Middle East conflict

[red750]

Petrol prices have already gone up, and are likely to climb further with hostilities affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Jerry_Atrick]

More ammo to justify the war, I guess. 

 

Containerised freight futures are down; may be a good time to go long on longer dted contracts. 

[red750]

No regime change has resulted in improvement.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I dunno.. the regime change in 2021 in the US was a big improvement, I thought. 

[randomx]

Dunno much about anything in the middle east admittedly, it's all that damn entwined and goes back 1000s of yrs. Long as l can remember they've always been fighting, all hate ea other.

l dunno about Trump though, never have. He disgusts me in many ways but in this stuff, 1st thing comes to mind whatever else is goin on there is that it's just yet another tiny country where he knows they couldn't possibly lose yettttt, look at the way he treats Putin. But yet again bullies the little guy and Ukraine ! He should've taken Putin out just like these other two yrs ago. Putin's been harassing Europe, attacking countries killed millions of people, not to mention windows and aeroplanes and threatening the whole damn world decades , yet Trump too gutless to touch him it's sickening, while Putins still at it as we speak.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[red750]

In a later update, the Ayatollah's son was not killed, but his son-in-law and daughter-in-law were killed.

[old man emu]

It used to be that the POTUS had to seek the approval of Congress before declaring war. But that was back in the day when the USA was a democracy.

[willedoo]

57 minutes ago, randomx said:

Dunno much about anything in the middle east admittedly, it's all that damn entwined and goes back 1000s of yrs. Long as l can remember they've always been fighting, all hate ea other.

l dunno about Trump though, never have. He disgusts me in many ways but in this stuff, 1st thing comes to mind whatever else is goin on there is that it's just yet another tiny country where he knows they couldn't possibly lose yettttt, look at the way he treats Putin. But yet again bullies the little guy and Ukraine ! He should've taken Putin out just like these other two yrs ago. Putin's been harassing Europe, attacking countries killed millions of people, not to mention windows and aeroplanes and threatening the whole damn world decades , yet Trump too gutless to touch him it's sickening, while Putins still at it as we speak.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a slight difference. Putin controls the world's biggest nuclear force and Iran probably doesn't have one to their name. Nobody really knows how many of Putin's crackers will actually work when the time comes, but I don't think anyone wants to find out.

[randomx]

 

Even so , he won't even touch Putin, it's been pathetic to watch. And so the bully still rings true as he instead tries again and again to blame and push Z and Ukr around yet welcomes Putin like a giggling school girl.

[nomadpete]

Is it possible that Pootin doesn't mind US hitting Iran?

After all, according to reports the russian economy is in a bad way. They rely heavily on oil income, which is presently limited by caps on Russian oil prices. Right now, the price of crude is likely to go up bigtime? Would this boost Russian income?

 

I doubt that Donold would do much to enrage his mate Pootin.

 

Just looking for an upside. There always is one but not always obvious.

 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by nomadpete

[facthunter]

It's an " ILL wind that Blows nobody any good" But Trump is mostly wind and is definitely Mentally ILL. Nev

[willedoo]

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has authorised a full military response from Saudi armed forces if Iran attacks them again. 

[randomx]

Irans bloody 90 million gees, didn't know that . That'd be a huge population really for one of those countries wouldn't it ?.

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

They're mostly inbreds. Marrying cousins.

[willedoo]

It surprised me, I would have guessed half that. It must have big city populations.

[willedoo]

They still have old Tomcats and Phantoms left over from the days of the Shah. I wonder how many of them will be left after this is all over. Iran was the only foreign nation that received Tomcats. Their variant had the same engines as our F-111s. A big part of the reason none of our civilian air museums were allowed to have F-111 engines for display. The Amberley air force museum has a cut-away display engine, but that's under air force control.

[onetrack]

[onetrack]

[willedoo]

It's a mixed up place, the Middle East. Just one example - in Saudi Arabia they don't watch The Flintstones, but the people in Abu Dhabi do.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Does Iran have oil? That may provide the answer to Chump's ultimate goal, I would think.

 

Does Iran pose a threat to Israel? I would suggest that is Netanyu's motivation, as well as keepong out of court. 

 

Does that make Chump subservient to Israel? Hmmm.. I will leave that one to the court ofpublic opinion.

 

Do Iranians want to be free of the Sharia based regime? I guess that makes them at least partially supportive. 

 

Will the civilian deaths directly resulting from the offensive be more or less than those by the regime resulting from what looked like peaceful protests? We'll have to wait and see. 

 

Is there a good chance it will get worse before it gets better? Definitely.#

 

Is there a good chance it will eventually get better (by that I mean restoring Iran to its political place or better than it was pre-1979)? Andiwhat time would that good chance take? That is subjective, but  based on history of these interventions, especially in the region, I would not give it 50/50.. 

 

Is it justified?

 

 

Edited 10 hours ago by Jerry_Atrick

[willedoo]

I think most Iranians would say it's justified. The problem with these things is that we all know how well appeasement works. A lot of people are calling for the whole thing to stop and just go back to more of the same appeasement. If it's ever going to change, at some stage someone has to bite the bullet and have the courage to get rid of the regime. It's good that they've set a goal of regime change instead of the usual half baked adventures kicking the can down the road.

[onetrack]

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Does Iran have oil? That may provide the answer to Chump's ultimate goal, I would think.

Lust for oil has been the root cause of many wars over the last 80 or 90 years - but in this case, I'm not so sure it plays as big a part in the attempted removal of the regime. But Trump and Americans in general nurse a long-held and extremely bitter grudge against Iran, largely due to the constant chants of "Death to America", the 1979-81 hostage crisis, the bombing of the USS Cole and the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon.

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Does Iran pose a threat to Israel? I would suggest that is Netanyu's motivation, as well as keepong out of court. 

Netanyahu nurses a bigger grudge than America against Iran and Islamic terrorists, because they killed his brother at Entebbe. He burns with anti-Islamic hatred. And Irans constantly repeated aim of "wiping Israel off the face of the Earth" only feeds Bibi's hatred of them. So, a big Yes.

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Does that make Chump subservient to Israel? Hmmm.. I will leave that one to the court of public opinion.

I would not say 100% subservient, but he's very happy that the Israelis aims, and his aims, align. Plus, he can see major gains for Trump Inc in beachside resorts, hotels, deals, etc, in a Middle East that he can move into, without a lot of opposition.

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Do Iranians want to be free of the Sharia based regime? I guess that makes them at least partially supportive. 

Many Iranians want to be free of religious terror, but many hard-liners still exist in the country. Whether the former can subdue the latter without external support, seems dubious at this point.

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Will the civilian deaths directly resulting from the offensive be more or less than those by the regime resulting from what looked like peaceful protests? We'll have to wait and see. 

Civilians always suffer the most in wars. I can tell you this much - Trumps claim that the "war will be finished in 4 weeks", holds about as much value, as his claim that he would end the Ukraine War, in 1 day. I would have to opine this war is going to incur many civilian casualties over many months, maybe even years.

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Is there a good chance it will get worse before it gets better? Definitely.#

I agree completely.

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Is there a good chance it will eventually get better (by that I mean restoring Iran to its political place or better than it was pre-1979)? And in what time would that good chance take? That is subjective, but based on history of these interventions, especially in the region, I would not give it 50/50.. 

I doubt Iran will get "better" for a long time to come, perhaps 20 or 30 years. Islamic hardliners will keep coming to the fore, and continue to gather up more adherents, after losing their initial adherents.

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Is it justified?

That is the vexing question. Many world leaders and senior politicians seem to be quite happy that the Ayatollah is gone. But "justification" can only be measured by the eventual outcome, which is very unclear at this point in time.

[onetrack]

The latest news is that it appears trigger-happy Kuwaitis have shot down 3 x USAAF F-18's, in a severe case of "friendly fire". It seems that all the crews baled out successfully.

[willedoo]

I saw some footage of one rescued pilot being looked after by Kuwaitis. It said he was in an F-15 but don't know if that was accurate or not. If they are Airforce they would be F-15s, F-18s Marine Corps or Navy. Martin Baker seats in the F-18s, ACES II in the F-15.

[willedoo]

The post regime plan put up by the crown prince would be the most workable in my opinion, except for one thing. It could only work if what's left of the military swung behind it. The people are diverse but most just want to live in peace. The problem will be the hard liners and how much control over the arms they have. They've had a lot of power for a long time and won't want to give it up.