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octave

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Everything posted by octave

  1. I think this has changed with the advent of craft beer pubs. My local before I moved was called "Two Birds Brewery" I heard the owners interviewed and they talked about how in this type of pub there were more female customers. Rather than being a down 9 pints type of place, there are now often a vast range of beers, and they tend not to be served onto a soggy bar towel. When at a new location, we always look for the local craft beer establishment, and usually we find a more or less equal gender balance. https://shedefined.com.au/international-womens-day/meet-the-women-breaking-the-gender-divide-in-the-beer-industry/
  2. Indeed. I think back to the early eighties, when my most sophisticated means of communication was the humble telephone. A call interstate had to wait till Sunday evening, when it would be less expensive. If someone had told me that one day everyone would have a phone in their pocket that was also a powerful computer I would have had trouble believing them. Likewise, the idea that the majority of the world would be connected by this internet thingy would have seemed absurd. Technological development has not suddenly stopped. The rapid development of telecommunications systems over the last 20 to 30 years is an indicator of what is possible. There is no reason that the power grid we have today is the endpoint of technological development. It is all too easy to believe everything that can be done has been done.
  3. You are not wrong there. I booked a flight from Avalon to Adelaide return for $108. There was an even cheaper option, one way for $44. I did book this before the fuel crisis, though. This is obscenely cheap.
  4. I am by no means an expert in this, however, everything I read suggests that home batteries that are part of a VPP can help maintain grid frequency. Understanding the Types of Grid Support the Battery Provides When a home battery joins a VPP, it can play very different roles depending on what the grid needs. Some of the most common use cases today are described as follows. Frequency Regulation The electric grid must keep its alternating-current frequency within tight limits (in AU, around 50 Hz). If demand suddenly rises or a generator trips, frequency may drop. A battery participating in frequency regulation can respond almost instant, charging or discharging quickly to restore balance. Frequency regulation often commands relatively high compensation per unit of energy or service provided. Demand Response (DR) via Storage Demand response in AU/NZ refers to any action that reduces net demand on the grid during tight supply conditions or high-price periods, either by curtailing or shifting flexible loads, or by using behind-the-meter resources such as batteries so a site draws less electricity from the grid when called upon. Depending on the programs, homeowners get predictable compensation for simply being available, or the payment to homeowners in DR-type programs is typically linked to how much energy is saved or how much load power is reduced. https://www.franklinwh.com/au/blog/how-virtual-power-plants-are-changing-home-battery-use
  5. Inverters don't contribute to the grid. Batteries help the grid because they smooth out peaks in consumption. There is a huge peak around the time people get home from work and cook dinner. Those people with their own batteries are helping by not contributing to this peak, and those who sell a portion of their stored electricity back to the grid are reducing the need to ramp up power stations or peaker plants. Most of the world is moving in this direction; can they all be wrong?
  6. I am not quite clear what you are saying here, but here is my understanding of it. During the day I am using my own electricity. My excess is sold to the grid for a tiny 8 cents a kWh, which they resell for 30ish cents a kWh. I appreciate that I am using the network; however, I would expect that the large disparity between the price they by my KWh and the price they resell takes into account the cost of the network of this transaction.
  7. In Europe, they are now doing what is called balconnny solar. It's pretty much plug and play, and renters can take it with them if they move. There are also other schemes, such as solar sharing schemes. These are in their infancy; however, but they are evolving as technology improves. Solar systems for apartment buildings Community Solar Banks Program The Australian Government’s Community Solar Banks Program is supporting the installation of shared solar and clean energy technology in apartment buildings and other multi-unit dwellings. The government’s investment will provide shared solar systems and help to lower electricity costs for up to 25,000 households. Shared community solar banks help households who can’t install their own systems. This will allow more households to benefit from renewable energy, including people who: rent their homes live in apartments can't afford to install their own system. The Australian Government is partnering with states and territories to deliver the program. To find out what support is available in your state or territory and how to apply, visit the Community Solar Banks Program page .
  8. I understand that point, but it assumes the way we generate and distribute electricity can’t evolve. The old model—large central power stations feeding passive consumers—is already changing. The grid is becoming more dynamic, with energy coming from multiple sources. Households like mine don’t just draw from the grid—we also contribute to it. Over time, things like microgrids or suburb-level battery sharing could become part of that evolution. There’s also an energy security angle. A system that relies less on a few large power stations and more on distributed generation is generally more resilient—failures are less likely to cause widespread outages. Since installing my system, I’ve generated about 36 MWh of electricity. If that had come from coal, it would have required roughly 15–18 tonnes. That’s a significant amount of fuel avoided, even at the household level. I do recognise the tension: I still rely on the grid, and without a battery I’m exporting a lot of energy. But that just reinforces the point—the grid needs to adapt to a two-way flow of energy rather than a one-way model. In my case, I haven’t installed a battery yet because my usage is low and the payback period was around 20+ years. That said, batteries offer other benefits like backup during outages and helping stabilise the grid. My next step will likely be an EV with vehicle-to-load (V2L). That effectively gives me a battery I can use to store excess solar and provide backup power. More advanced options like V2H or V2G are still expensive, but even V2L starts to shift the model. I accept that this kind of change may disrupt traditional generators and retailers—but that’s not unusual. Energy systems have always evolved, and this is just the next stage.
  9. untitles 522E modified2-1.mp4
  10. Well, this isn't good. I live about 5km from here, luckily, so far the wind seems to be blowing away from us. This surely is not good, given the fuel situation.
  11. If you are referring to the whole world, well, they are building more. Globally, pumped hydro has ~200 GW of installed capacity That represents the vast majority (over 90%) of long-duration energy storage Dozens of new projects are still being built each year So while individual schemes are large and relatively few compared to, say, solar farms, they are widespread and globally significant. 📍 Where are they? 🇨🇳 China (world leader) Largest total capacity (~50+ GW) Massive new projects like Fengning (one of the world’s biggest) Hundreds more under construction 👉 China uses pumped hydro heavily to stabilise its huge wind and solar buildout. 🇯🇵 Japan ~20+ GW installed One of the earliest adopters Built to balance nuclear and now renewables 🇺🇸 United States ~16–17 GW installed Famous example: Bath County (often called the “world’s largest battery”) 🇪🇺 Europe (widely distributed) Major countries: Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Spain Example: Germany has multiple plants used for grid balancing Scotland hosts many of the UK’s biggest schemes 🇦🇺 Australia Existing: Shoalhaven scheme (NSW) Tasmanian hydro system Major new build: Snowy 2.0 (huge expansion project) 🌎 Other notable regions South America – Brazil and Chile expanding capacity India – growing fast to support solar Africa – early-stage development (e.g., South Africa) 👍 Are they successful? Short answer: Yes—very successful, but with caveats ✅ Strengths 1. Proven and reliable Technology has been used for 50+ years Extremely well understood and dependable 2. Grid stabilisation Acts like a giant battery: Stores excess power Releases it when needed 3. Long lifespan Often lasts 50–100 years (much longer than batteries) 4. Scale Can store huge amounts of energy (hours to days) ⚠️ Limitations 1. Geography matters Needs suitable elevation and water Not every location works economically 2. High upfront cost Big civil engineering projects (tunnels, dams) 3. Long build times Projects like Snowy 2.0 take years and can face delays 4. Environmental concerns Land use, water impacts, and community opposition 🤔 Big-picture takeaway Pumped hydro is not new or experimental—it’s the backbone of global energy storage. It’s especially valuable as countries add more wind and solar. While batteries are growing fast, pumped hydro still dominates for large-scale, long-duration storage. 🌍 How much is being built? Around 100+ GW of pumped hydro is already under construction globally The total development pipeline is enormous (~600 GW) Annual additions are rising and could double to ~16.5 GW per year by 2030 👉 That’s not a niche build-out—that’s a major global infrastructure push. 📍 Where is the construction happening? 🇨🇳 China (dominates the boom) By far the biggest builder 200+ GW under construction alone Adding multiple large plants every year 👉 China is essentially treating pumped hydro as core grid infrastructure for renewables. 🇮🇳 India & Asia-Pacific Rapid expansion to support solar growth New multi-GW projects announced (e.g. Maharashtra schemes) Strong growth across Asia-Pacific generally 🇪🇺 Europe Lots of medium-sized projects and upgrades Example: New plant in Norway (Illvatn) under construction Hybrid wind + pumped hydro projects (e.g. Crete) 👉 Europe is modernising older hydro + adding storage rather than building mega-dams. 🇺🇸 United States Several projects in development: Example: Seminoe (900 MW) Many more proposed—potential to more than double capacity 🇦🇺 Australia (your backyard) Active pipeline: Kidston (QLD) nearing completion Snowy 2.0 under construction Multiple NSW & QLD proposals ⚠️ But: Some projects have been delayed or cancelled due to cost blowouts or geology issues (e.g. Pioneer-Burdekin) 🌎 Other regions Spain: dozens of projects progressing (25 advancing in 2025 alone) Africa: early but accelerating growth South America: Chile & Brazil expanding 📈 Why the sudden surge? This is the key shift: 👉 Wind and solar are now cheap—but intermittent 👉 Grids need long-duration storage (hours to days) Pumped hydro is: Proven Long-lasting (50–100 years) Scalable to huge sizes That’s why it’s having what’s been described as a “renaissance” in energy systems Reality check (it’s not all smooth) Even though many are being built: ✔ What’s going well Strong government backing Clear role in renewable grids Massive scale possible ✖ What’s slowing things down Long build times (often 7–10 years) Cost overruns (common in big civil projects) Environmental approvals Site-specific risks (geology can kill projects)
  12. Yes, I remember stamps with Magyar from my childhood stamp-collecting phase. According to AI: Magyar is a relatively common surname in Hungary, acting as an ethnic name that means "Hungarian". It is frequently found across the country, particularly in regions with mixed historical ethnicity. As a surname, it is sometimes the result of historical "Magyarization," where families changed foreign-sounding names to more patriotic ones. Key Facts About the Name "Magyar" Meaning: The word magyar is the autonym for Hungarians and means "Hungarian". Origin: The name stems from the ancient Megyer tribe, which was a dominant clan among the Hungarian tribes in the 9th century. Commonality: It is a common surname in Hungary. Related Names: Similar to other ethnic surnames in Hungary, such as Horváth (Croat) or Német (German). Distribution: Data shows high concentrations of individuals with the surname Magyar in areas like Budapest and regional centers such as Hajdúszoboszló and Kecskemét. While it means "Hungarian," it is important to note that the country itself is called Magyarország (literally "Land of the Magyars") by its inhabitants.
  13. They do look like they are having some export success with a recent 5-year $8.4 million, so definitely a company to watch. Tindo signs five-year deal to export Australian made solar panels to Vietnam Major Export Markets Vietnam In June 2025, Tindo signed an $8.4 million, five-year deal with Thanh Do Australia to supply 15MW of solar panels for infrastructure and clean energy projects in Vietnam. This is the company's longest export agreement to date. Pacific Islands: Tindo panels are used for critical infrastructure in the South Pacific, including landing stations for the East Micronesia Cable in Nauru and Kiribati. They were selected specifically for their ability to withstand high humidity and cyclone conditions. India The company began shipping small orders to India as early as 2014, starting with demo systems for farms in regions like Hyderabad to test performance in hot, sunny climates. m
  14. I did just discovered an Australian solar panel manufacturer called Tindo. I don't know anything about their prices, though. Apparently excellent quality but more expensive. According to AI, 20% to 30% more expensive
  15. Yes, I think the problem is that evolution has left us with “an old brain in a new world.” We’re generally good at spotting and avoiding immediate threats, but much less effective at responding to dangers that build slowly over time. That said, it’s not all bad. Humans have learned an enormous amount about the world we live in. We can cure many diseases and even travel beyond our planet—at least short distances into space. Still, the instincts of our “old brain” are constantly competing with the demands of the modern world. You can see this on a personal level. Most of us know that being overweight, eating poorly, or drinking too much is harmful in the long run—yet many of us continue these behaviours anyway. We’re remarkably good at justifying choices that aren’t in our best interests. This ties into a broader, almost unsettling question. Life appears to exist widely across Earth, which suggests the universe should be teeming with advanced civilisations. Yet, so far, we’ve found nothing—at least in our corner of it. One possible explanation is the idea of “the Great Filter.” This theory proposes that as a civilisation develops, it encounters critical stages where it must either overcome a major challenge or collapse. Nuclear weapons could be one example: a point at which humanity might have destroyed itself. While that risk hasn’t disappeared, it does seem less immediate than it once did, and there are likely other challenges we’ve successfully navigated. It may be that most civilisations fail at one of these stages. If that’s the case, it’s possible we may have already progressed further than many others. If so—well done us.
  16. Interesting.
  17. I wouldn't worry about that. Here is the jury selection process (at least in NSW) If the defence believes an Afghan (f one happened to be selected) would be prejudiced to the defence, they can challenge, as can the prosecution. The Jury Selection Process: Selection: The Sheriff randomly selects people from the NSW electoral roll within a court's district. Notice and Summons: Residents receive a notice of inclusion for a 12-month period, followed by a summons to attend court on a specific date. Eligibility: Most people registered to vote are eligible, though some criminal convictions, legal disqualifications, or occupations (e.g., police) may exclude them. Exemption: Individuals can request to be excused for reasons like health, undue hardship, or prior service. Empanelling (The Ballot): At court, the Judge's Associate randomly draws cards from a ballot box to select 12 jurors for a trial. Challenges: The defense and crown can each challenge (object to) up to three potential jurors without giving a reason.
  18. People often express disbelief that a gas making up only 0.04% of the atmosphere could have any meaningful impact. Consider ozone (03). Its concentration varies with altitude, peaking between about 15 km and 35 km at just 2–8 parts per million (ppm). By comparison, carbon dioxide (CO₂) sits around 420–425 ppm and is rising by roughly 2.4–2.6 ppm per year. Ozone exists in far smaller concentrations than CO₂, yet its role is critical—without the ozone layer, life on Earth would not survive. Small percentages can still have enormous effects.
  19. When anyone presents a quote, I always look for its source. I can't find any evidence that this was ever said. 🔎 Where the “2 metres in 10 years” claim comes from There is no verifiable speech, interview, or document where Al Gore says: Sydney Harbour will rise 2 metres in 10 years What does exist is a mix of: 1. 🌊 Misinterpreted statements from An Inconvenient Truth In An Inconvenient Truth, Gore discusses: Potential multi-metre sea level rise But only if major ice sheets collapse And over long timescales (decades to centuries) Some critics later compressed that into “he predicted metres soon”, and then it got shortened again into “2 metres in 10 years”—which is not what he said. 2. 🧩 Blending with other exaggerated or wrong claims Online posts often mix together different claims, for example: “20 feet (≈6 metres)” long-term possibilities General warnings about future flooding Local places like Sydney or New York added in later Over time, these get stitched into a fake quote that sounds specific and outrageous. 3. 📱 Social media meme evolution Fact-checkers have looked at similar Sydney-specific claims and found: Memes often use photos of Sydney Harbour to “prove” no change These ignore tides and proper measurement Long-term data actually shows rising sea levels, not flat or falling Once those memes circulate, people attach a made-up quote to them (like the Gore one) to give them credibility. 4. 📊 Real data contradicts the narrative Sea levels have risen 15–25 cm since 1901 globally Sydney tide gauges show a clear upward trend, not just 2 mm total So the “only 2 mm” part is also misleading—it cherry-picks or misunderstands data. 🧠 What’s really going on here This claim is basically a game of telephone: Real science: “multi-metre rise possible over long timeframes” Simplified: “metres of rise could happen” Distorted: “metres soon” Meme version: “2 metres in 10 years in Sydney” By the end, it sounds like a bold failed prediction—but it was never actually said. ⚖️ Bottom line ❌ No evidence Gore made that 10-year, 2-metre prediction ❌ The Sydney Harbour example is added later, not original ⚠️ The claim is a fabricated quote built from distortions ✅ Actual measurements show gradual, real sea level ris
  20. Seems reasonable to me. Recruit people who speak the language and understand the culture of those countries the defence forces are likely to engage with
  21. Jeez, GON, you seem to be really hung up on race
  22. BRS trial could be more than a year away. This case will grind on for years, whereas I suspect the Bondi monster will be well and truly sentenced by then, I would imagine. There will be a bail review hearing on 17 April. So no, your theory is not supported by facts. Long-Term Estimates: Legal analysts note that cases of this magnitude "grind on for years". A comparison is often drawn to Oliver Schulz, the first Australian soldier charged with a war crime. He was charged in March 2023, but his trial is not expected until 2027, representing a roughly four-year gap from arrest to trial. If Roberts-Smith's case follows a similar trajectory, the trial might not begin until 2029 or 2030.
  23. GON the BRS arrest didn't just happen out of the blue. Remember, he has already been found in his defamation case to have, on the balance of probabilities, committed the crimes he is now charged with, and this was long before the Bondi atrocity. Of course, being found civilly liable requires a lesser burden of proof than being found criminally liable. He does deserve the presumption of innocence in the criminal case until the verdict. There is this narrative floating around the net that suggests if you don't proclaim his innocence, you are somehow not supporting the troops or unpatriotic. The thing to remember is that these alleged crimes only came to light because 21 of his colleagues were willing to give evidence against him. Are we to suppose that these SAS soldiers formed such a conspiracy against him? I imagine it would have taken great courage for these soldiers to give evidence against him.
  24. CSIRO and NASA, etc., loony left, really. So, do you believe CSIRO is incompetent or maliciously representing the facts?
  25. There are now guidelines and rules about deorbit or moving to what's called a graveyard orbit FCC 5-Year Rule: The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) adopted rules requiring satellites licensed by the US—or seeking to access the US market—to deorbit within 5 years of mission completion, a significant reduction from the previous 25-year guideline. Enforcement: In 2023, the FCC took its first enforcement action against a company (DISH) for failure to properly deorbit a satellite (EchoStar-7), demonstrating that these regulations are now being legally enforced. International Guidelines: Agencies like NASA and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) provide guidelines, often adopting the 25-year maximum rule for LEO, or moving to "graveyard" orbits for satellites in higher orbits. Exceptions and Grandfathering: Existing satellites are often "grandfathered" in, meaning they do not have to comply with newer, stricter rules immediately. However, new missions must include plans for disposal.
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