   
• Level 2 Charging:

  This is the most common type of charging for home and public charging stations. It generally has a high efficiency, typically between 85% and 95%. 

   
• DC Fast Charging:

  While DC fast charging can be quicker, it may have slightly lower efficiency compared to Level 2 charging. 

   
• Energy Loss:

  Energy loss during charging primarily occurs as heat due to the conversion of AC power from the grid to DC power required by the battery. 

   
• Factors Affecting Efficiency:

  Charger type, age, maintenance, and the vehicle's on-board charging system can all affect the overall efficiency. 

   
• Importance of Efficiency:

  Higher efficiency means less energy is wasted during charging, potentially leading to lower electricity bills and reduced environmental impact. 

 

Edited Wednesday at 06:33 AM by octave

[pmccarthy]

Battery size / charging power = charge time

A Tesla has a 100kWh battery

5 minutes is 5/60 hours.

100/x = 5/60

6000/x=5

x=600/5

x=1200 kW = 1.2 MW

But we are not starting from dead empty, so say 1 MW.

[octave]

 Are you saying it takes 1Mwh to put 100Kwh into the battery?

[octave]

Some very large charging stations,

 

Shenzhen 637 chargers. these are not superchargers but yes all these taxis do charge at once (30 40 or 50 Kw)

 

 

Merkingen Germany 250 chargers of various capacities.

 

 

Barstow California 120 superchargers

 

 

[octave]

"Large batteries are increasingly being used to support EV charging stations, providing several benefits like reducing grid strain, enabling faster charging, and enabling grid stability through Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology. These batteries can act as buffers, storing energy during off-peak times and discharging it during peak times, or when there is a high demand for charging, helping to manage the load on the grid". 

 

https://www.power-sonic.com/blog/battery-buffered-ev-charging/

[old man emu]

4 hours ago, octave said:

at the moment, the grid could not support universal EV ownership.    But are you saying that the grid has reached its ultimate capacity?

I think we are talking about two different things when we are talking about providing power to a charging station. What I am thinking about is that, if it was possible to supply 1 MW to each of, say 10 chargr points, then imagine the thickness of the cable that would be needed to deliver the electricity. 

[octave]

1 minute ago, old man emu said:

if it was possible to supply 1 MW to each of, say 10 chargr points, then imagine the thickness of the cable that would be needed to deliver the electricity. 

OME have a look at some of the videos I have posted.

[octave]

11 minutes ago, old man emu said:

I think we are talking about two different things when we are talking about providing power to a charging station. What I am thinking about is that, if it was possible to supply 1 MW to each of, say 10 chargr points, then imagine the thickness of the cable that would be needed to deliver the electricity.

Yeah I get that. I think, though, that it is setting the bar very high. You must be able to refuel in 5 minutes flat.  The long trip I did with my son's Tesla we never charged it to more than 80%.  Each stop coincided with a piss stop or lunch or coffee. Other than lunch I don't think we stopped for more than 10 or 15 minutes.   Sure, there are those for whom this would not be good enough. Some folks want to drive for hours without a stop.

 

I guess the point I am making is that the naysayers construct these edge cases where they need to charge in 5 minutes, but this I would suggest, is rare.  I get that charging 10 Teslas in 5 minutes simultaneously would be a bit of a stretch; however, I doubt that this is going to be how people charge and that it would be price prohibitive. 

 

The video from the charging station at Schengen is interesting.  It takes about an hour to charge for a whole days driving. The taxi driver gets an hour a day to relax. The cost is a fraction of the cost of petrol and the historically polluted air of this city is improving. This sounds like everyone is winning.