Middle East conflict

[rgmwa]

Yes the US has been in the Middle East for decades ‘helping’ the Arabs extract their oil and gas reserves. I’m sure they would like to get their hands on the Iranian oil too but the regime there doesn’t want their help, Iran is a disruptor in the region, and a threat to Israel and US interests, especially if they get nuclear weapons. I don’t think the oil is a reason for this war starting. It is about the threat to Israel generally with or without nuclear weapons but especially with them. That’s Trump’s stated aim for getting involved but he’ll grab anything else he can get.

[nomadpete]

8 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

The way I see it is that he wants to be able to control the oil from Iran in the same way as Venzuela.. and control the supply to China..

Do you think that poking a tiger ever works out well?

[nomadpete]

7 hours ago, old man emu said:

Theodre Roosevelt once said, "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Trump's versoion is, "Yell loudly and thump with your big strick".

Perhaps donold's spineless yess men didn't tell him that China now has a pretty big stick too.

[Jerry_Atrick]

6 hours ago, rgmwa said:

Yes the US has been in the Middle East for decades ‘helping’ the Arabs extract their oil and gas reserves. I’m sure they would like to get their hands on the Iranian oil too but the regime there doesn’t want their help, Iran is a disruptor in the region, and a threat to Israel and US interests, especially if they get nuclear weapons. I don’t think the oil is a reason for this war starting. It is about the threat to Israel generally with or without nuclear weapons but especially with them. That’s Trump’s stated aim for getting involved but he’ll grab anything else he can get.

I don't disagree with this. Of course Iran is a threat to Israeli interests (i.e. survival) and US Interests. But what are US interests? Israel? Only to the extent Israel supports the US and contributes technology to US military. What other interest does the US have of the Middle East? Is it protecting it out of the goodness of its heart; or because of the extraction of oil from the Arab states there? As well as the profits that flow from services supporting their construction and oil industries. 

 

So, if the US is protecting its interests, it is really protecting oil, right? But what other interests does the US have? Well, it has an interest on containing China's industrial might, because, as we saw in WWII, indistrial might helps win world wars. It can't stop China getting hold of solar panels and rare earth minerals unless it invades China, which I think even Chumpo would work out isn't a great idea. 

 

Also, I would suspect there owuld be one or two other gulf states that would also be happy if the Iranian regime toppled. Who is to say they didn't lend their voices to this?

 

 

1 hour ago, nomadpete said:

Do you think that poking a tiger ever works out well?

I din't say it was a good idea. Let's face it; Chump's belligerent ideas are rarely any good. I was just proferring up a theory that isn't mainstream - but one that I thought may have some weight even at the beginning of this conflict - although I hadn't really thought about the China angle. 

 

But, I can think of one case where poking the bear good and proper would likely have solved at least one conflict. 

[nomadpete]

And I was pointing out that China is protecting it's own interests too. And to be expected. Donold seems to be pushing China to see how far he can damage their economy (energy wise) before they push back.

The Chinese comment is an example of diplomatically warning trump. A deliberate contrast to trump's rants.

 

It is unlikely that trump has a grand plan to secure control over the global oil supply chain.

 

But it is possibe he got up one morning wondering how to get the most attention in the world. 

 

That's working. Everyone is talking about him.

 

 

 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by nomadpete

[nomadpete]

I don't think trump gives a flying fark about the damage he does to Japan, Australia, Malaysia, etc. Nor about the wellbeing of American citizens.

 

 

 

[rgmwa]

The US is in the Middle East because of the oil. The US supports Israel because of the influential Jewish lobby in America. There is no doubt Israel is threatened by its neighbours in the region and needs to protect itself, and it does this very effectively by preventative maintenance - striking first. America’s support and weapons are crucial in this although they also have a large defence industry themselves. America’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil has reduced almost entirely in recent years because they have figured out how to extract their shale oil and rob Venezuela. They are still interested in the Gulf oil because it’s essential to their global competitors which includes their allies. 

[facthunter]

Trump treats competition as the enemy and He's Not smart or educated or likely to Listen to anyone's advice. He's also vindictive and a chronic LIAR who cares not for former Allies and a lot More negatives. Nev

[kgwilson]

Well he didn't impress the Hungarians neither did Just Dumb Vance. The UK & the EU have a collectively larger economy by some margin than the US & Trump has alienated the rest of Nato and pretty much everyone else. The only thing the US has is a bigger military with the biggest most sophisticated weapons and some excellent technology though no better than Europe, China or even Australia. The problem is the country is run by the billionaires with Trump as their figurehead.

 

The US has never been invaded but they are always at war with someone as well as themselves. They haven't invented many things on their own but have exploited most of the inventions from elsewhere, mostly the UK & Europe. The UK & Europe have some very large armament companies but have been happy to play second fiddle while the US has provided most of the defence hardware.

 

Not any more. The invasion of Ukraine and Trumps re election has changed everything, The US is an empire in decline, it is already technically bankrupt and Trump is costing the county dearly. I don't know when it will eventually implode but I am sure it will eventually. There are companies that have been deemed to big to fail like GM but there is nothing that will save a country when it all turns to custard/

[red750]

I didn't realise Kharg Island (red pin) was almost 850 km from the Strait of Hormuz.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

8 hours ago, rgmwa said:

The US is in the Middle East because of the oil.

 

8 hours ago, rgmwa said:

They are still interested in the Gulf oil because it’s essential to their global competitors which includes their allies. 

Isn't that the basis of my post about the intention?

 

8 hours ago, rgmwa said:

The US supports Israel because of the influential Jewish lobby in America

I have no doubt about this. 

 

But that doen't, IMHO, change the fact that oil is the primary interest of the US, and Israel in this case is a smokescreen. 

 

I am not suggesting Chump is even driving it.. he may well be a puppet. 

2 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The US is an empire in decline, it is already technically bankrupt and Trump is costing the county dearly. I don't know when it will eventually implode but I am sure it will eventually.

The empire is in decline alright; the fall of Rome comes to mind. They won't go bankrupt for some time; and it is doubtful they ever will. The UK would have defaulted on its debt in 1976 but got an IMF or similar loan to keep it afloat. This was because of a sharp drop in teh £, but that was caused because of a banana republic type economy at the time. I think it is fair to say the UK never really recoverd and the EU gave it a bit of a lifeline. 

 

The US is likely to go the same way. 

 

From a credit risk perspective, a country can never go broke. It can continue to print its way out of problems, which will compound its internal economic woes; if they have debt denoted in a foreign currency they ahve to print more and accept hyperflation; if it is in their currency, their creditors get less. 

 

In credit risk, we treat each sovereign country as a going concern. We attache a CLR - Country Legal Rating; this means that we determine a ranking of how much they conform to the law. The US (even under Chump), the UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, most of western Europe and some of the central/eastern European countries all rank 1 (highest). Whilst their credit ratings will move, they are generally considered almost risk free (techncally the US is risk free, but that may change) in the sense that even if they default in their payments, you do eventually get it back with the back interest paid; it costs you to fnd the difference of the duration, though.

 

[rgmwa]

39 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Isn't that the basis of my post about the intention? 

Yes, and I agree with you. 

[red750]

Vance should be known as Kiss of Death Vance.

 

This week, JD Vance had two jobs: get an Iran deal and keep Hungary's Viktor Orban in power. Neither happened for the US vice president. Then there was his visit with Pope Francis, who died a few days later. 

 

And he's the default President if Chump carks it?