octave

Interestingly most democratic country list correlates quite well with this list World Happiness Report - Wikipedia

In 1950, the world population was 2.6 billion.In 2019, it is 7.7 billion. This 7.7 billion is a lot more than the estimates for 2019 were some years ago.

 

Actually, I agree it probably will not exceed 10 billion, but not for the nice reasons put forward by well-meaning bleeding hearts.

What we do know is the percentage rate of population growth peaked in the 60s (a baby boom that I am part of) and is steadily decreasing. In terms of actual numbers of births - Total annual births were highest in the late 1980s at about 139 million,[8] and as of 2011 were expected to remain essentially constant at a level of 135 million,[9] while deaths numbered 56 million per year and were expected to increase to 80 million per year by 2040.[10] The median age of the world's population was estimated to be 30.4 years in 2018.[11]

Don't get me wrong there are way too many of us to live as we do however it is important to understand how population growth works and how it is growing. It is often said that we have exponential growth but we don't There is also a perception that the problem is the birth rate but without falling below replacement rate there is little we can do at that end of the equation. The total number of the population is determined by how many children are born and how long we live.

The global fertility rate has halved since 1950. In 1950 the rate was 5 children per women. in 50 years it has dropped to 2.5 children per woman. The problem is not really any longer at the source but those people from before the fertility rates dropped. If fertility rates don't increase the problem becomes life expectancy. If life expectancy stays the same it is predicted that the population will reach about 10 billion and remain stable in 50 years. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.dyn.tfrt.in?end=2017&start=1960&view=chart

Here is a good explanation.

OK just to tie together a few different topics. . The thing that pisses me off about the conservatives is this, they are not at all interessted in preparing for the future. By way of an example consider electric vehicle policy The conservatives may have a policy on EVs in a year or so, Meanwhile almost every vehicle manufacturer has anounced their phase out of IC engines. Most of the larger cities in Europe have anounced in the near future a ban on IC engines. Norway has already reached the 50% of new registrations being EV (and the grid did not explode) and yet conservatives foolishly think we do not need a policy. Where will we buy IC piowered cars whan then rest of the world has moved on. I do not want to live iin a backwater because conservatives are sh1t scared of change.

Don't do it OK... we need more sensible lefties here, not less!!

My son moved to NZ 5 years ago and is about to become a NZ citizen. He keeps trying to convince us to move to NZ and I must admit the idea is becoming more and more appealing.

Guns are not the problem. In the USA the problem is Yanks. They are a stupid race, little education and little sense.

Every country has it's share of idiots but I prefer my local idiots to be unarmed.

There are 24 countries that emit 0.5-1.5% of the global co2 emmisions. This equals about 24% of global emmisions. Using the logic that our emmisions will not make any difference would surely apply to the other 23 countries with similar emmisions. 24% of co2 emmisions would fall into the category of we are too small to matter.

Our politics are being driven by a small number of highly vocal forsooth-sayers. The population of the Australian continent is 24.6 million with a population density of 3.26/ sq km. 5.75 million of us live in just two cities -Sydney and Melbourne. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere continents, Australia is still unoccupied. It would seem that a major source of human-produced carbon gases is metropolitan ground transport and electricity generation.

I posted this some time ago when we were talking about climate change. I shows atmospheric carbon gas levels over one 12 month period. The commentary mentions that the production of these gases from Australia is highest in our summer as a result of bushfires.

 

Would it be the case that the coal we export contributes to the northern hemisphere co2 emmisions?

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I'm not 100% sure, but I think that Spacey may have been slightly tongue-in-cheek.

Ah could be, I am of the opinion that we need a specific font for sarcarsm.

That is the definition of Conservative. To conserve the things as they are unless there is a persuasive argument for change.

When I was twenty my life worked pretty well but I am glad that I have gradually change the way I live my life. To get up every day and do the same thing is boring and unimaginative just because it worke in the past. If you do not try new things how do you know what you are doing is the best you can do?

The conservative view in the early days of the car was to yell at drivers - “Get a Horse!” greeted almost every automobile which appeared on the roads" Car History - Get a Horse! (Part 1: Early Skepticism)

What was the conservative veiw of woman being allowed to vote?

For many years conservatives told us that same sex marriage would be the end of society yet in 2017 it was finally allowed, is it a disaster for society, doenst look like it.

Early conservative attitudes to the aeroplane were not particularly positive. Being progressive means usually being vindicated by history whereas the passage of time usually makes coservatives look unenlighten and sometimes foolish.

Now only the crims have them, (other's have to hide their's away from the world), also the boys in Blue have them , ( so don't argue with the police )

"There are now more than 1 million registered guns in NSW, and 90,000 have been registered in the past two years alone, according to NSW Firearms Registry data released under freedom of information laws."

Sorry but I disagree, your statement is obviously incorrect which must be a little embarrasing for you.

Other than that you seem to suggest that we are negetaviely impacted because there are too few legal gun owners compared to criminals who possess guns. Which country would you prefer us to be like perhaps the US?

"You do undertstsnd that the budget is in deficit dont you????? This means it spends more than it gets."NOT according to Sco mo !.

 

Labor made ALL that dept, AND his government has made a surplus.

 

HE , doesn't lie. does he.

 

spacesailor

"The 2018 budget forecast a deficit of $18.2 billion. ... The 2017 budget forecast government spending to be in surplus in the 2020/21 fiscal year, while the 2018 budget forecast a surplus of $2.2 billion in2019/20. The government's debt level is forecast to be $629 billion in 2019/20."

Scott Morrison finally acknowledges budget remains in deficit as voters go to the polls

But we are not in surplus are we?

And if/when we are you do understand that surplus means you earn more than your operating expenses and after sevicing your debt interest you have some left over. You can have a surplus but still be in debt.

Space is there anything that you are not unhappy with?

WISH LISTA pension from the amount of the collected gst . ( it must be More than what the government lets go into the Pension)

 

If the government "don't get it" Who does ?.

 

spacesailor

The government spends what it gets in tax revinue and often more. You do undertstsnd that the budget is in deficit dont you????? This means it spends more than it gets.

"Producers gouge the system by agreement and don't try to keep prices down".AND the government wants it that way, as every dollar spent puts 10 cents in it's coffers !.

 

The more your power cost you, the more the government gets in GST.

 

spacesailor

True but of course gst is not kept by the government but used to pay for things like your pension and health care.

Octave you have forced me to re-read all my posts to see if I used the term conspiracy. I didn’t and don’t believe there is a conspiracy. The closest I came was to say computer modellers are scamming us- I could go into great detail about why I believe this. The alarmists are just doing what they think is best for everyone, but this gives themselves permission to overstate the case. I am sitting in a theatre right now in a presentation on the Epiroc electric mine truck. Technology like this will do more than all the Bob Browns for our environment.

The climate models are not the sole evidence. I think it was Arrehenius in the 1890s that proposed that the earth climate warmed by increasing the amount of CO2. It is only since 1960 that climate modelling has had any input into the debate. Getting rid of the models does not invalidate the physics.

but this gives themselves permission to overstate the case.

Just to be clear are you saying there is a case but it is being overstated?

I am not suggesting you have use the word conspiracy however my take is that it is implied.

"The world expert on the Maldives is Niklas Nils-Axel Morner:

He wrote the official report on sea level (which was unsurprisingly

suppressed):"

You posted a link to something called Climate Change and political Pollution, here is the last paragraph:

"Don’t be fooled: we can’t control the weather nor are we doomed to apocalyptic destruction. The data contradict the propaganda: no quick melting of the ice caps, no worrisome increase in sea level or hurricanes, no tales of terror. We are facing an aggressive political agenda, based on a totalitarian, Malthusian and pagan ideology, promoted by a powerful and noisy minority, in which the apocalyptic threat is nothing more than an effective instrument to manipulate public opinion. Science has been hijacked and polluted by politics. Our planet is not in danger, but our freedom most certainly is.

You also said this: #56 "You ask for sea level, temperature and ice loss data rather than opinion. I have posted links before to explanations of how the data has been manipulated and misrepresented.

#160 NASA is a victim of the funding trap and the need to maintain public support. There are plenty of credible studies that refute NASA interpretations of the data, but they are almost impossible to get published or peer reviewed. Also reputable popular science journals like New Scientist, for example, refuse to publish material that goes against the alarmist doctrine. Make no mistake, this is public hysteria on the scale of the Salem witch hunts. It isn't evil, just misguided.

We could argue about what constitutes a conspiracy but some of the above would seem to lean that way.

Whilst you may not doubt the actual satellite readings or temperature records some do. They misrepresent data harmonization without understanding how or why it is done and they ignore the fact that many reading harmonizations are in fact down rather than up. They suggest that scientist are biased in order to make money however they rarely apply the same scepticism to perhaps a geologist who may have work or wish to work for the companies that employ geologists.

A mining vehicle that runs on renewables getting near pure carbon out of the ground more efficiently for BURNING is a great leap forward?

I agree but sometimes you have to take any bit of "progress" you can. What I would hope for is that these vehicles will perform so well that other industries might follow. Many new technologies have to overcome resistance to change and scepticism. It is not much a leap forward but at this stage, I will celebrate any small change.

I wish you could all see the presentations on drones, robots, autonomous vehicles etc. mines are gearing up to run on electric loaders and trucks powered by renewables.

Yes, it is interesting as an avid follower of new technology I am quite aware of this.

World's Biggest Battery to Boost Solar in Texas Oil Country

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Caterpillar talks up its new ultra-class electric drive mining trucks - International Mining

This is actually one of the reasons I lean towards optimism. We already see building renewable is the cheaper option. We, of course, need some of this to be base load and storage is becoming much cheaper. The price point at which it becomes a no brainer is close. Most new technologies do require a helping hand in their early days. Governments built highways and other infrastructure to facilitate the wider usage of the car. The cost of building a new airport is not only bourne by the travelling public.

It is difficult to find a CEO of a mining company or petrochemical company that does not at least publicly accept the evidence for anthropomorphic climate change.

Climate Change - Woodside Energy

There are new opportunities if we are clever and forward-looking. New technologies are not built of fairy dust, minerals are still required to build batteries etc

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/climate-change-and-renewables-driving-new-mining-boom-mining-chief-says-20181029-p50cm5.html

As far as climate change goes I suspect that we will never agree and as I say what you or I believe makes little difference. To be honest what I find the most challenging about your opinion is that if you are right we are talking the most massive conspiracy ever involving nearly all the whole scientific community as well almost every scientific body. The only conclusion surely is that NASA etc are corrupt for some reason, you will probably suggest it is to get funding but I would suggest that NASA would do better saying "Hey Donald we can prove climate change is not a problem or not happening, but it will cost a lot" Any proposition that requires a large conspiracy is likely to be problematic. Why are some many so many doubters, not actually climate scientists? Sure this does not make them wrong but many people make claims about cancer but I do not think it is foolish to seek one's treatment from an oncologist rather than an accountant.

I must say I am interested in the way this "conspiracy" would work? when was it started? How do all the space agencies make sure their measurements match? Since NASA data can't be relied upon where you advise someone go for information? Is NASAs aeronautical research dodgy as well?

Will Australia be part of this exciting technology, or will be left behind by the rest of the world (including Tunisia)?

World’s largest battery: 200MW/800MWh vanadium flow battery – site work ongoing

We can always buy technology from China rather than being forward-looking an innovative ourselves.

"Without a degree in Aus, there is only so far one can go in what I do or have done."

I must tell my son that. The only bits of paper he has are his HSC and Cert II in Basic IT from TAFE, which he got as one of his HSC subjects. Lacking a degree must make it hard for him when he is signing six figure contracts with clients for his Digital Marketing skills. He got to the starting line through hard work and having a goal. It also helped that he has the Gift of the Gab when it comes to business.

Yep same here. My son was home educated, at 15 he did a diploma in PC games production and at 29 has his own company with 8 employees and I think has more money than god. Nothing wrong with a degree andit necessary in many fields it is not the only path to happiness and success.

BOM have nothing to do with climate, they deal with weather.

Whilst BoM may not be as involved in long term climate predictions its data does form a part of climate change evidence. I would have assumed that you would have thought BoM was part of the global conspiracy, By the way, do you believe the global average temperature has increased in the last 100 years (for whatever reason)?

Climate change – trends and extremes

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Were does our BOM, get their money from.?.spacesailor

The BoM gets its money mainly from the government but also through selling its services. It is also routinely audited and found to be professional.

What you are suggesting is that the BoM is telling the government what they want to hear but why would a government who downplays climate change order the BoM to inflate temperatures. Wouldn't it be more logical for BoM say to the government "give us more money and we will make the data agree with your policies"

You actually believe that when Tony Abbott was the leader he was saying to BoM I know I said climate change is crap but can you please adjust the temperatures up to me look foolish?

By the way, you know you can download raw data from BoM for your area perhaps you could do some investigation. Buy a high-quality thermometer and double check their readings Also you can get live data collected from automatic weather stations. It surely would be easy to your nearest station and double check? I can see the current temperature at my local station (Geelong Racecourse) is 15,2C When I was in The RAAF I used to see the RAAF officer checking the weather instruments (before automation) I guess he must have been in on the scam>

Who tells our BoM what temperatures to report." it's a government department, so the government tells them, & if they Don't do what their told, they are Unemployed

By government, you mean this government that actually doesn't accept the science? I dont see the logic in that. Does the equivalent of the BoM in the US take instruction from Trump, sorry but illogical!

The lithium battery types seem to have best life if not fully discharged - I believe they like shallow cycles. The current (sorry for the pun) hybrid vehicles are all use lithium batteries, and work on a 'partial discharge - then top' up usage, and it seems to work.

The nickel cadmium batteries seemed to have best life when deep cycled.

 

I suspect that the EV might be quite happy to have short runs and a top up each night.

 

At least, that's how I understand it. I stand to be corrected.

I think that is about right. my son has a 5 year BMWI3 which I spent the last 2 weeks driving and he just plugs it in every night. He is only using a standard 8amp charger. It is set to charge automatically when the off-peak tariff kicks in. The cost on off-peak is $1 per 100km. At 5 years the battery has only lost 500 wh. He is trading it in on a Tesla 3 when they become available in NZ, I can't wait to drive it.

I believe regarding batteries that there are software limitations imposed, when it says it is empty it is not actually totally flat and the charging regime is controlled for longest battery life.

I have a hypothesis. Please don't think I am trying to make political points. The perceived headline of each parties campaign could be perhaps summed up this way. One party promising to put more money into hospitals and schools and to tackle future problems but perhaps they won't cut tax and may reduce some benefits vs the other party saying we won't spend more on those things but we will make sure you get a few extra in tax relief. This is an oversimplification but perhaps some people are too embarrassed to tell the pollster that they place there own self-interest above more social orientated goals. To put it more crudely if someone publicly offered me $50 and said you can keep it or help improve education or the health system I would find it hard to say "nope I want the $50" As I say just a hypothesis with no evidence.