Another name for that is "Feast & Famine Variable". It's much better than guessing. I discovered it in 1979, It's like cracking the Enigma code, but no where near as complex.
 
	 
 
	The F&F Variable predicts disasters before they happen, provided the disasters have occurred before, for which they then become "precedents" for future reading of the predictions given up by the Variable's plot line, and information accompanying it.