Middle East conflict

[red750]

Petrol prices have already gone up, and are likely to climb further with hostilities affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Jerry_Atrick]

More ammo to justify the war, I guess. 

 

Containerised freight futures are down; may be a good time to go long on longer dted contracts. 

[red750]

No regime change has resulted in improvement.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I dunno.. the regime change in 2021 in the US was a big improvement, I thought. 

[randomx]

Dunno much about anything in the middle east admittedly, it's all that damn entwined and goes back 1000s of yrs. Long as l can remember they've always been fighting, all hate ea other.

l dunno about Trump though, never have. He disgusts me in many ways but in this stuff, 1st thing comes to mind whatever else is goin on there is that it's just yet another tiny country where he knows they couldn't possibly lose yettttt, look at the way he treats Putin. But yet again bullies the little guy and Ukraine ! He should've taken Putin out just like these other two yrs ago. Putin's been harassing Europe, attacking countries killed millions of people, not to mention windows and aeroplanes and threatening the whole damn world decades , yet Trump too gutless to touch him it's sickening, while Putins still at it as we speak.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[red750]

In a later update, the Ayatollah's son was not killed, but his son-in-law and daughter-in-law were killed.

[old man emu]

It used to be that the POTUS had to seek the approval of Congress before declaring war. But that was back in the day when the USA was a democracy.

[willedoo]

57 minutes ago, randomx said:

Dunno much about anything in the middle east admittedly, it's all that damn entwined and goes back 1000s of yrs. Long as l can remember they've always been fighting, all hate ea other.

l dunno about Trump though, never have. He disgusts me in many ways but in this stuff, 1st thing comes to mind whatever else is goin on there is that it's just yet another tiny country where he knows they couldn't possibly lose yettttt, look at the way he treats Putin. But yet again bullies the little guy and Ukraine ! He should've taken Putin out just like these other two yrs ago. Putin's been harassing Europe, attacking countries killed millions of people, not to mention windows and aeroplanes and threatening the whole damn world decades , yet Trump too gutless to touch him it's sickening, while Putins still at it as we speak.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a slight difference. Putin controls the world's biggest nuclear force and Iran probably doesn't have one to their name. Nobody really knows how many of Putin's crackers will actually work when the time comes, but I don't think anyone wants to find out.

[randomx]

 

Even so , he won't even touch Putin, it's been pathetic to watch. And so the bully still rings true as he instead tries again and again to blame and push Z and Ukr around yet welcomes Putin like a giggling school girl.

[nomadpete]

Is it possible that Pootin doesn't mind US hitting Iran?

After all, according to reports the russian economy is in a bad way. They rely heavily on oil income, which is presently limited by caps on Russian oil prices. Right now, the price of crude is likely to go up bigtime? Would this boost Russian income?

 

I doubt that Donold would do much to enrage his mate Pootin.

 

Just looking for an upside. There always is one but not always obvious.

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by nomadpete

[facthunter]

It's an " ILL wind that Blows nobody any good" But Trump is mostly wind and is definitely Mentally ILL. Nev

[willedoo]

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has authorised a full military response from Saudi armed forces if Iran attacks them again. 

[randomx]

Irans bloody 90 million gees, didn't know that . That'd be a huge population really for one of those countries wouldn't it ?.

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

They're mostly inbreds. Marrying cousins.

[willedoo]

It surprised me, I would have guessed half that. It must have big city populations.

[willedoo]

They still have old Tomcats and Phantoms left over from the days of the Shah. I wonder how many of them will be left after this is all over. Iran was the only foreign nation that received Tomcats. Their variant had the same engines as our F-111s. A big part of the reason none of our civilian air museums were allowed to have F-111 engines for display. The Amberley air force museum has a cut-away display engine, but that's under air force control.

[onetrack]

[onetrack]

[willedoo]

It's a mixed up place, the Middle East. Just one example - in Saudi Arabia they don't watch The Flintstones, but the people in Abu Dhabi do.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Does Iran have oil? That may provide the answer to Chump's ultimate goal, I would think.

 

Does Iran pose a threat to Israel? I would suggest that is Netanyu's motivation, as well as keepong out of court. 

 

Does that make Chump subservient to Israel? Hmmm.. I will leave that one to the court ofpublic opinion.

 

Do Iranians want to be free of the Sharia based regime? I guess that makes them at least partially supportive. 

 

Will the civilian deaths directly resulting from the offensive be more or less than those by the regime resulting from what looked like peaceful protests? We'll have to wait and see. 

 

Is there a good chance it will get worse before it gets better? Definitely.#

 

Is there a good chance it will eventually get better (by that I mean restoring Iran to its political place or better than it was pre-1979)? Andiwhat time would that good chance take? That is subjective, but  based on history of these interventions, especially in the region, I would not give it 50/50.. 

 

Is it justified?

 

 

Edited 5 minutes ago by Jerry_Atrick