Middle East conflict

[kgwilson]

Alan Kholer provides a good summary of the influence of religion in politics in this article below.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-09/oil-markets-qatar-gulf-iran-religion-litics-straight-of-hormuz/106380388

[randomx]

A lot of stuff going round the Pute's scared he'll be next.

Well, l'd doubt it, not by Trump anyway.

See the clip of some reporter asking Trump what he thought about Russia supplying Iran with intelligence on US targets, Trump shut it down like a brat called it a stupid question and still couldn't listen to anything bad about his Pute love.

[randomx]

How are fuel prices going in your area ?

Diesels gone from 182 here up to 2.05 over the wkend.

Whether it's the usual long wkend fuel gauge for some cash or Iran, dk. 

[willedoo]

It's possible the issue soon will be whether you can get fuel, rather than how much it costs. A lot of the fuel distributors have run out or are soon to run out, and the servos will shut when they run out of supplies. United has suspended all customer deliveries until they take stock of things. Hopefully it won't last too long. I filled up on Friday, so will just restrict driving to essential only for a while. The cities are prioritised so the country and regional areas will feel it first if it comes to that. 

[randomx]

Hmmm, l wonder, hope your wrong hate to think of prices if not.

Forgot to mention diesel was 173 here a wk and 1/2 ago. Then to 180s, now atm anyway , 205-210. lt is a long wkend though so we'll see through wk.

 

[red750]

$130 billion wiped of ASX, petrol stations running dry. Prices skyrocketing.

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

One if the issues is not the actual closure of the Hormuz Strait, but the unavailability of insurance. Most shipping is financed and every maritime finance agreement (usually leases) includes maintaining insurance as a covenant to the lease agreement. No insurance, no sailing - it is as simple as that.With the US rather stupidly torpedoing the Iranian warship, as far as Iran is concerned, if they weren't already, all bets are off. 

 

The other problem is most cargo/freight shipping is sold as futures contracts, which have specific terms and conditions. In theory, the freight has to be performed according to the standard terms and conditions, which I think includes route stipulation. So, if the route markedly changes, and it's really not profitable to reroute, under the standard terms, force majuere may be able to be invoked and the futures contract voided. If there is no force majuere clause, the shipper may have to reroute, but een then it can be an issue,because the freight contract will specify a time to deliver. 

 

In either case, the shipper may well go broke - or at leastdeclare bankruptcy. 

 

In the former case (lease agreement), two things happen. The lessor/s take control of the ship - which is an unusual occurence, or the lesee will moor the ship in a dangerous area (e.g. Somalia) and let the lessor/s know they can pick it up there (more often). This will take out shipping capacity. 

 

And with an absence of supply while demand goes high... and costs increase... frieght spot prices which are not subject to the same constraints as futures contracts will skurocket. Yeah, they can reroute and the supplies will take a week or two longer to get to where they are going, but you are going to pay for it.

 

 

[rgmwa]

The Washington Post and other sources have reported that two ships owned by an Iranian company that the US has accused of supplying material to Iran's missile program left a Chinese chemical-storage port during the week and appeared to be headed towards Iran, according to a Washington Post analysis of ship-tracking data, satellite imagery and Treasury Department records. They are known to have transported perchlorate in the past to make rocket fuel. I wonder how far they'll get. 

 

[onetrack]

The next thing to cause worry is not just fuel, but fertiliser and chemicals. As many farmers head into seeding by mid-to-late April, a lack of fuel is just the start of the seeding programme problems, and the unavailability of fertiliser and weedicides (which are nearly all shipped in from overseas, and a lot via the Straits of Hormuz) is going to cause some agricultural users, some stress.

 

Urea is a major fertiliser in big demand, and nearly all of it comes from the petrochemical refineries of the Middle East, such as Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia.

[randomx]

One things for sure from here , whatever happens our servos will be happily gouging away for at least a yr or two after this all the way to the bank. Even if the war ended next wk.

[onetrack]

I got this advice (below) from Fuelwatch W.A. 

 

"Tomorrow (Tuesday, 10 March 2026), most branded metro sites are again hiking their diesel price:

Ampol up to 251.9 cents per litre (cpl);

EG Ampol up to 244.9 cpl;

Caltex up to 243.9 cpl;

BP up to 239.9 cpl;

Reddy Express up to 235.9 cpl;

Vibe up to 233.7 cpl; and United up to 231.9 cpl. This follows diesel hikes the last five days by most of the major brands.

Tomorrow's average metro diesel price will be 226.2 cpl, however there will be over 20 Perth sites selling below 209 cpl."

 

I paid $1.60 to fill up my diesel Hilux last Tuesday (3rd March). 

[Jerry_Atrick]

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Behind a paywall,but it looks like the Iranian women's soccer team have taken a like to Australia: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sos-hand-signal-as-bus-drives-iranian-women-s-soccer-team-from-final-match-20260309-p5o8mq.html

Edited yesterday at 12:43 PM by Jerry_Atrick

[onetrack]

29 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

 

A bit galling to see him wearing an Ampol-branded shirt!!?

[old man emu]

Now Australia has been dragged into this mess. We are sending a surveillance plane to Saudi Arabia, ostensibly to help protect the Gulf countries. I wonder who asked us to do that.

[Jerry_Atrick]

It's an interesting decision to say the least. 

 

OK.. there were 3 Aussies on the submaring that sunk the iranian vessel. Dfeence personnel exchange is common The Aussie government may or may niot have been informed of ther planned strike beforehand but the US Navy is hardly going to surface, drop of 3 submariners and then return to its mission... 

 

Sending our assets us entirely different. And given how slow Australia was in sending assets to Ukraine, us sending as solitary asset to the ME so quickly indicates one of two things (or something in between): Australia was strongarmed into it or Australia supports it. Either way, a small - almost symbolic contribution drags Australia into the thick of it. And the Iranan regime has operatives globally, so if you don't live in a big city, be thankful. 

 

No doubt there will be a terrorist attack in London soon. I am sure the security agencies are working overtime preventing and intercepting attempted attacks, and they are generally excellent in this role. But they only have so many resources at thir disposal. 

 

I returned to London not long after the Tavistock bus was blown up in London in 2005 and it was then I started work in banking in London. Conscious that the banking sector may well be a target (we were once locked in the building while protestors condascended on a competitor's building next door, but we were also targeted), I started coming into work very early and leaving late - and used the motorcycle as they are likely to a) blow up some concentrated mass transit vehicle or b) ram into crowded areas for most damage. My route was circuitous, but minimised concentratio of population. 

 

The London Bridge attack, admittedly during social hours so I would have unlikely to have been there at the time, took place on part of what would be my normal route, however, I would go over Soutwark bridge instead and around a ring road - adding about 5 minutes or so to the trip on a motorbike, but only sprinkings of people on the street. 

 

My purchase and return to motorcycling for work was coincidental, and to be honest, the times I normally travel to work on public transport would minimise the risk, but I am glad I did get the motorcycle now as it gives me almost complete control of timing and routes. 

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

On another note, I finally got a very brief chat with one of my reports, who is Iranian - and holidays in Israel - well, when I say holiday, attends to the capital of her faith, which started in Iran and was thrown out I believe.. B'Hai faith.. 

 

I didn't have time to speak to her in detail about it, but to sum up her view, regime change was needed as there were zero human rights outside of a clique.. Those vids you see of modern day Iranian life that depict tolerance aren't the norm, apparetly. She is sad that it has come to what it has and that the current situation is far from perrfect, but something had to happen. I didn't get around to whether she supports Chump and Net on this matter.. And I slept in this morning so won't be in the office until tomorrow, when hopefully she will be in the office, and I will ask more.

 

Of course, she represents one person's view..but a person who from a religious perspective is in the minority, but has direct experience and still has family there. 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Jerry_Atrick

[onetrack]

The Bahai's are hated by all the Islamic sects and they get a hard time everywhere they go. My first girlfriend, when I was in the Army, turned to the Bahai faith after I broke up with her in early '72.

It was strange, because she came from South Africa (she was a white and a redhead, and of British ancestry), and her family were very religious Christians.

 

She came back and paid us a visit about 5 years afterwards, and I can recall my father being appalled at her turn to a "weirdo, airy-fairy religion", and he tried his best to convert her back.

But she was besotted with the mob, and was convinced they were the finest, most religious people on Earth - and she'd apparently found a new boyfriend in the group as well.

 

So she left, and I've never heard from her in the intervening 50 years. I have no idea where she went, and I can't even trace her. I would have liked to know how she ended up, whether she still worships them, or whether she "saw the light", and joined some other religious mob. Some people are alwayd looking for the religion that answers all their desires.