The Future

[kgwilson]

Highlights of an interesting talk by the Head of Daimler Benz. A bit mind-blowing to say the least! He predicted an interesting concept of what could lay ahead.

 

In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said its competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon et al.

 

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

 

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

 

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although it does not own any properties.

 

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

 

In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more-or-less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

 

So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future; only specialists will remain.

 

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, four times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

 

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

 

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

 

 

 

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

 

Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

 

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.

 

Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. The car insurance business model will slowly disappear.

 

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.

 

 

 

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning impact.

 

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

 

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

 

 

 

Health innovations: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breathe into it.

 

It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world-class medical analysis, almost for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

 

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

 

Some common spare aircraft parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.

 

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoes at home.

 

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

 

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?" If the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

 

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

 

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

 

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in third-world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

 

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish that produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

 

There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

 

There is an app called "moodies" that can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when the truth is being told.

 

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

 

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.

 

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world-class education.

 

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen within half a year.

 

Are we ready for all this?!?

 

 

[spacesailor]

NO

 

I disagree with most!,

 

City's will still be noisy, Tyres with the weight of battery's are noisy.

 

scientist tried the world language "Esperanto", were is this modern wonder of education?.

 

petrol company's will try Anything to keep their profits, even to dropping the price.

 

Bureaucrats will work the elderly to death, putting up Your retirement age.

 

Smart phones will jump in price according to demand, $1200 now in Australia.

 

Individuals will revert back to "Cottage-Industry" instead of watching robots.

 

The accident rate will fall according to fuel prices making car owner's to use their petrol car less

 

Only the wealthy will run electric vehicles as the price will raise according to demand & their profit margin.

 

Daimler-Benz / Mercedes is the American company AMG

 

And now the old is back again: "1984" Facial reconnaissance camera's through-out SCG area.

 

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I could go on BUT,why

 

spacesailor

 

[old man emu]

The biggest pipe dream in the Head of Daimler Benz's speech was the demise of money-grabbing "professionals" - lawyers and doctors. Those two professions have had a stranglehold on civilizations since the first man ripped off a woman in a sex-for-benefit contract.

 

One hopes that Azimov's Three Laws of Robotics will be built into artificial intelligence.

 

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
    
   
2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
    
   
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.[
    
   

 

The Head of Daimler Benz's comments about Uber and Airbnb are startling, as is his comment that "If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea".

 

The idea of "a 3D scanner and printer in every home" is a bit akin to the post-WWII "a helicopter in every garage", and we know that failed to take off. Although 3D printing is a remarkably simple technique, it is very time consuming to print a large object, and printed objects often lack the material strength required to perform a task. Printing utility items like plates and cups is no problem, but the strength of a 3D printed spanner is dubious. Still, progress marches on and domestic printers might be able to produce a set of Snap-On quality spanners. But then, that destoys all the employment in the production, transport and retailing of Snap-On tools.

 

NSW had just under 400 road fatalities in 2017. In the early 1980's the road toll was around 1300 per annum in NSW. The drop has been produced by:

 

1. Better roads (compare the Hume Highway then and now)

 

2. Much improved passive protection in cars (engineering the car bodies to crumple rather that resist impacts; airbags)

 

3. Improved driver behaviour (RBT has reduced the average Blood Alcohol Concentration of drivers; monetary penalties for traffic offences way out of sync with penalties for other offences like assault, theft etc)

 

There will always be a background level of road fatalities that no automated vehicle will prevent. These are due to the actions of pedestrians who think they are more fleet of foot than they are (the elderly), or are too focused on their communication devices (the young), or are due to unexpected breakdown of the road or vehicle component of road use.

 

If the last quarter of the 20th Century brought a multitude of changes, you ain't seen nuthin' yet!

 

 

[kgwilson]

In NSW the road toll has taken a bit of a leap this year and has been trending up since 2013 despite every effort in technology, education and enforcement.

 

 

[kgwilson]

NOI disagree with most!,

 

City's will still be noisy, Tyres with the weight of battery's are noisy.

 

scientist tried the world language "Esperanto", were is this modern wonder of education?.

 

petrol company's will try Anything to keep their profits, even to dropping the price.

 

Bureaucrats will work the elderly to death, putting up Your retirement age.

 

Smart phones will jump in price according to demand, $1200 now in Australia.

 

Individuals will revert back to "Cottage-Industry" instead of watching robots.

 

The accident rate will fall according to fuel prices making car owner's to use their petrol car less

 

Only the wealthy will run electric vehicles as the price will raise according to demand & their profit margin.

 

Daimler-Benz / Mercedes is the American company AMG

 

And now the old is back again: "1984" Facial reconnaissance camera's through-out SCG area.

 

[ATTACH]2929[/ATTACH]

 

I could go on BUT,why

 

spacesailor

A bit of a pessimistic view in my opinion. Modern lithium batteries don't weigh any more & mostly less than internal combustion engines. Teslas are noticeably quieter than most cars & have immense power as well. English is already the default world language. Esperanto was a pipe dream by a few people. The planet will run out of fossil fuel in the mid 2050s. Electric vehicles are here and every current car manufacturer is on the bandwagon. Those that don't change are doomed. You don't have to pay $1200 for a smartphone. That is only for the tech nutters who must have the latest & greatest. As he said you can already buy one for $10 in Africa & for not much more here. Daimler Benz bought Chrysler when it was a basket case in 1998 & flogged it 9 years later. It quickly reverted the name from DaimlerChrysler AG to Daimler Benz AG with HQ in Stuttgart. It is a multinational with German roots.

 

The comment about bitcoin is a bit tongue in cheek IMO as its current value is due only to speculation but the crypto currency concept could well see the demise of banks in their traditional form. He did say "May even become" so is hedging his bets.

 

 

[octave]

The future, bring it on. You can't stop it anyway. It has always been the case that those who adapt will do ok. I only wish I could be here in 100 or even 1000 years to see what it is like.

 

 

[willedoo]

The future, bring it on. You can't stop it anyway. It has always been the case that those who adapt will do ok. I only wish I could be here in 100 or even 1000 years to see what it is like.

I agree with you there, octave; it would be good to be a fly on the wall in the future.

 

I doubt it will be just like now, except with better gadgets. There are fundamental problems which will totally change what it means to be a human on this planet. In my opinion, these are the major unsustainable things - the current monetary system, the war system, the environmental degradation of the planet and atmosphere, and the population growth.

 

At some stage we will have to develop some sort of utopian society not beholden to corporations, or exterminate billions of people. One way or the other, it's the only way we'll survive. One thing about the OP I agree with; in the not so distant future, there will be massive unemployment.

 

Maybe one good thing about the future is that a moron won't be elected to the most powerful position in the world. A computer programme will govern the world politics as we know it.

 

 

[spacesailor]

Yes you can,

 

WW3. All unemployed go into the Army (cannon fodder), Automated factories churning out weapons of war to keep the rabble armed to the teeth!.

 

See Easy peasy.

 

And the Rich factory owner's get richer from the Government of the day.

 

spacesailor

 

 

[facthunter]

The suicide industry will prosper and the incarceration one as well. Nev

 

 

[spacesailor]

This actually happened in NewYork .

 

Most of the Irish manual laborers were drafted into the army, None of the" MayFlower" set were.

 

spacesailor

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Whoa! There are a few things to consider here:

 

1. Software will disrupt most industries - it is already happening.. Some banks have AI call centres - the phone isn't even answered by a person.

 

2. There has already been many taxi companies that don't own cars. I doubt Silvertop own any of their cars (though admittedly they may own licences and rent them out). Many cab companies worldwide haven't owned cars for years. Nothing new there. Uber's paltform and client facing operating model made them unique in their offering which grabbed a market.

 

3. Air BnB is not the biggest hotel companyin the world - it is the biggest accommodation booking service (and now experience and no doubt airline, car hire, etc in the future) in the world. We have a property through ABnB, because of it's reach and it fits our property profile - but we can concurrently run it through any booking service we like. Again, it is a superior product and incredibly cheap (I pay something like £2 per booking - regardless of length of the booking).

 

4. Real estate will change because of demographics, population shifts, socio-economic factors, etc. People will not automatically flock to he outer suburbs and close-in rural areas any more than they do today. Inner citty areas will increase the amount of high density living as well as provide for those who want to live further out for a more rural (or as they say, better) quality of life. Look at Melbourne, which, apart from cities in the US, has to be one of the most car-dependent capital cities I have been to. High-rises inner city and what used to be expanses of rural property are new housing estates - some of which look pretty attractive as a hybrid rural/urban lifestyle, it has to be said. Many US cities have been like this forever. The major change may be there could be less demand for inner city dwellings, but this will be based more on what is on offer socially in the city - rather than work. I am not sure about Australia, but certainly here, there is already a shift to home working 9my last job required me to work at home 2 days per week). Obviously, this will not work for some occupations... However, yuppies (or whatever they are called today) will be attrated to conurbations offering facilities they seek; bars, clubs, cafes, social lide, etc. When they get older/have kids, unless they are flushed with money (or access to it), they will move out. The challenges of cities will be to make themselves attractive to these people as work will no longer guarantee housding demand.

 

5. AI is little more than very fast processing of statistical and quantitative models against real world data, with the ability to alter the outcomes based on ever increasing population of that data as they continue processing. It will never be more intelligent than humans - just more reliable in their experience. However, the world is at a cusp massive employment displacement and it will be a fact that replacement jobs won't be available at the rate of displacement. Of course, there will be initial human inertia to the change, although, there is a movement which is saying everyone, regardless of employement status, should get a universal basic living wage. (Universal basic income trials being considered in Scotland). As technology progresses and weath /revenue is concentrated in the hands of the shareholders of a few companies, the natural balancing process will eventually reduce this as the mass takeup ofthe population is no longer able to provide the cash it does today. So, taxing the few and distributing the income to the many will eventually prevail, but not without its bumps along the way. There will be mass unemployment, but it will mean people will have more leisure time, and in theory, can use such an income redistribution system to sustain the corporations. Think about it - if there is no money for the masses to provide to these companies, the money thay have will become worthless itself.

 

6. I personally can't wait for autonomous cars - cheap form of private transportation - I can have a good night out and get home without worrying about hailing a taxi. Of course, it will be mine and not a share one.

 

7. Bitcoin (or another cyber-currency) will become the default currency of the world - no doubt. But I think this is a good thing - as it will provide international transparency in a way not seen before.

 

8. If we have more leisure time, we have more thinking time. If we have a universal income (which ensures a resaonale standard of living inclusive of entertainment/leisure) that we can optionally supplement where we can to achieve more leisure (be that a better autonomous car or aeroplane/drone, etc). we will not be a slave to the mortgage and earing a living and will be free-er (?) to vote with our consciences rather than our wallets - which would hopefully, on balance lead to a better world.

 

[edit]9. forgot to mention, throughout history there have been disrupting technology - it's nothing new. How many roof thatchers are there these days (yes, there are a few here); how many horse-drawn carriage makers are there? Candles are now the preserve of aromatics and interior designers rather than lighting. Kodak? HMV? etc. The difference for the future is the services/outcomes will be required; they will be delivered differently. The Harvard Business Schools professor, Theodore Levitt said famously that people don't buy drills - they buy holes in their walls. As soon as someone comes out with a more efficient way of putting holes in walls, the drill will too go the way of the dodo bird. [/edit]

 

The future is not as bad as portrayed - there will be bumps, skirmishes, possibly minor wars - but ultimately the future will be better than what the head of a private company is trying to preserve for his and his shareholders' benefit.

 

 

[spacesailor]

(people) "should get a universal basic living wage". Welcomed by the pensioner.

 

"autonomous cars - cheap form of private transportation". It seems the price of one is much higher than a conventional car.

 

"The future is not as bad as portrayed". Said the coal miner's when the government sent the army in to shoot them!, for being on strike.

 

History makes things Old, New again. But not as bad as when sssht happened so long ago!.

 

spacesailor

 

 

[willedoo]

Jerry, my understanding of the universal basic living wage concept is that it will be just that - a basic living wage that will pay the bills and feed you. The figures I've seen are that it is a little bit better than the dole, but certainly not enough that we can live the life of Reilly and keep the corporations happy by buying lots of stuff.

 

I'm not sure about the not being slave to a mortgage thing. The only way to avoid that with a lot of people on very low incomes is to introduce a Soviet style of public housing. That was a roof over their heads, but a lot were common toilets and showers down the hall and no lifts. It worked for a while in the Soviet Union, but hardly a way for the future.

 

I personally think that, given the number of people on the planet, none of these theories are sustainable unless we lose a few billion people.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

@spacesailor - agree - electric and autonomous cars are expensive now - but like all new tech, as economies of scale kick in, the unit price reduces and as new players enter, the whole thing becomes somewhat commoditised - moreso in the future because people will not see them as a statement of their wealth status or phallic capacity. In addition, maintenance costs will be cheaper and insurance should be cheaper as well with much fewer accidents and claims to handle. Fuel (electricity) will, by the Daimler Benz' exec own admission be cheap as chips (or cheaper) and with less units being in demand anyway, to get people to buy them, the manufacturers will face stuff competition and as a result keep their prices keen. Also, I think there will be bumps on the way - human inertia - especially when government and administraton is concerned, is slower than a disabled snail's crawl.

 

@willedoo - agree - the universal living wage is currently not much more than making sure you can feed, clothe and accommodate yourself with the most basic of utility. However, it is a first step that recognises the dynamics of work and leisure are startintg to fundamentally change, but in an environment where there is still mass employment and therefore, in theory, the univeral wage is not required (as being universal, everyone regardless of their employment status will receive it).

 

As mass employment recedes and is eventually replaced my mass unemployment, the social and economic ills from the mass of society not being able to fulfill itself will require a rethink and re-appropriaton. Also, if there is mass unemployment, the revenue streams that these tech companies rely on will fall unless they pay their robots and their robots spend the money on them.

 

There will have to be a a paradigm shift that will be driven by one of two things; foresight and proactively addressing the issues, or utlimately some form of civil unrest and rebellion until a new balance is struck. There will still need to be an incentive to attain more (for example, one can't say "here is all the money you want to get the fully automated bizjet to take you to the Bahamas"), and things like transport, recreational facilities will move to a more state owned/shared system to ensure optimum use of resources. The culture of specific societies will determine the quality of life such a living wage will need to sustain and whether or not small abodes with share sanitary facilities is acceptable. In the future, unlike the Soviet era, where smart homes self-detect maintenance problems and request parts and dispatch a robot (or person who wants to earn more so they can have their RAAus manchine) to fix it will mean that, in a well run society anyway, the repeat of Soviet styple public housing (which I have seen first hand, albeit not long after the iron curtain came down) can easily be avoided.

 

Also, I didn't mean that we were to live in state housing (though it would be of sorts), but that as we are guaranteed an income enough to enjoy a somewhat comfortable life, we won't be spending so much time in pursuit of the $/£ and have moer time to worry about the things that matter. And when you think about disaffeted youth, for example, rengaging them from the family unit can only have a positive benefit on society (it will take a lot of time to achieve, granted).

 

It's not all rose-coloured, of course; society will probably tend to be more homogenous as we become lemings dependent on being fed by some central authority, but with any luck, individuality will be able to be explored more. And of course, power will be concetrated in a reduced number of people - of I am one on the corporations who is providing a big chunk of tax revenue to support this, I can see the power I will weild.

 

Interesting, and ultimately better times ahead. How much will depend on how involved we get in shaping it.

 

 

[willedoo]

Jerry, I think you are fairly close to the ball on a lot of it. I guess it will depend on the intelligence and good planning of our future leaders (don't laugh). Politics as we know it will have to drastically change to bring about a lot of this. Democracy as we know it today may not exist in 100 years time. We may eventually be better off being governed by AI and one big computer programme.

 

The future will be one where possibly no more than 20% of the world's population will have employment. For a living wage to work, costs to the ordinary punter must come down- ie: the milking cow is no more. Government will have to reduce regulation and fees to the people and corporations weakened in their ability to fleece people. As consumer demand drops, this will probably balance out, as the corporations will have to drop prices. Their manufacturing costs will be much lower, so they will probably still do ok.

 

One problem is the cities. City people still need a high degree of regulation compared to those living in the country. What I mean is building codes, sanitation, sewerage etc., which for health and safety reasons is more important when you have millions of people living on top of each other. Under today's system, people have to pay through the nose to be regulated to that degree. But in the future, they won't have the money to pay, so authorities will have to provide free services. Those of us living in the country will probably be left alone to live in our mud huts if that's what we choose.

 

With the living wage, I like the idea of it being universal to all, paupers and millionaires alike. One blanket rule would prevent governments continually tweaking it to screw people, similar to how they're eroding our pension rights here in Australia. It would balance out due to the high tax paid by the more wealthy recipients.

 

 

[spacesailor]

YOU are Joking.

 

"One blanket rule would prevent governments continually tweaking it to screw people, similar to how they're eroding our pension rights here in Australia. It would balance out due to the high tax paid by the more wealthy recipients."

 

What tax do they pay, EVER.

 

spacesailor

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

@spacesailor - you are absolutely right - today the wealthy don't pay tax (or at most very little in relative terms). However, in a new world of mass unemployment thanks to technology being able to do the work, there will have to be a fundamental shift of the current paradigm as there will be nothing to tax from the masses. It may drive, dare I say it, a global homogeneity as different nations will have to unite to ensure there is no benefit in the wealthy domiciling themselves in one place or another and given time, this may result in some form of global economic supra-state similar to what the EU is today (but hopefully more transparent and democratic in its operation). In theory - this would eventually lead to world peace as economically at least, there is nothing to fight for. Any nutcase faction that started up e.g. an ISIS type group) would have to be dealt with quickly to preserve world order.There will be lots of bumps and blood-shed on the way to this utopia and it will take a long time to evolve, but an equilibrium would finally have to be found.

 

 

[willedoo]

Ok, maybe wealthy was the wrong choice of words. What I meant was higher income earners, and don't fool yourself - they do pay tax.

 

The point I was getting at, is that if there was one ruling, the government of the day couldn't play around with it, like continually revising downwards the income level where it kicks in. For example, let's say the living wage was only paid to those under $100,000 income. To balance the next budget, that might change to 80, then 70, 60, 50 etc.etc.. If the law was to pay it to all regardless of income, it negates that option of dishonest government. It would be interesting to see the final balance. For example, a wealthier person might pull in many thousands of dollars per week and still get their $350 living wage.

 

Most of them don't hoard their money, so would the amount they offload into the economy be more than what they receive in the living wage?

 

I just don't think it would work if it was restricted to certain income groups because of the history of stupidity and greed in governments. They'd f**k with it for sure.

 

 

[facthunter]

Kerry Packer said tax for the rich is optional. He would have been in a position to have some knowledge about that. Was done at a Senate Enguiry which his contempt for, (and his questioners) was plainly obvious. Nev

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yeah - but he has been gone a fe years now and governments are coordinting to close low/no tax regimes (er, countries) to domicile oneself in.

 

 

[facthunter]

Long way to go yet Jerry. Nev

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Defo - but necessity is the mother of all invention (or in the case of government, interventon)...

 

At the moment, the taxes of the middle and lower classes will suffice, but when that dries up with mass unemployment, what is left?

 

 

[facthunter]

Invent more debt and collect it or print more money. Nev

 

 

[nomadpete]

Hey Jerry, not trying to criticize but you do seem to have a somewhat bleak view of our future.

 

Your comments about automation and computerisation taking jobs, and the resulting 40hour leisure week, have been promised since I was a wide eyed apprentice (back before Noah made landfall)

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

@nomadpete - I recall having a chat with a fireman who was a member of some socialist party some 30 years ago shoving some half-produced newsletter in my hand claiming something that for each job computing provided (I was a young-ish computer operator at the time working evening shifts) a certain number of other jobs were to be lost. I can't recall the precise ratio, but pointed out on those figuresm the total number employed by our IT (or as it was known then. EDP) department would have meant the rest of Melbourne's adult workforce would be unemployed. It shut him up for a bit...

 

However, whereas computers in the past were used to make human roles more efficient, the roles they displaced were more readily picked up in other areas - this may have been in the tech sector itself (they now have a plethoroa od dev specilaists rather than more generic as in our day - software seems far more expensive to develop than it ever has been despite progress) or new cottage industries were established - mainly services for convenience (dog walkers/day care, car washes, etc - that were often the preserve of the scouts of kids). Jeez, even shoe-shiners are about now.

 

The difference this time is AI + cognitive computing/nueral networks (been around for a while but now being commercialised) + Robotics + massive parallel computing becoming comoditised + quantum computing + minaturisation + big data equal the ability for machines to perform most of the operational jobs people do, self-identify faults and arrange repairs, actually perform the repairs and use ever expandign data bank to actually design improvements for their next generation of machines. We are alerady seeing call centres being replaced by AI (just look at how good SIRI is - my son gets hours of entertainment trying to fool it, offend it and obscure it, and it is for the great majority of the time, able to provide rational, contextual and intelligent answers to him - even with humour - on a peice of kit the size of a wallet - and without it having to be trained for voice nor accent. Think back a few years, and trying to get speech recognition software working on your IBM PC clone was a PITA and unreliable.

 

People are being replaced in call centres by current technology; There are driverless trains already operating in Australia and many other countries. The autonomous car and truck/lorry is around the corner. Pilotless sky taxis (drones) are shortly to be trialed in Dubai and there is a lot of interest in other countries. Pilotless planes are probably being conceived. Medical diagnisis already takes place using AI (have you seen the diagnosis apps out) and robotic surgery is not too far off (where they can react to changes in the vital signs far faster than humans). Fintech is the latest rage here at the moment and there are deployments of AI based financial advice which are showing conssitently better returns than their human counterpart. When I worked for the internet banking team of an Aussie bank in 2003, we already had the tech to close up virtually all the branches and do everything online - politics currently makes sure that won't happen. However, if you think of financial trading, all but the most exotic products are traded mostly electronically via algorithmic trading - which is AI. Traders are far fewer than they used to be (some may say that is a good thing) and now the operational, legal, risk management, finance and other support teams are being displaced. Also, I read the other day that robotics is to be used in the battlefield to replace humans - I guess once you're army of robots are done, the default position is surrender.

 

The main barrier to widespread adoption of automation to replace humans is the AI/Cognitive Computing development, raw processing power, accuracy/sensitivity of sensory devices and data storage capacity. Over recent years, the advancves in these areas has been expoential and as massive parallel systems become commoditised and quantum computing matures, the advances will be explosive. It won't all happen in our work-life time; maybe not in our lifetime - but it will happen. People will stil be required - there will be the situation in whatever activity it ism be it flying an aircraft, operting on someone or answering a query on their finances that the systems won't have the parameters set for and therefore require human intervention - there will be a erquirement for a lot fewer people to do this, though. And as time goes by and parameters are extended, the reliance on humans will further decrease.

 

It's not neessarily bleak, though. It will mean a rebalance between leisure and work which can be a good thing anyway. I am currently redundant (looking for new work) and am thoroughly enjoying spendign much more quality time with my family. They are, for the most part, enjoying it, too. I also enjoy pontificating or philosophising on these forums; I get a lot out of it in terms of better understanding out of various topics as well as people and I hope I contribute to that, too. (Hey, here's a thought - you all may be articficial intellgence nodes and I am the only human on here.. or I may be that AI node??). I also get a lot more physical exercise as well as sprucing up the property which increases the aesthetics of the neighbourhood and increases the feel good factor fo the ciommunity, etc.

 

It may also mean, humans being ultimately innovative, will dream up new things to provide that at the time aren't in the automation fold and develop society in a way hitherto unforeseen. It can all go 'orribly wrong, though though maladministration and corruption and we coul all end up living under some Polpot regime. Still, I would lvoe to be around in 50 or so years.