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Jerry_Atrick

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Posts posted by Jerry_Atrick

  1. I may be able to go first class if I can keep this up:

    image.thumb.png.c49ff4529fbe03e85a873ee644c8a376.png

     

    I did stray from my system slightly - but to my advantage. I had no idea the betting site I use (which is a "reputable" site as has as betting companies can be) allowed in play betting. I was watching the hawks game and in the 10 minute mark of the final quarter, they were still 2 goals ahead but Port were coming back, albeit still clumsily. For some reason, I went onto the site and saw I could place in-play bets and Port Adelaide were running at 7:1. Since I had the Hawks at 5.25:1, I thought perfect hedge opportunity - throw away £10 of my 42.50 win; or should Port win, pick up an additional £60 Still a win-win... Put a £10 on Port and while I am gutted the Hawks were literally pipped at the post, the betting balance survived.

     

    Although the Hawks bet over Port Adelaide was a speculative bet, it was one made with the belief that they had a very good chance of getting over the line. It doesn't change the core of my system but adds to it. If I see a team is behind and coming back with a good chance of taking it, and I haven't already bet on them, then it may pay to hedge a potential loss depending on what the odds are I took the original bet with and what the odds of the hedge bet are.

     

     

  2. 11 hours ago, nomadpete said:

    Better make it sooner rather than later Jerry, this glut of reds on the wine market cannot last for ever.

    I very much intend to bring sufficient demand to end the glut.

    • Like 1
  3. I wasn't intentind to say that immigrants don't commit crimes or murder people; just, intuitively, without having dived into the numbers, the myth that immigrants bring disproprortionate crime to the country may be a little overrateed.

  4. 10 hours ago, nomadpete said:

    Ever notice that compulsive gamblers start blaming irrational causes when they lose (or win)?

    I guess so...  I would not really know....

     

    I am actually already starting to tire of the thing.. I may just throw the remaining I have on the Hawks this weekend and if they win, just cash out.... or... maybe if they win... it is a sign and I will keep going 😉

     

    • Haha 1
  5. I started life on minicomputers, then went to Burroughs Mainframes (which at the time were better than IBM,but yanks know marketing).

     

    I did migrate to IBM mainframes at what was then Coles Myer...

     

    Here is the latest generation of what, IMHO, is still the existing best corproate and AI platform..

     

    But they aren't as good as marketing as they used to be

     

  6. Wel,, thankfully this week has been very busy and full of what I call.. "career limiting discussions.." such that I didn't get a chance to get my bets on in time this week. Gold Coast absolutely floggingly flogged Geelong in what has to be one of the highest scoring games between two side in a long time.. 100 points (Gellong) to 164 (Glod Coast). I would have picked that cats over the suns any day of the week.. That aurora borrealis (sp?) has wreaked havoc on the game!

     

    Got the rest of my bets in.. One speculative, but if the conservative bets come in, it will be an average of 40%,. Will post results at the end of the weekend.

     

    (Maybe there is a god after all 😉

     

     

  7. I would suggest someone has done the maths and decided it costs more to administer a means-tested system and then combat the attempts at fraud then lining those that don't need it and just let it ride. How many biollionares and cash flow positive millionaires (i.,e. not people who are asset rich and cash poor) do we have as a % of the population.

     

    Of course, they could dor it diffrerently, but, here's the rub.. those uber wealthy people will regail in that $300 as much, iof not more than the pauper just getting by. They love money and it doesn't matter how little or how they come across it.. When I finally get to Aus and see you in a local, let me explain how I know (and no, I am not part of a family or any other dynasty).

  8. Intuitively, I tgend to agree with OIME.. If the murder rate is reducing as a percentage of population and immigration is a signficant factor of population growth, then does it not stand to reason it is likely that, if anything, those of different ethnic cultures are probably even lower than the median per 100K?

  9. The issue is that the money that is collected has to tbe invested... Making life better for everyone doesn't necessarily provide a financial return to the investor or asset manager. For example, building enough shelters for homeless people oesn't pay the rent and then it would require the government to puchase the shelters, which they don't have a bottomloess pit for. Of course, it then becomes a priorotisation call by the government, and ulimatelu, in a democracy anyway, society (did we really vote in messrs Abbot and Morrison knowing full well what they are like?). But, as an asset manager (not that I am one), I am not going to build and operate homeless shelters unless I am goingg to get a return.

    • Sad 1
  10. While that is true (and I used to work on some sim software for mines years ago). it os one of many segments, and, we have to remember, Australia usually allows foreign ownership of such companies (the company I wored for is now in Japanese hands).

     

    On the Warren Buffet angle, he is what is known as a value investor. One of the problems with market valuations is that more money is pouring into the markets throug things like super being available and, in Australia's case, mandated for most of the workforce. This goes to asset managers who hate having cash on their books. So, it creates a demand for investments for which the supply doesn't change much.. Result - higher prices. Of course, that's an oversimplification, but it is one of the issues.. there's simply too much, and of course, being based on human beaviour, sometimes becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy (or profity).

     

    There is no reason that bitcoin should attract the current valuation it does, which is c. USD$62K/coin as I speak. You can't even spend it everywhere. Yet the market has become this self-fulfilling prophecy that assigns value to it.. When you think about it, they are electrons.. that is it.

    • Informative 1
  11. To be honest, they did tease me this time... And I did deviate from my formula, which is part of the reason I am down.. I wasn't entirely happy with my bets this round as most of the games were amongst relative equals. And it proved why I should stick with the plan.. After my Friaday night losses, I just had a niggly feeling that Adelaide and Hawthorn would get over the line, and Collingwood was a set, in deference to any match fixing against West Coast (that game paid 1.05)So, a bit of luck as both the Hawks and Adelaide game could have gone either way - very much so as Adelaide and Brisbane drew, which meant I got my money back.

     

    There are a couple of potential sweet ones next week; need to check who is in and out before making the decision. But, this week provided a salient lesson - stick to the plan and if there is no opportunities according to the plan, head down to the local airfield or something.

     

    I am going to watch the Hawks bathe in the glory of propping up my balance this week...

     

    • Informative 1
  12. Well, this round wasn't my best, so I decided to do a Nick Leeson and double down, bit in a risk averse way. I felt the Hawks were going to win, and they did, netting be a 2.5x return off a relatively small bet, but enough to almost cover the losses.

     

    My investment:

    image.thumb.png.d5f744e2ef22f887d5092a4f1e378acf.png

    James Packer, eat your heart out!

     

    I am £20-ish down on last week..

     

    Have almost enouogh to take the family out to a nice dinner around here.

     

    (or, about half way to an hour in the Warrior)

     

    • Like 1
  13. https://www.walkfree.org/global-slavery-index/country-studies/india/

     

    Back to the reno... in which I feel a bit of a slave.. Not really; terrible joke when you consider those that do live in such conditions.

     

    OK.. as usual, there are going to be setbacks and we have had our first.. Delay in the flooring. Darn it,

     

    Also a week delay in teh builder coming to do the steels in the kitchen, so we delayed destroying the kitchen by a week. Into it today, but it has been more packing. Tomorrow is the destroying.

     

    But, we have to put Acrow props through the kitchen floor and the basement ceiling to the basement floor. And, right where we needed to put the acrows are where all of our rads are stored. So I had to move 20 rads of roughly 45kgs each )some more, some less) to the other side of the basement without a trolley. F! Well, I did it, and I am poopered. Am still sweating.

     

    Steels are in next week... when done, I will take some photos...

     

     

    • Like 1
  14. Hmm.. I am thinking of changing my email address. I have been with yahoo for years - long before gmail and others were a twinkle in their creators' eyes. I remember people suggesting I should change because gmail has released calendars (been using then in yahoo for ages), a messaging app (yep, yahoo had that, too), and many more features where gmail seemed ot be copying yahoo. It did go through a rough patch for aboput 6 months after an ownership change where it wasn't sending or receving email reliably and it did start to fall behind on the services offered - after all, they decided to become a content business and stop their search engine, which although older than Google, wasn't quite as good as Googles. They had fallen behind what Google offered.

     

    But, I persevered as it is a faff to change primary email addresses. But now, I really am tiring of yahoo's email, because, it no longer filters spam and scams like it used to.. and it is not entirely sophisticaed email spoofing/phishing that is getting through. I have had emails from amazon.uk where if I hover over the from address field, it is clearly a naff email. Screwfix is a hardware supplier I buy a lot of stiff from and I have been receiiving scam emails from those so badly purporting to be them, that I can hardly make out it is supposed ot be from them. Yet, they appear in my inbox and not my spam box.  I like yahoo normally.. Their finance content is very good (they have an API that allows me to programatically get prices and volumes to determine my other "betting" addiction).  They no longer have all the other apps they used to, and they have even got rid of their calendar.. but their email was fine.

     

    But, it is time to say see you later...

     

    But, I am dreading the experience.. as @willedoo has had above. I have been searching for some utility to make it esasier even if I have to pay.. but not yet... I'll keep you posted.

    • Informative 1
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