FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUND 1 TODAY.

[Phil Perry]

I lifted this from Reuters. . .It 'sort of' outlines the procedure and possible exit polling.

 

• The first round of France's presidential election may be too close to call when polls close on Sunday because initial projections will not be available as early as in the past, pollsters and their watchdog said on Friday.
   
  Most polls see centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen qualifying on Sunday for a May 7 runoff, but conservative Francois Fillon and leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon are not far behind and within the margin of error.
   
  Adding to the suspense, the first polling stations to close will do so later than in previous votes. That means pollsters may not have had time to calculate first projections from partial results before 8:00 PM (1800 GMT), when media are allowed to report results.
   
  "The tighter it is, the longer we are going to wait to put something reliable out," Ifop's head of political studies Francois Kraus told Reuters, adding that only in a best-case scenario would the pollsters have a first estimate ready before 8:00 PM for media.
   
  In previous elections, the first polling stations closed at 6:00 PM, but that has been pushed back to 7:00 in part because there were too many leaks of partial results on social media and foreign news outlets before the closure of all stations at 2000.
   
   
  
•  
   
  
• That means pollsters will only have an hour to collect partial results from the first polling stations to close, which are mostly in smaller towns, before they can run algorithms to estimate projections, Kraus said.
   
  Better projections based on results from larger towns may not be available until 8:45 PM, he added.
   
  With the later closure, anything circulating on the Internet before 8:00 PM purporting to reflect partial results would be probably be based only on rumor, the head of France's polling watchdog said.
   
  http://www.reuters.com/arti...
   
  
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• French intel agencies are warning voters that if Le Pen wins, migrants could start riots . . . .
   
   
  

 

 

[Marty_d]

•  
   
  
• French intel agencies are warning voters that if Le Pen wins, migrants could start riots . . . .
   
  

If Le Pen wins, anyone with half a brain may riot.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

• French intel agencies are warning voters that if Le Pen wins, migrants could start riots . . . .
   
  

You meant "more riots" Shirley.

 

Some are saying it will be the fall of the EU, not sure how they are going to stop Le Pen though. Hold it up in the Courts is one way.

 

BTW, I don't think she will get in, but the growth of Nationalism around Europe is certainly something that can not be continued to be denied. It would have been unheard of even just 10 years ago for a "Right Wing Party" (sic) to have even gotten a few percent in an election, a point completely avoided by the Dutch Press in their recent election when the Right took some 48%.

 

Their idea of a "resounding defeat" and mine are a wee bit different.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

Oh wow, Exit Polls have Macaroon at 24% and Le Pen at 22%.

 

If you remember Trump was also a bit lower on Exit Polls, and Brexit private opinion polls had Leave behind Remain the day before, because it was established that with the constant berating of the Left, people feared saying that they actually voted, or would vote Right, so Le Pen could actually be leading at this point.

 

 

[Marty_d]

with the constant berating of the Left, people feared saying that they actually voted, or would vote Right, so Le Pen could actually be leading at this point.

You really think that's still an issue? With this growth of nationalism around Europe, these hard-line right wingers still fear giving their true opinion?

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Le Pen is being painted by French / UK the media as 'Far Right' .this is odd, since she has always pushed policies along the lines of Labour in the UK ie, nationalising the Banks and other industries, and other socialist ideas which mirror left wing ideals here in blighty.

 

Anyway, she never had a chance of winning the presidency as she is regarded as a looney for wanting to chuck all the muslims out of the country. Bit of a difficult one that, since many, primarily of Turkish origin, have been there in their banilieus for 4 decades or more, being invited in as guest workers. Not only this, the French electoral system is structured into Two rounds. I predict she'll get circa 23 -25% in the second round in May, with Macron winning it by a country mile. I was amazed that she made it to the second round at all !

 

Macron has the big money behind him, even though he has virtually no party infrastructure being a newbie on the block, but well financed and feted by all the media, whereas Le Pen cannot get any banks to lend her money to fund her campaign.

 

I wouldn't bet on a 'Trumpy' surprise here. . . .

 

 

[Marty_d]

Let's hope not.

 

"Liberté, égalité, fraternité" doesn't seem to hold quite true for Mme. Le Pen.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

What a time to live in, Brexit was a plan by a Government that went horribly wrong, American Elections with people saying the worst 2 choices ever, Far Right almost wins Netherlands Election ...

 

... and now in France we have a "Right Wing" Vs an Amateur with a Pedofile Wife who should be in jail!

 

 

[storchy neil]

so its ok to have a twenty five years younger wife or lover but not ok to have a twenty years younger husband or lover neil

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

What a time to live in, Brexit was a plan by a Government that went horribly wrong, American Elections with people saying the worst 2 choices ever, Far Right almost wins Netherlands Election ...

... and now in France we have a "Right Wing" Vs an Amateur with a Pedofile Wife who should be in jail!

I am not so sure Brexit was a plan by the government that went wrong. If you looked at the campaigning by Cameron and his mates, you would have thought they were closet Brexiteers. I seem to recall some pretty dodgy US presidential candidates of days gone by, as well..

 

so its ok to have a twenty five years younger wife or lover but not ok to have a twenty years younger husband or lover neil

Apparently not, if the Kylie saga is anything to go by

 

 

[bexrbetter]

so its ok to have a twenty five years younger wife or lover but not ok to have a twenty years younger husband or lover

Neil, I used the word "Pedofile" (slang for paedophile), referring to "someone who has an inappropriate love of children, they cannot keep their love of children inside social bounds and limitations",

 

What's not ok is for a 40 year old teacher to be having a sexual relationship with her 15 year old student.

 

French Law: Article 227-27 prohibits sexual relations with minors over age 15 (aged 15, 16 or 17) "1° where they are committed by an ascendant or by any other person having a legal or factual authority over the victim; 2° where they are committed by a person abusing the authority conferred by his functions."

 

Very serious crime with jail time in America, I would agree that's generally overboard, but in Australia it's usually loss of job and criminal charges.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

I am not so sure Brexit was a plan by the government that went wrong. If you looked at the campaigning by Cameron

Yes, I was watching Prime Minister Cameron just making a speech today about onward and upward with Brexit.

 

Wait a moment .....

 

I seem to recall some pretty dodgy US presidential candidates of days gone by, as well..

For sure, but 2 of them as bad left standing?

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Let's hope not.

"Liberté, égalité, fraternité" doesn't seem to hold quite true for Mme. Le Pen.

Quite possibly true Marty. Mind you,. . .it was a bit rich them using that phrase during / shortly after the French Revolution, Especially if you happened to have an aristocratic name !

 

 

[Phil Perry]

If Le Pen wins, anyone with half a brain may riot.

No change there then,. . .there has been nightly car burning and riotous behaviour of various shapes and sizes happening every night of the week Somewhere in the Paris suburbs for quite a while. .

 

An outsider might well think that they do not appear to require a 'Reason' for these activities,. . well,. . if there is one, no one seems to know what it is. . .

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Here is an interestng article from James Delingpole with regards to M. Macron, who is tipped to be the next President of France..

 

Delingpole is a superbly good writer, who is very well respected for researching his facts very deeply and is, somewhat grudgingly, respected by both ends of the political spectrum.

 

 

 

If you want to know the likely result of next month’s French presidential election run off, just look at how the markets responded. The euro and the French markets both jumped dramatically.

 

And this has nothing to do with the underlying strength of the sclerotic, unionised, statist, overtaxed, unproductive French economy or, indeed, with the future of the doomed euro.

 

It was simply a case of the status quo breathing a sigh of relief that it was going to be business as usual, after all: Emmanuel Macron, the de facto Establishment candidate is now pretty much a shoo-in for the French presidency; his rival, Marine Le Pen doesn’t stand a prayer – of that the Establishment will make sure.

 

But Brexit. But Donald Trump…

 

Nope: I’m afraid those arguments just don’t wash in this case. Yes, it’s true the world is in the throes of a revolution in which the globalist elite is gradually being overthrown by populist, nationalist rebels. But it won’t happen yet in France – a country whose political system has more in common with Putin’s Russia or Erdoğan’s Turkey or some African hellhole with a president-for-life than it does with liberal democracies.

 

That is, Emmanuel Macron is going to win this presidency because it was decided long ago by France’s Establishment that he was the least-worst option of the candidates available.

 

The fact that he is a hollow man – a slippery, snake-oil-salesman with a winning smile and nice suits – who will do almost nothing seriously to address France’s massive social and economic problems is a help, not a hindrance.

 

Emmanuel Macron is the left-leaning French Establishment’s Manchurian Candidate.

 

He attended one of France’s most elite schools where he was trained in Civil Service, graduating in 2004. His biography states that in 2007, he served as deputy rapporteur for the Commission to improve French growth headed by Jacques Attali, Macron was 29. But the Commission wasn’t formed until 2008. Obviously he is a bit ‘math challenged’. The Commission report was heavily criticized for its proposal to ‘relaunch immigration’ and ‘open borders’… Attali was ridiculed and called a ‘globalist’.

 

Sound like anyone we know?

 

Macron left the Commission, which was shelved September 2010, to work for Rothschilds & Cie Banque where he became an overnight millionaire while working the Nestle acquisition of Pfizer’s nutritional outlet, which closed in 2012. Nestle is a client of Rothschilds. Macron had no experience in acquisitions and mergers whatsoever…

 

What does one do when one makes millions overnight? Apparently one quits.

 

He then left Rothschilds to work for Hollande as deputy secretary general of Elysee, and eventually Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Data in 2014 where he served 18 months before running for Presidency. I’d call that a pretty fast paced runup with little to no political experience or business savvy.

 

Indeed.

 

Reports that Macron is a breath of fresh air who will transform French politics could hardly be further from the truth. Macron is an énarque – liberal elite through-and-through; the living embodiment of the French Deep State.

 

So how has this apparently isolated and underfunded individual managed all this in such a short time? It is clear that Macron has powerful supporters behind the scenes, and a clue may lie in the little-discussed fact that some years ago he was identified as a member of ‘les Gracques’ — a discreet centre-left pressure group loosely staffed by influential chief executives and civil service mandarins. They are pro-market socialists who long ago gave up on the Socialist party. Many are fellow ‘énarques’ (graduates of ENA) and every step of Macron’s career could have been directed by them. Spotted as a brilliant and charming student, Macron could first have been launched into the prestigious state Finance Inspectorate, then switched into Rothschild to gain business experience (and wealthy support) and then placed like a time bomb in Hollande’s outer office, where he ticked away until he could be moved into the heart of the Valls government. Last August he finally exploded into action at the perfect moment to cause maximum damage to Hollande, Valls and the entire Socialist presidential election campaign. Macron’s rise bears all the hallmarks of a classic ENA undercover operation, a fundamental part of the énarques’ stock-in-trade and one in which the country’s leading bureaucrats are cynically trained.

 

Like Obama, he got where is because the System arranged it that way. Consider, for example, how ruthlessly the best of the Presidential candidates – the Thatcherite François Fillon – was destroyed by an unwholesome alliance of the government Deep State and the judiciary.

 

Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.

 

The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

 

While many French – and pretty much all the global commentariat – appear to have made up their minds that they have just dodged a bullet because they are not, after all, going to end up with a Presidency in the hands of the “far right”, they really have very little to celebrate.

 

All France has done is to guarantee the election of a lame-duck caretaker president – Continuation Hollande – who will ensure that France’s ongoing decline will continue unabated. Its industries will stagnate; its social unrest will intensify; ever greater numbers of its citizenry will be murdered in homegrown terrorist attacks; its economy will tank; the country that was once arguably the most civilised and beautiful and sophisticated in all the world will descend ever deeper into chaos, ugliness, and despair.

 

Salut, President Macron. Adieu, la Belle France.

 

.

 

 

[facthunter]

generalising... the French do seem to take their politics more seriously than most other peoples, They are also pretty forgiving of what we would call "scandals" that capture the imagination in more naïve, puritanical (on the surface USA). The French used to regard the US as politically some what immature, and probably still do.. A concept with which I would concur. There used to be a good "bond" between the Octagon and the USA. The statue of Liberty was a French present to the USA.

 

Phil , America is probably a more violent place by far with higher rates of incarceration than France. I'd be more confident of France behaving (government wise) far more sanely than the USA. I'd even put money on it and I'm not a gambler. Nev

 

 

[Marty_d]

Here is an interestng article from James Delingpole with regards to M. Macron, who is tipped to be the next President of France..

.

Well written article. Where's his article on Le Pen?

 

 

[Marty_d]

Quite possibly true Marty. Mind you,. . .it was a bit rich them using that phrase during / shortly after the French Revolution, Especially if you happened to have an aristocratic name !

You know the sad thing... I do! (Have an aristocratic French surname).

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Well written article. Where's his article on Le Pen?

The only piece I've read of his some while ago was re her Dad, Jean Marie Le Pen, whom he compleyely deconstructed as, basically a complete and utter violent political lunatic.

 

If I find anything more recent, I'll post it. He doesn't seem to be an accolyte of Mrs Le Pen at all, but he does try to 'Out' any inconsistencies in an overall situation which is why he's very hard to pigeonhole.

 

* * * * *

 

You know the sad thing... I do! (Have an aristocratic French surname).

Never mind Mon Ami, . . .it's OK to have one nowadays,. . . but your secret is completely safe with me. There used to be a popular French sparkling wine made with pears I believe,. . .it was marketed in the UK as. . . . 'CHAMPAGNE PERRY' so I share your fears. . . .

 

 

[Phil Perry]

John Redwood's Diary

 

The French election

 

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 10:01 PM PDT

 

We all mourn the death of a policeman in Paris. I send my condolences to his family.

 

The untimely death shortened the political campaigning, but could not derail the election.

 

Last week-end French electors faced plenty of choice. The opinion polls held close to election day correctly predicted that voting intentions were very split, and many were still undecided. One of the most fascinating features of the polls was the collapse of support for the socialist party, the Labour party equivalent, and the difficulty for the Republican candidate, the Conservative equivalent, to catch up three others.

 

Whoever becomes President of France will not belong to either of the two traditional main parties. He or she did not gain more than one quarter of the votes on the first ballot. This means that the uncertainties created by such a wide open election will continue after we know who the President is. The Presidential election will be followed by an election to the Parliament. If the Parliament votes are more strongly for the more traditional parties the new President will have limited powers and have to get on with a Prime Minister who does not agree on some big matters.

 

Mr Macron is the front runner to win in round two. A former socialist party Minister, he is now a reborn self styled centrist with a movement, not a political party. He might face a Parliament to his right. There could be clashes on economic reform and security. Were Mrs Le Pen to prove the pollsters wrong and emerge as the overall winner, she would probably face a Parliament to her left, with an inbuilt majority to keep France in the Euro and the EU when she wishes to leave.

 

It is a fascinating commentary on modern France that two of the top four candidates were outsiders, and one was an insider dressed up as an outsider. The only pure political establishment candidate was damaged by his past use of public money to run his office. It implies that many French voters are unhappy with the terrorist attacks, the high unemployment, the lack of growth in living standards and the lack of control over their borders. Some voted for a more left wing alternative who wants to take back control and go for more socialism in one country. Some voted for the National front to leave the Euro and assert national borders. Some voted for the independent who promises to do politics differently without being too precise how.

 

If the French people fail to give a decisive mandate to a new President, and then fail to give their President a decent level of support in Parliament, the anger and anguish will continue.

 

* * John Redwood is a UK Member of Parliament, and regular diarist.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

I expect Macron will avoid interviews and debates like the plague for the next few weeks, his inexperience will show up badly with the hard questions.

 

It will help that most Press are Left leaning, sad scenario, Macron will be nothing but a puppet for the Establishment.

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Macron has just agreed to a Televised debate with Mrs. Le Pen. Oh dear,. . . she is a very well seasoned and well polished pollie, and knows her facts. She will rip the poor guy to shreds. . . .I'm amazed that his backers allowed this, but perhaps they were painted into a corner, since 54 percent of the country want a referendum on the EU question, as does Le Pen, and M. Macron most certainly doesn't. And neither do his financiers, ie the EU, the big banks, the 'Establishement' et al.

 

I've watched some other interviews between her and Fillon, Hollande and other lower standing pollies, and there was no doubt that she utterly stitched them all up with her sharp wit and knowledge of French culture. I Speak a bit of French, but cannot understand it at the speed she speaks it. . . I only watch vid clips with subtitiles ( coward )

 

The main thing that I don't like about her is her attitude towards some of the things which have pushed and held France into the doldrums over the last couple of decades, one of these is the 35 hour week. Both her Dad and Her are against any reform of that. . .If you ask ANY business person who has tried to run a medium to large company in France to show how this works, you'll find that the unions are all powerful. They take NO orders from management, and are a law unto themselves. THEY deicde the working practices, and walk out at the drop of a shapoe. An American was offering to bail out one of their massve loss making car factories in 2013, I forget whether it was a Renault, Citroen or Peugeot plant, and after 2 months, he walked away and took his money with him. . .they'd rather close the place down than allow an outsider to show them exactly what they were doing wrong, and how to try and put it right . . .

 

The other 'Leftie' programme she would have, if elected, would be to bloody Nationalize everything in sight. . .NOW, despite feelings to the contrary, I am NOT against left wing ideas per se, but Nationalizing industries in the UK turned out to be a disaster. The 'Dead Hand' of State control never seems to work, as no one has to worry about being 'Forward, Progressive and Dynamic' thereby getting the maximum output from whatever industry they are working inside. . . this has been shown again and again. with examples like British Rail, and the Car industries . . And our left wing group, the Labour Party, are still banging the drum about promoting this it all over again, expecting a different outcome. . . .?

 

Le Pen is and always was a 'Left Winger' and I guess she always will be if she has any principles. It is only the MSM which is painting her as FAR RIGHT . . .what a load of bollox !. . .but it helps their narrative since FAR RIGHT = EXTREMIST = NAZIS . . . If she DID surprise everyone and won against the odds,. . . ie, massive establishment / media opposition, then I really dunno if this would be a good thing for France.

 

My French friends, and Brit Expats living /working there tell me that generally, the French people are realy NOT like us Brits 'N' Aussies,. . .their thought processes are very different.. . . .

 

One thing is for certain, M. Macron, with his total lack of any management / Political experience whatsoever, certainly will not. . . .and we'll be back to square one an a very short time, if Europe has not become a huge Islamic Caliphate by then.

 

 

[Phil Perry]

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I Love the subliminal 'Trump' hairpiece on Mrs. Le Pen. . . . . .** Giggle **

 

[Phil Perry]

Another day in the wonderfully placid tourist haven of Paris. . . .

 

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Sad really,. . .it used to be a beautiful city. . . .

 

[bexrbetter]

Sad really,. . .it used to be a beautiful city. . . .

Damn you all to hell bloody Buddhists!

 

Or was it the Hindu's again?