octave

https://lavablue.com.au/articles/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-the-energy-transition/

Historically, the alarm over mineral scarcity is not new. In 1924, copper expert Ira Joralemon predicted a shortage of copper, essential for electrical power, which would threaten the basis of civilization.

“... the age of electricity and of copper will be short. At the intense rate of production that must come, the copper supply of the world will last hardly a score of years. ... Our civilization based on electrical power will dwindle and die.”

Contrary to this prediction, copper production has increased twenty-fold in the hundred years since that prediction was made. One might wonder if future generations will regard the current focus on today's critical minerals as misplaced concern, given the dynamic nature of technological and industrial development. Let’s dig a bit deeper.

Interestingly, technology continues to progress.  Whilst opinions seem the vary on the future supply of copper, other options are coming into play.  I have read that this technology could be used for EVs but even if not, substituting an aluminium cast coil in less crucial applications will surely free up copper.     Many traditional uses of copper are changing, for example, the use of PEX rather than copper for plumbing.   

https://een.ec.europa.eu/partnering-opportunities/cast-aluminium-or-copper-coils-next-generation-e-drives

https://castcoil.de/

Extracting anything from the earth comes at a cost.  The less we have to extract the better. Drilling for oil has a pretty large environmental costs.

If you are right then the costs of products requiring copper will increase. These products will naturally fall out of favour.

Here is a more succinct way of putting it.

Despite increased demand for copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in RESERVES have grown, and there is more IDENTIFIED copper available to the world than at any other time in history.

https://icsg.org/long-term-availability-of-copper/

1 minute ago, old man emu said:

Therefore it is a falsehood to say "there is more of the metal available today than at any other time in history".

I take that to mean "available" as in what we are able to mine. This is an increasing amount because exploration techniques and mining techniques improve.   As an example, years ago, there was thought to be 50 years supply of crude oil left.  Today, that number remains the same. Why?  Because this time frame is based on "known reserves", as time passes, we have learned how to find and extract oil that in the past was undetectable or too difficult to extract.   When the quote says "there is more of the metal AVAILABLE today than at any other time in history, it means that methods of discovery have improved and also extraction.   Available DOES NOT mean that the Earth's amount of copper has grown.  This applies to oil as well, -  "known reserves"   

I can only speak for myself, but especially as I have gotten older, I have become more sensitive to motion sickness, not throwing up, but feeling nauseous in cars and trains.   On our recent trip around NZ on the South Island, we rented a car (IC). As we were travelling with my son and his partner, he did all the driving, so my wife and I were relegated to the back.  As usual, I felt off colour (but suffered in silence), especially on winding roads.  Back on the North Island, we did a road trip in the Tesla, again wife and I sat in the back.  Same winding roads, however, this time I felt completely fine.   I have no idea whether the form of propulsion played any part in it.  I do wonder whether the glass roof played some part in it. I even found I could read something on my phone.

I do not know whether this is really a thing or not. I few things do occur to me, though.   There is a suggestion that regenerative braking might be one issue.  I guess one you reduce or turn it off, Simple. I do have doubts about this. As a passenger, I cannot tell if regenerative braking is engaged or not.   Another thing mentioned in the article is the brisk acceleration of most EVs. 

Another suggestion in the article is   -   "Another factor is the lack of engine noise. The familiar sound of a gasoline engine helps the brain prepare for movement." -      I mean, if there is anything in this, are we stuck with having noisy vehicles?   

I have no idea if there is solid science behind this, but certainly it is the first time I have heard this.  I am sure there was resistance to getting off a horse and into a car or plane.

Just to add to the studies regarding EVs.  One study suggests that EVs have 80% more "issues" and a German study shows EVs have a lower breakdown rate.

Germany’s Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club (ADAC) published an analysis of breakdowns attended by its “Yellow Angel” service responders. The breakdown rate for combustion engines was 9.4 breakdowns per 1,000 vehicles in 2024, compared to just 3.8 for electric cars.

Study shows EVs suffer fewer breakdowns than ICE vehicles

Here is a transcript for Unbiased Straight Facts website

A NEW STUDY INTO ELECTRIC VEHICLES HAS FOUND THEY BREAK DOWN FAR LESS OFTEN THAN GAS-POWERED CARS.

BUT, DIFFERENT RECENTLY RELEASED DATA FROM A SEPARATE ORGANIZATION IS CLAIMING EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE.

RESEARCH BY THE GERMAN AUTOMOBILE CLUB INDICATES EVS MANUFACTURED IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER BREAKDOWN RATES THAN THEIR GAS AND DIESEL COUNTERPARTS.

THEIR STATISTICS SHOW EVS BUILT BETWEEN 2020 AND 2022 HAD AN AVERAGE BREAKDOWN RATE OF 4.2 PER 1,000 VEHICLES-

LESS THAN HALF THE 10.4 PER 1,000 RATE OBSERVED AMONG COMBUSTION ENGINE CARS.

HOWEVER, THE UK’S AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION HAS CAUTIONED AGAINST ASSUMING ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE MORE RELIABLE.

THEY SAY EVS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATE OF BREAKDOWNS, POINTING TO CHALLENGES UNIQUE TO ELECTRIC MODELS—SUCH AS JAMMED CHARGING CABLES AND TECHNICAL GLITCHES.

ALTHOUGH, THE AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION’S FINDINGS DID ALSO CLAIM THAT MOST EV ISSUES ARE FIXABLE ON THE ROADSIDE-

WITH 90% OF BREAKDOWNS BEING RESOLVED WITHOUT A TOW—COMPARED TO 86% FOR GAS AND DIESEL VEHICLES.

IN TRYING TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE TWO CONFLICTING DATA SETS-

IT IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT WHAT INTERESTS THE PROVIDERS OF THIS INFORMATION MAY BE TRYING TO PROMOTE.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE GERMAN AUTOMOBILE CLUB’S PRO-ELECTRIC VEHICLE REPORT COMES AS THE ORGANIZATION OPERATES A NETWORK OF EV CHARGERS ACROSS GERMANY-

AND HAS PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO INITIATIVES THAT PROMOTE ELECTRIC MOBILITY.

MEANWHILE, ONE OF THE AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION’S OWNERS, CVC CAPITAL PARTNERS, HAS INVESTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN MULTIPLE OIL AND GAS COMPANIES AROUND THE WORLD.

The problem with reliability surveys is that there are often vested interests at play ON BOTH SIDES.

A new study conducted by Europe’s largest automobile association has found that electric vehicles (EVs) are less prone to breaking down than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles of the same age, which can suffer two and a half times as many breakdowns as electric cars.

EVs more reliable than ICE vehicles, with the best and worst electric cars identified  (April 2025)

 I think the language in the 80% story is interesting.  In one iteration of this story it says 80% more "issues" and in another 80% more problems I would love to see the raw data.   The closest the article comes to data is;

"The most common issues for electric cars include faulty charging systems and poor assembly, such as misaligned body panels and loose interior fittings."

Only one of these issues relates the the car being an EV. I know early Teslas had alignment issues but I understand this has been mostly fixed. There is absolutely no reason why, for example, an MG4 EV should have any more body panel issues than its IC counterpart.

Another issue is that many EVs have software that reports even minor issues automatically.   It is a common story in the media that Tesla is recalling a million vehicles for a fault. When you track down the story, the recall actually means an over-the-air update.

It is important to look at the data dispassionately, whether you favour EVs or IC and to realise that on both sides there are vested interests as well as unconscious bias, again on both sides. 

On 28/06/2025 at 10:41 PM, onetrack said:

This is what is wrong with EV's, and what is still putting people off. They're essentially toasters, you scrap them when the battery is RS. Watch the video right through, the bloke is not anti-EV.

 

Even just doing any repair work on them generally starts to become horrendously costly within a very short time. Mind you, a lot of IC-engined cars of recent design are no better.

 

Thus, my argument remains that the only way to make EV's fully superior to IC-engined vehicles, is to build them with swappable batteries. It is idiocy to keep building EV's with batteries that are essentially part of the chassis and body.

 

 

 

Turns out that this vehicle is back on the road.  

I believe most petrol stations make most of their profit from their convenience stores.  I suspect this is why pay at the pump is still relatively rare; they need you to come inside. I often use a BP app which means I don't have to go inside to pay however there are all sorts of discounts on shop items that I could only redeem by going inside.

My son's first EV was a BMW I3 Rex (range extender). This is not really a Hybrid.  It had a built-in motor, which I believe was a BMW motorcycle motor.  When the battery got to a certain level (which I think you could decide) the motor would automatically start up and replenish the charge (with certain limitations) 

This concept was discontinued as battery tech improved.

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/one-week-2016-bmw-i3-rex

So here is an extremely detailed tour of Redwood Materials, a battery recycling company.   This video is an hour long, so I guess most people won't watch it so here are a few key points.

This business is profitable, and it does not receive any federal subsidies.

Apart from making money selling materials recovered from batteries, it also makes cathodes.

At the 38-minute mark, it shows you another one of its income streams.

They have 20MW of Solar panels

They have 60MW of battery storage, which comes from 800 used EV battery packs.

As well as using this power for the factory, it is able to sell power to the neighbouring data centre at a price less than the grid and still make a profit.

8 minutes ago, old man emu said:

I find it mind-boggling just how many bytes have been created and stored since Mankind started storing information this way.

I agree, but I also marvel at how long we have been constantly burning petrol. I wonder how many litres of petrol has been burned around the world in the time it takes to type this.  

I am not sure how many EV battery packs end up in landfills fill however, this is and will be getting more and more absurd., A battery pack with 70% of its original capacity is still useful.  Here are just 2 examples

Enel inagurates 10 MWh second-life battery project at Italian airport

2 minutes ago, old man emu said:

Imagine the data storage requirements for all that data. Gunna use a lot of electricity.

Probably no worse than digitising everyone's medical records and certainly not a deal breaker

50 minutes ago, onetrack said:

The EV full transition has yet to play out, and recycling is the area where EV's are carrying a major burden that goes directly against their "green" credentials.

EV batteries are being recycled (happy to post links)    One thing that makes it difficult is that there simply is not enough supply of dead batteries. yet. Remember that when a battery pack is no longer good enough for a car it has second-life uses. (,Again happy to post links)

Of course, we need to be working towards a circular economy.  This is in progress.  The fact that there is only 1 recycler in Australia is a result of a tiny EV market here.  In the US the 3 biggest recyclers are Li-Cycle, Redwood Materials and Cirba Solutions. In China the leading recyclers are Ganfeng Lithium, GEM and HUAYOU. In Europe there is Umicore, BSAF, Stena SNAM Altilium and SungEel

I would love to see the source of this "information"  Firstly, a 2020 EV is still under warranty.  My son's Tesla is a 2019 model and has minimal battery degradation.  So, how does it qualify as scrap?  I particularly like Redwood Industries who use residual power from the power packs that come in to be recycled to power the machinery. I think some other companies are also doing this

When we visit New Zealand, we notice a larger percentage of  EV, especially older ones.  We see many Nissan Leafs.

According to AI 

"Approximately 23,308 used Nissan Leafs, primarily the first-generation models, are on New Zealand roads as used imports. These first-generation Leafs, produced from 2010 to 2017, are a common sight in New Zealand due to their affordability as used imports. While many are still in good condition, some may have aging batteries with reduced range." 

50 minutes ago, onetrack said:

At some stage, very soon, EV battery manufacturers MUST concentrate on the recyclability and ease of recycling EV batteries, or we stand to leave a legacy of mounds of EV and Lithium battery waste to our future generations.

You talks s if no one in the industry or government is addressing any problems  

From Feb 2027, The EU will require every battery to have a Passport. This will track every EV battery in the EU for its full life cycle from mining until its end.

It is in the interests of EV manufacturers to ensure a more circular economy in terms of materials.  Remember when cobalt was the boogie man? These days most manufacturers use very little.  I believe LFP batteries do not contain any Cobalt. As well as that Sodium batteries are starting to be used with several cars on the market already using them.

Here is an extremely detailed analysis of swap vs charge.  It is quite long and nerdy, but worth watching.   For those who are interested but don't want to invest 34 minutes, you can jump to the 29:52 point for s succinct summary. 

Just 2 further points:  How many swap stations would be required to replace the Shenzhen charging hub (637 chargers and a throughput of 3300 cars per day)?

If a swapping facility needs more than one battery capacity or physical size, then that number grows.  I am not sure if this is a good use of resources.

7 hours ago, onetrack said:

All that is required is a standard battery design and shape.

I think that simplifies a huge problem.  There would have to be at least several form factors for very different cars  (Rivian - Mini).  I feel a problem is that this would lead to the car being designed around the battery, which could hold innovation.

I agree that phones should have replaceable batteries (actually you can change the batt on just about any phone but it is a bit onerous)   The non swappable battery is just not to make more money but does actually serve a purpose.  A couple of months ago I slipped while getting out of my kayak and I fell into chest deep water with my phone in my pocket. The phone was well and truly submerged but it was fine. Any way I digress.

7 hours ago, onetrack said:

EV's need to last 30 or 40 years, the same as IC-engined cars, otherwise the level of discarded EV vehicles will become a massive waste problem.

Whoa there, that is a big claim. An IC car can last 40 years or more, but this is rare and calls for meticulous maintenance.  I have never had a new car and my cars do tend to be older but at some point, mechanics start to complain that they cant get that spare part that you need to get back on the road. Do we want to drive around in a 40 year car in terms of safety features?

8 hours ago, onetrack said:

The vehicle life can be extended substantially.

There are early EVs around that have had their  battery replaced. Initially this was expensive however the price is falling.  There are 3rd party battery solutions.

Cost:

40 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $6,500 - $7,500. 

62 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $8,500 - $9,500

24 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $3,000 - $5,000. 

30 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $3,500 - $4,500. 

8 hours ago, onetrack said:

The buyer can buy an EV much cheaper, because it comes without a battery.

I am not sure about that but I will have a look around. It stands to reason that the battery has to be paid for somehow. The battery swap station is not supplying the battery for nothing.   Battery leasing, I imagine, would be cheaper up front however, not in the long run.  It is like renting a house is cheaper up front than buying a house.

8 hours ago, onetrack said:

Battery renting makes more sense, just as BBQ gas bottles have gone that way.

When I lived in the bush, I used to go through a 9kg cylinder a week.  With the cylinder swap system, you do need to start with a cylinder or pay more for the first one. Mostly I would get them refilled because it was much cheaper.

8 hours ago, onetrack said:

No longer will you have to scrap your perfectly good car

Batteries ARE lasting the distance (see the research). The standard battery warranty is 8 years and 160,000 km, and some now are 10 years or 250,000 km.  If I buy a new EV with a brand-new swappable battery and the first time I swap, I may get a battery that is towards the end of its life.

8 hours ago, onetrack said:

toast, and it's built into the car,

Although I think Tesla batteries form part of the structure, this does not mean they are not replaceable.

What about the convenience and economy of charging at home?    

I believe Nio charges to 90%.  The charging rate slows down substantially for that last portion of the charge.   My son charges his EV to 80% however, for a road trip, he will charge it to 100% He is able to manage his own charging regime.

8 hours ago, onetrack said:

Taxis in China are primarily, battery-swap models.

This is not correct. The majority of Taxis in China are not battery swap models.

"In China, most electric vehicle (EV) taxis utilize plug-in charging rather than battery swapping. While battery swapping is an option, particularly for commercial vehicles like taxis and logistics trucks, plug-in charging remains the dominant method for EVs in general. China is also rapidly expanding its network of both battery swap stations and fast-charging stations." 

To be clear, I am not against battery swapping, and I see room for both, but when I eventually purchase an EV, I want to charge it mostly at home from relatively cheap (at the moment) overnight power or my excess solar. 

This is one example of an early EV. EVs of this vintage had poor battery management and no battery cooling.  In the last 10 years, battery chemistry and construction have improved massively.  Don't take my word for it, just search for rigorous studies.  If you hope to convince me, you need to post something more than one of the very early examples of an EV

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2024/12/existing-ev-batteries-may-last-up-to-40-longer-than-expected+

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ev-battery-longevity-concerns-unfounded-study-finds

When it comes to battery swap, I think there is probably a place for it, but let's face it, it is not the solution for recharging large numbers of EVs  If you look at countries that are way ahead on EV adoption, battery swaping does not seem to be a flourishing area of enterprise. Of course, at this stage, only one or two models are compatible. The idea that every EV could take the same battery regardless of whether it is a 2-seat convertible a family sedan or an enormous 4-wheel drive a little problematic. The battery for a Rivian is not going to fit in an EV Mini

As an example, my son (if his car had a swappable battery) could drive to work for 4 or 5 days and then go to a battery swap centre and spend 5 or 10 minutes getting the battery swapped (assuming no queue) and pay a fee that covers the cost of the electricity, fitting etc. or he could drive into his garage once or twice a week, plug the car in and forget it.  At 5 cents a kWh overnight it is hard to see how battery swap could compete.   Tesla batteries are exceeding expectations, so what would be the benefit?

Apart from that, how would battery swap stations work in the situation in this clip?     637 chargers serving 3300 cars a day  

https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/how-long-ev-batteries-really-last-according-to-new-data/

Apparently, commercial building owners can lease their roof space to a company that will put up solar panels. 

https://upstreamenergy.com.au/solar-solutions/roof-licensing

I have just been reading about megachargers.  I think perhaps what is being missed by those who say you can't supply enough power to charge 10 vehicles simultaneously at a fast rate is the fact that these megacharge facilities that exist right now rely on storing energy in a large battery (battery buffering).  These batteries can be charged 24/7 from the grid and supported by solar, etc.  

China's ultrafast EV charging station can charge 20 cars in 8 minutes

I have often come across or been sent this cartoon or similar versions. 

Besides the fact that most grids do not rely solely on coal and the fact that every year the percentage of renewables increases, it ignores the fact that petrol and diesel are also reliant on power from the grid.  Of course we need to compare like with like, so for EVs this must include all inputs and likewise for IC 

According to AI