Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

A harvester hit a land mine in a paddock yesterday, putting the driver in hospital. It looks like the main wheel just below the cab hit the mine. The height above ground and the floor of the cab would have helped his chances a bit.

 

I don't know what sort of header it is. Most of the modern ones in Ukraine seem to be Claas or JDs; this one might be an older Soviet or Russian built type.

[onetrack]

There have been several Ukrainian farmers killed when their tractors detonated land mines. The Ukrainian Govt says the farmers must not work the fields until the fields have been demined - but the sappers are faced with a massive demining task and are unable to keep up.

 

So the farmers commence work after their own field checks - which are inadequate, as specialist equipment and trained sappers are needed to demine areas that are suspected of being mined.

 

https://www.agupdate.com/agriview/news/regional/mine-kills-ukraine-tractor-driver/article_571223ec-e119-5275-8ef7-2e283a8c824c.html (click through the photos at top of the page)

[willedoo]

I don't know how accurate these numbers are, taken from quotes of sources by the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal. According to them, a Ukrainian battalion commander said since starting American supplied HIMARS strikes, Russian shelling is ten times less. President Zelensky also said Ukrainian fatalities are down from between 100 and 200 a day to 30 a day. Maybe the blowing up of ammo dumps and disruption of logistical support is taking effect.

 

If true, it's proof that supplying the right type of arms and equipment can be a game changer. There's a feeling now that Russia's offensive is on the cusp of stalling, and that they are starting to concentrate on a defensive stance. It's also important to keep pumping drones into Ukraine. Russia seems to be running short of effective drones, and it will be one area where Ukraine could get the edge. The other day, when Putin and Turkey's Erdogan had a meeting with the muftis in Iran, Putin put it to his Turkish mate that they do a deal on Bayraktor TB2 drones. The company manufacturing and selling them have since said no way will they sell them to Russia as they have a long term strategic business partnership with Ukraine. The Bayraktors have been a major asset to Ukraine in the war so far.

 

Hopefully Iran won't supply Russia with drones. They've denied that they are going to, but that's another country that can be trusted as far as you can kick them.

[facthunter]

US continually rubs their noses in the catshit and Trump murdered one of their military chiefs who was popular. Iran is an old civilisation Not Arabic but Moslem and quite well educated. .A bit of respect costs nothing and may go a long way in international relationships.. Not a ME boss, you grovel, always. Nev

[willedoo]

Very clever people, the Iranians. They have developed a lot of domestically produced military equipment, like aircraft, air defence systems and missiles. They have very capable scientists and engineers. Second only to the U.S. in stem cell research as one example.

[willedoo]

The grain export agreement signed by Russia and Ukraine is having a rocky start. A day or two after signing it, the Russians hit the port in Odessa with a missile attack. Now they've launched long range missiles at the port city of Mykolaiv, hitting residential houses and killing the owner of Ukraine's largest grain export company.

[facthunter]

You just gave me an idea for "Putins image" toilet paper.   Nev

[willedoo]

 I can see a vague similarity between the Ukraine/Russian war and the Vietnam war. Some have said that in Vietnam, the Americans had all the firepower but lost the politics of the war. They would have been militarily far superior except that Russia and China were aiding and supplying North Vietnam, and the North Vietnamese fought smarter. Eventually, most world opinion was against the U.S..

 

Fast forward to today and we see Russia as a far more powerful country than Ukraine. The problem for the Russians is that they lost the politics of it before it even started, and Ukraine has also fought smarter and benefited from foreign support and materiel.

 

Just before the war started, one Rand Corporation analyst wrote an assessment of the situation. He argued that it was pointless for the West to supply arms to Ukraine, as Russia is a major superpower and would roll right over the top of Ukraine in no time. I bet he's eating his words now.

[willedoo]

According to the Ukrainians, Russia's Iranian supplied drones have started to appear on the battlefield. Russia has reportedly received almost fifty of them from Iran so far. Things are crook if the world's second biggest arms manufacturer and exporter has to buy drones from Iran. I don't think Russia started the war with a very good inventory of drones.

 

In other news, Russia is still trying to raise volunteer battalions back home as replacements. A lot of the volunteers have no previous military experience. Word is that the volunteer battalions average around 250 personnel, less than one third strength. One analyst said the reason might be that volunteer units need more leadership to function, and with little time to train NCOs, need to be smaller. In my opinion, it's lambs to the slaughter sending barely trained recruits to Ukraine. In a year's time, those that don't come back in a box will be sitting at home with missing limbs and only a stupid 'Z' T shirt to show for it.

 

There's a lot of anticipation waiting for the third phase of the war to get under way. Russia failed badly in the first phase and fared slightly better in the second (Donbass) stage. At present, they seem to have adopted a defensive stance while they regroup and resupply, with only small probing offensives taking place. The Ukrainians say the third phase will be their push to retake land in the south, starting with Kherson. The Russians have been reinforcing that area with troops taken from the Donbass region, so they have to spread themselves thin. Unless something changes, it's hard to see the orks being able to carry out any major offensive actions.

 

A lot of analysts say it will be very difficult for Russia to take much more territory in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian held territory there is well defended. They've created good defensive positions and have been fortifying them since 2014. The front line isn't very far outside the Russian held capitol of Donetsk. Putin's plan seems to be just keep toughing it out and hope their luck will change. Even if he does get to keep some of his goals, the final cost will be enormous and doesn't hope to justify it.

[onetrack]

The Americans failed in Vietnam for one simple reason - and the Russians will fail in the Ukraine for the exact same reason - the failure to carry out that very basic, and very necessary, tenet of war activity - to capture territory, to keep capturing more territory, and to hold all that captured territory.

 

In Vietnam, the Americans believed they could simply carry out suppression of enemy activity, without capturing and holding territory - the "politicians war". 

If you do not capture and hold captured territory, thereby denying the enemy access to and ownership of that territory, the enemy can move back and forth freely, and select territory of their choice to fight on. They can use that territory to provide support for their troops, in the form of taxing the resident population, and obtaining food and supplies from it - as the NVA and Viet Cong did.

 

The very basis of war is to expand by capturing, securing, and utilising enemy territory - and by subjugating almost the entirety of the enemy population. This requires total war and maximum expenditure of manpower and weaponry and armaments - all backed by a whole-hearted logistics effort from the warring countrys civilian population, and manufacturing capabilities.

 

Putin has done none of this. On the basis of being a good strategic military planner, Putin is a complete fool - and I'm staggered that none of the Russian military leadership in the form of a general or three hasn't already toppled him. It shows just how deficient the Russian military leadership actually is.

 

Even quite a number of the Nazi generals realised Hitler was a military planning fool by about late 1943, and started on plans to unseat or kill him. It was just constant pure good luck for Hitler, that wrecked their Fuhrer removal plans, otherwise the Nazi Generals would have stopped the War, and sued for peace by the start of 1944.

 

If you initiate war - to win, you must first have numerous Allies on side, have massive armaments production and replacements prepared, and you must energise and motivate the entire nation to back your plan, and to carry it through. The Allies must also offer whole-hearted support, both in manpower and with armaments production.

Hitler almost succeeded in many of these areas - except he forgot about the Allies part.

He chose Italy as an Ally, and it was a poor choice. He chose Japan as an Ally, but Japan was never going to go to war in Europe, it had plans for its own region, and it too, failed in its military strategy.

When Hitler reached the peak of his military advances, he had no Allies to fall back on, when the war situation took a reversal.

 

But Putin will fail in the Ukraine, because he has not motivated or energised the entire population of Russia to support his Ukraine venture - his efforts at capturing territory are absymal to say the least - his logistic arrangements have failed his military badly - and he has no supporting Allies providing manpower or armaments.

A few drones from Turkey and a few mercenaries from Syria and Chechnya just won't cut it - particularly when Ukraine has garnered substantial support from Allies, and is being given massive armaments replacements and upgrades.

The fearsome Russian Bear is starting to look like he's going to have to go home with his face badly pecked by a pack of Ukrainian nightingales.

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by onetrack

[spacesailor]

BUT

The Vietnam " WAR " , was originally a suspresion of a ' native ' uprising against their French colonists. 

Something to do with NATO at one stage !.

Not to gain any  land .

spacesailor

[onetrack]

Spacey, the Vietnam War was basically a continuation of WW2, when the Communist Viet Minh sought to eject their French overlords. The French failed badly in Vietnam (or French Indo-China, as it was known then), also thanks to poor military strategy.

The French forces set out in early 1954, to defeat the Viet Minh in the NE of North Vietnam, and gathered in a series of small hills, in a big valley surrounded by mountains - a basic military error. "He who holds the high ground, wins".

 

A couple of smarter French officers pointed out to their leadership that if the Viet Minh ascended those mountains and got artillery up there, then the French forces would be in serious trouble.

The French military leaders then made another major military tactical error - they underestimated their enemy.

The French military leaders scoffed at the proposition that some Vietnamese peasants might acquire artillery pieces and climb those mountains. They scoffed that they were too steep to climb, and there was no way they could haul artillery pieces up those mountains.

 

But I've seen the Viet Minh film footage of those guerillas hauling the artillery pieces they acquired from China, up those dreadful slopes - 30° to 40° slopes - and positioning them on top of the mountains, so they could plaster the French forces on the valley and small hills, below.

The Viet Minh even dug tunnels through the mountains, to construct a large number of fortified bunkers - from which bunkers they had an unobstructed view of the French positions.

The Viet Minh also hauled in anti-aircraft guns, so they could deal with French air support. Intelligence is also a major part of any war, and the Viet Minh scouted out the French positions and knew where they all were - while the French had no clue as to where the Viet Minh were.

 

It was called the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, and the Viet Minh won the battle decisively, killing thousands of French troops. Of the 11000 French troops they made POW's out of, only 3000 of them survived Viet Minh imprisonment. The Viet Minh lost a lot more troops than the French, but they had the superior troop numbers to start with, as well. 

The Battle of Dien Bien Phu is still studied today by military people, as a training guide, to show upcoming military leaders how major errors were committed there. 

 

The Viet Minh, and later, in the Vietnam War, the North Vietnamese Army and Viet Cong - were led by one the worlds greatest Generals, Gen Vo Nguyen Giap.

Giap was one of the greatest military strategists the world has ever seen - and he was directly responsible for defeating, not only the French, but the Americans as well.

The Americans underestimated Giaps abilities, unlike most Australian military leaders, who stood in awe of Giaps strategies and leadership abilities.

 

The Americans supported the French in Indo-China, via the CIA, and via logistics support - but it wasn't enough, and the French lacked military leadership to match Giap.

The Battle of Dien Bien Phu only strengthened the Communists hand in Vietnam, and along with weak and totally corrupt South Vietnamese leaders, the stage was set at Dien Bien Phu for the eventual Vietnam War - because America was obsessed with routing "Commies", anywhere they seemed to be gaining ground, in the 1950's and 1960's.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dien_Bien_Phu

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

I read one account of a boy, only 13 or 14yo, who's job was to carry a mortar shell south on the Ho Chi Minh Trail. I can't remember how long the hike was, maybe three or four months. It's hard to beat a force like that.

[facthunter]

People will always fight vigorously to rid "their" Country of oppressors..US is "psycho" about any system with even a wiff of socialism in it.

   . The IRONY of General Motors going bankrupt and saved by government money is lost on them.   Their catch cry of "What's good for  GM is GOOD for America" was conveniently overlooked. Big corporates  RULE the USA and God botherers of the "SUSS" kind. US is the HOME of extreme CULTS too.  Nev

[willedoo]

Another comparison between Ukraine and Vietnam  is the potential for partisan activity as both sides share language and ethnicity. The occupiers never knew who was friend or foe among the civilian population in South Vietnam. The South Vietnamese village policeman by day could be VC by night.

 

It will be the same for Russia if they try long term occupation of areas outside the 2014 boundary. The Russian speakers and Ukrainian speakers are much the same. They look the same, can easily speak either language of which there's not much difference between, and there's no guarantee of support from Russian speaking Ukrainians. A lot of Russian speaking Ukrainians are very loyal to Ukraine, and could easily put up a false front of support for the occupiers, while all the time working against them.

[willedoo]

The ammunition dump at Russia's Saky Airbase in Crimea has blown up in a series of large explosions. At this stage, neither side are saying Ukraine had anything to do with it. Possibly just a big accident, but it would appear that the base's entire weapons stock has gone up. Some video footage from the site showed at least one aircraft destroyed, a Su-24.

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Some more innovation from the Ukrainian forces - a drone rigged to carry a bunch of RKG-3 grenades. It looks like they have been modified by replacing the handle with fins. They are normally a thrown anti-tank grenade, much resembling the German WW2 types with the cannister and handle.

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by willedoo

[facthunter]

Stealth Bomber. Nev

[Marty_d]

I've been wondering for years why armies haven't made more use of R/C planes as weapons.  Even when I was flying R/C about 30 years ago, people were starting to put cameras in planes and fly using a screen under a hood.  Now you can do it from a mobile.  Grenade in a fast agile R/C aircraft and you can target the enemy officers from 2km away.

[willedoo]

9 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

I've been wondering for years why armies haven't made more use of R/C planes as weapons.  Even when I was flying R/C about 30 years ago, people were starting to put cameras in planes and fly using a screen under a hood.  Now you can do it from a mobile.  Grenade in a fast agile R/C aircraft and you can target the enemy officers from 2km away.

Yes, Marty, it's a big thing now. The war in Ukraine doesn't have much precedence in the way it's being fought. It's being used as a classroom by military planners and analysts worldwide. It turned quite a bit of traditional thinking on it's head.

 

There's been some big takeaways, like tanks almost proving to be obsolete. But I think the biggest change is what you refer to. Up until now, the focus has been on larger, expensive military drones, but this war is being fought with one of the major contributions coming from off the shelf drones and R/C aircraft that anyone can buy. I'd expect a lot of world armies to be seriously looking into the subject.

Edited August 10, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Also, I wouldn't think you'd have a lot of trouble rigging off the shelf drones to do a recon and artillery correction role. It's just basic electronics. In the Donbass area where they are fighting, a lot of terrain is open fields bounded by tree lines. Armour, troops and artillery station themselves in those tree lines. The drones would easily fly low and quietly along the tree lines and report back to the operator.

[willedoo]

This is an awful, stupid war. I'd bet that nobody except Putin in the Russian hierarchy would be bothered with Ukraine if the decision was theirs to make. It's the madness of one, backed by sniveling sycophants too weak and comfortable to rock the boat.

 

It's disgusting what they are doing to Ukraine and it's people, but also disgraceful what they are doing to their own. The Russian civilians get off the lightest, as all they have to contend with is a future living in a larger version of North Korea. It's more real for the bulk of the Russian foot soldiers. The Pentagon estimates casualties at around 80,000 to 90,000. Given the usual ratio of one killed for every two wounded, that makes Ukraine's estimates of Russian KIA's look fairly accurate. They've been claiming well over 30,000 Russians killed for some time now.

 

Putin has avoided sending conscripts because of public opposition to it, so has relied on contract soldiers to make up the numbers. In Russia, contract soldiers voluntarily join up and sign a contract, often for 12 months service. Almost all of the contract soldiers come from the poor regional areas. Most are barely educated, impoverished, and need the money for their families. Also, due to a lack of education, they are more gullible and susceptible to believing Putin's BS.

 

Putin and his cronies have no regard for them whatsoever and treat them as disposable commodities. Most are not even getting the honour of their body being sent home for burial. They have sent fleets of mobile crematoriums to Ukraine to dispose of the bodies. These are trucks with a pantech body and a cylindrical gas oven inside. They are made by a company in Saint Petersburg, allegedly for toxic waste disposal. It's very convenient that they are unmarked civilian livery trucks with no military markings.

 

No bodies to send home equals less for the public to take notice of. Another use of the crematoriums is to dispose of Ukrainian bodies, or evaporating as the Russians refer to it as. This gets rid of a lot of evidence of atrocities, and makes the job of war crime investigators that much harder.

 

At what point does Putin realise and admit it's over? His manufacturing and resupply capability is not sustainable to replace losses in armament. On top of that, he's dredging up a motley selection of inexperienced volunteers that will have no hope of replacing the manpower needed for replacements.  Its just madness. Even in his own country, history won't be kind to him.

 

 

[facthunter]

I'd give up on expecting him to behave rationally. Cornered wounded animals don't behave nicely. He's emulating Hitler a lot relying on propaganda and fear and demonising those who dare express opposition. Existence under his authority is not what many see as desirable if you are free to make the choice and don't belong to  the OLD GUARD.  unless he's removed from within it will be the last man left standing or a big symbolic nuclear mistake. No ONE wins WARS these days. I'll kill you and destroy your stuff doesn't win friends.   Nev

[Yenn]

Why the big thing about number killed. Surely it would be better for the number of injured to be 100% of casualties with no killed troops. One of the aims of warfare is to tie up the enemy having to look after their injured. Another aim is to make sure any prisoners of war tie up as large a number of guards as possible.

 

[facthunter]

I think it's about the NUMBER of Russians Killed that won't be returning to family and will be noticed by their absence and not available to fight again.. Nev